Chapter 260: Loopholes
Li Xin said, "Okay, I'll come over here." After speaking, he put down the phone and hurried to the door of Liu Zhongzhou's office, pushed open the door and went in directly.
"Chairman, are you looking for me?" asked Li Xin as soon as he entered the door.
Liu Zhongzhou pointed to the sofa in the center of the room and said to Li Xin, "You sit down first." ”
Then he picked up the phone and said, "Bring in two cups of coffee." ”
In the past, when Liu Zhongzhou asked Li Xin to come in to arrange work, or when Li Xin came in to report to Liu Zhongzhou, Li Xin was standing at Liu Zhongzhou's desk, and Liu Zhongzhou finished ordering, or Li Xin left immediately after reporting. Opposite Liu Zhongzhou's desk, there was a chair for people who came in to talk about things, and Li Xin had never sat on it.
So now that Liu Zhongzhou asked himself to sit on the sofa, Li Xin was a little puzzled in his heart, and he didn't know what Liu Zhongzhou was going to talk about when he came in today. But Liu Zhongzhou didn't say it himself, and Li Xin didn't want to ask, so he walked over and sat on the sofa according to Liu Zhongzhou's instructions.
A minute or two later, the door to Liu Zhongzhou's office was pushed open again, and Yu Hong walked in with two cups of coffee.
Seeing Yu Hong come in, Liu Zhongzhou got up from his senior chair, walked to the sofa, and motioned for Yu Hong to put the coffee on the coffee table.
Yu Hong put the two cups of coffee in front of Li Xin and Liu Zhongzhou respectively, and when she saw that Liu Zhongzhou didn't say anything anymore, she turned around and went out.
asked the secretary to prepare a cup of coffee for himself, and walked to sit down opposite him, Liu Zhongzhou's behavior made Li Xin puzzled at the same time, and also made Li Xin secretly guess in his heart: It seems that Liu Zhongzhou really wants to talk to himself about something important, otherwise he wouldn't be like this. Judging from Liu Zhongzhou's way of doing things in the past, even if he talks to Vice Chairman Xue Chenzhi, at most he will just hand Xue Chenzhi a cigarette.
This sudden conversation made Li Xin feel puzzled and incomprehensible, but it was Liu Zhongzhou who felt uneasy and apprehensive in his heart.
Because of the shelf issue, it was impossible for Liu Zhongzhou and Li Xin to have a relatively equal conversation before.
Because of the loss and face problems, the conversation between Liu Zhongzhou and Li Xin was deliberately delayed by Liu Zhongzhou, and he hoped to find a better opportunity to do it again, but the development of things could not help Liu Zhongzhou delay any longer. So today's conversation was beyond Liu Zhongzhou's expectations in terms of time, and it came so suddenly.
In fact, after making a phone call to Li Xin, Liu Zhongzhou has been thinking about how this conversation with Li Xin should be started, how to proceed, and how to grasp the scale? He was worried that if he did not grasp the scale well, his image would be damaged.
But despite his thoughts, trying to maintain his dignity and posture in his words as much as possible in the course of the conversation, his actions still revealed something in his heart.
As Li Xin felt, Liu Zhongzhou asked Yu Hong to pour coffee for Li Xin, and then he walked to the sofa opposite Li Xin and sat down.
And all this, Liu Zhongzhou, who has been thinking about how to open his mouth and how to talk, did not realize it.
But even so, Liu Zhongzhou's experience in dealing with this kind of scene is still much older than Li Xin.
It is said that the pipe is an excellent tool for diplomats, and when there is nothing to say, or when there is nothing to say, you can use the pipe to gag your mouth, or you can play with the pipe to hide your nervousness or anxiety.
The cigar in Liu Zhongzhou's hand now has this function, and he put the cigar in his mouth to avoid the embarrassment of being speechless for more than ten seconds after sitting opposite Li Xin. After he calmed down, he put the cigar on the ashtray and flicked the ash, looked at Li Xin, who looked puzzled on the other side, and started the conversation: "What do you think of the current copper price trend?"
For such a technical question, Li Xin was caught, and he replied without thinking: "It should be a rush up and down." ”
Where would Liu Zhongzhou be satisfied with such an answer, he then asked: "Will it continue to rise?"
Li Xin said: "It's hard to say, I can't see for sure. ”
Liu Zhongzhou said: "I heard that you closed all your long positions last month, right?"
Li Xin said: "Yes. Although he was surprised that Liu Zhongzhou could know the news of his liquidation in such detail, he still didn't show it on his face.
Liu Zhongzhou said: "Did you go short on the backhand after closing the long position?"
Li Xin said: "No. ”
Liu Zhongzhou said: "Then your mentality is a bit contradictory, you flatten the long order, which means that you don't continue to be bullish." As the saying goes, the market is like a boat sailing against the current, and if you don't advance, you will retreat. If you close a long position, you should go short with a backhand, which makes sense, if you don't short it, then there is no need to close the long position. ”
Li Xin smiled and said: "Yes, but I still feel that the early increase is a bit big, and I am a little confused about the market outlook and can't see it clearly, so I closed the position." ”
Liu Zhongzhou hesitated for a moment after listening, and finally said the topic of today's conversation: "The price of copper contracts in the second half of next year is still around 58,000 or 59,000, do you think it is feasible to continue to short contracts in the second half of next year?"
Li Xin was shocked when he heard this, and secretly thought: It turns out that Liu Zhongzhou has been thinking about the idea of moving positions all along! But this matter is not trivial, and in the second half of next year, that is, at least eight or nine months from now, how can he see it clearly? If he could see it clearly, he would not be empty now, and he did not know what to do.
This problem is too big, looking at Liu Zhongzhou's posture today, he must give him an opinion, but what should he say, if he is wrong, won't it cause a catastrophe?
Li Xin thought about it quickly, Liu Zhongzhou's analysis just now was also correct, he closed the long order, which means that he did not dare to continue to be bullish, so it should be a relatively reasonable choice to go short on the backhand.
Moreover, in fact, after the copper price reached a high price of 60,000 yuan, it fell rapidly by 5,000 yuan, will the market continue to fall in the future? If the copper price really starts to fall by a wide margin, then Liu Zhongzhou's move to sell short on the forward contract in the second half of next year will bring huge profits. This is an excellent opportunity for the Southern Group to turn defeat into victory in the futures market, and it is completely reasonable for Liu Zhongzhou to think so at this time.
Thinking of this, Li Xin asked, "Chairman, how much do you plan to sell and open a position?"
Liu Zhongzhou said: "30,000 tons. ”
This figure is 50 percent more than the 20,000 tons sold this year, and Li Xin's first feeling after hearing it is: Liu Zhongzhou is gambling, he is betting that this is an opportunity for a sharp decline, and he wants to take this opportunity to earn back the previous loss of 330 million!
Li Xin didn't know how to answer, while he was worried in his heart, he also thought from Liu Zhongzhou's point of view: If Liu Zhongzhou's estimate is correct this time, the copper price will fall from such a high level, and if he sells 30,000 tons, as long as it falls by 11,000 yuan, almost all the previous losses will be made up.
Suddenly, Li Xin thought of a question and asked, "Chairman, if you sell 30,000 tons next year, the funds may not be enough, right?"
Liu Zhongzhou said: "I have roughly calculated that after the contracts in November and December are closed, there will be no problem in terms of funds. ”
Li Xin said: "I mean, if you hold a position in the contract in the second half of next year, you will encounter a problem of repaying the bank loan, I remember that the two hundred million yuan we borrowed this year should be returned to the bank in June and July next year, if the loan and interest of these two hundred million yuan are repaid to the bank, the remaining funds are not enough to sell and open a position of 20,000 tons, let alone 30,000 tons." ”
Liu Zhongzhou frowned and asked, "Is it to repay the bank loan in June and July?"
Li Xin said: "I remember that it should be, should you call Minister Zheng up and ask him?"
Liu Zhongzhou didn't speak, he really didn't consider this problem that Li Xin said before, and now when Li Xin said this, he was also shocked: In this way, the gap in funds will be quite large.
He wanted to do what Li Xin said, and asked Li Xin to call Zheng Guorui up and ask in detail, what is the repayment date of the 200 million loan?
But he thought about it, if Zheng Guorui was called up like this, the matter of talking to Li Xin by himself was known to a third person, which he didn't want to see. Besides, judging from Li Xin's always cautious and strict style, Li Xin should probably be right at this time, so Liu Zhongzhou felt that there was no need to call Zheng Guorui up.
Liu Zhongzhou suddenly felt very embarrassed, he thought about it and didn't want to lose price and face in the process of talking with Li Xin, but he didn't expect to make such a low-level mistake: the funds are not enough, how can he hold a position for a long time?
He didn't know what to say for a moment, and fell silent with his cigar in his mouth.
Li Xin saw Liu Zhongzhou bowing his head and pondering, and he didn't know what to say, so he took a sip of the coffee on the coffee table.
After a while, Liu Zhongzhou said slowly: "In terms of bank loans, it is not difficult to repay old loans and new ones. ”
As soon as he finished saying this, Liu Zhongzhou seemed to suddenly remember something, and said: "Eh, no, I remember that our mortgage loan is bonds, and after repaying this loan, these bonds will be far more than 200 million yuan after cashing in, so the funds are not a problem at all, and there is no need to borrow again." ”
Li Xin said, "Yes? I don't know much about this. ”
Liu Zhongzhou said: "Yes, yes, I forgot if you didn't mention it, that's what happened, you don't need a loan to open a position next time, plus more than 200 million funds are enough." ”
Li Xinli thought for a moment and said: "But these funds still include the working capital drawn from the sales company and the smelter, right? If these two parts of the funds are removed, the funds after the bond is cashed only are not enough to open a position of 30,000 tons, not to mention that there will be other troubles when the price fluctuates sharply." ”