Li Xin asked in surprise: "Will it lose so much?" Although he could roughly estimate that the mine of the new mine was no longer profitable, he didn't expect to lose so much at all, so Liu Zhongzhou's words surprised him very much.

Liu Zhongzhou said: "Of course, although this is only a rough estimate, it should not be too different from the actual situation. If you think about it, for a loan of more than 100 million yuan, the loan interest will be calculated at 8%, and the money paid to the bank every year will be about 140 million, and if the copper price has been around 70,000 yuan, the new mine will only lose 70 or 80 million yuan a year. ”

Li Xin patted his head and said: "That's right, as long as the mine price is upside down, the interest is a huge expense, and whether there is a profit or not, you have to pay off the bank's interest before you can talk!"

Li Xin unknowingly made another mistake: the money he used for investment was his own, so he never had to consider the interest on bank loans, but would use a year's bank deposit interest to measure whether his investment income was cost-effective. However, more than 100 million yuan of the funds used by Jin Changxing to purchase the mine came from bank loans, and the interest to be paid to the bank on this loan is a link that cannot be escaped and must be considered.

If we include the 8% annual loan interest paid to the bank in this link, then even if the stock of Western Copper rises by 20% two years later, the profit in hand is only about 4% after the 16% bank loan interest is removed.

Li Xin's back suddenly broke out in a cold sweat, fortunately he didn't make that bet with Jin Changxing at that time, otherwise, according to this algorithm, even if the shares of Western Copper rose by 20% two years later, the Southern Group invested 500 million yuan to buy the shares of Western Copper, and the profit received after paying bank interest was 20 million yuan, and there was a difference of 80 million yuan from the profit of not less than 100 million yuan, which meant that he had to pay Jin Changxing about 80 million yuan.

In fact, Li Xin had made such a mistake before, when he was in the sugar company, he did not include the bank's loan interest when he estimated the loss amount of the sugar company, and later after Gao Hui and Lin Li reminded him, he suddenly realized that the loss of the sugar company far exceeded his original estimate when he included the interest expense of the bank.

Now the situation encountered by the Southern Group is the same, it turns out that Li Xin himself expects that the copper mine produced by the newly purchased mine of the Southern Group must be profitable when the copper price is not less than about 80,000 yuan.

This calculation still does not take into account the interest on the bank loan used by the Southern Group to buy the mine, and if the interest on the bank loan is included, I am afraid that the copper mine produced by the new mine will only be profitable if the copper price is above 84,000 yuan.

Thinking of this, Li Xin understood why Liu Zhongzhou said that this new mine would be a major annoyance.

At this time, Hou Gui's words came to Li Xin's mind again: after the copper price rose to 84,000 yuan, it will no longer rise, but a large pullback, such a large pullback is unique in the past one or two years in the process of rising, what does this mean?

In other words, it is already very difficult for the new mine of the Southern Group to make a profit!

Liu Zhongzhou, who has read countless people, knows that Li Xin is very smart, and his cleverness is different from the cleverness of Jiang Hua and others, Jiang Hua and others are clever, and their minds are used to observe words and emotions and manage various interpersonal relationships, Li Xin is obviously inferior to Jiang Hua and others in this regard.

But Li Xin's cleverness is precisely in the logical reasoning and data analysis that Jiang Hua and others are not good at, Li Xin can think clearly about the problems that he couldn't figure out in the past, so now that he has clicked on such a simple question so thoroughly, Li Xin will not be unable to understand it.

So looking at Li Xin's expression of surprise at first, and then into contemplation, Liu Zhongzhou already knew what Li Xin was thinking.

The crux of this question is whether the price of copper will rise sharply? Liu Zhongzhou, who began to be bearish on the price of copper at less than 40,000 yuan, has long had to admit that his estimate of the price of copper at that time was wrong, but now in the face of the sharp decline in copper prices after hitting a record high of 84,000 yuan, he really does not believe that copper prices will break through this high point and continue to rise in the future.

This is copper, not gold.

Even for gold, the price can't go up indefinitely!

Liu Zhongzhou has an estimate in his heart, he thinks that the copper price can be maintained at about 70,000 yuan for a long time, which is not high compared with the previous copper price of 30,000 or 40,000 yuan, but such a price will still make Jinchangxing's copper mine lose one or two hundred million yuan a year, which is almost an inescapable fact.

Liu Zhongzhou remembers very well that he was bearish on copper prices at around 38,000 yuan, while Li Xin was bullish on copper prices at almost the same price. In Liu Zhongzhou's eyes, Li Xin is the only one who dares to go long on copper at that price, but even Li Xin, who is firmly bullish on copper prices, closed all the positions he bought long when the copper price was less than 60,000 yuan.

What does his move mean? It shows that Li Xin also believes that the copper price of more than 60,000 yuan is already a relatively high position, and even he is not optimistic that the copper price will continue to rise.

So Liu Zhongzhou asked in a fierce voice, "Isn't it terrifying?"

Li Xin said: "Yes, isn't the group's investment doomed to lose money?"

Liu Zhongzhou said: "Everyone thinks differently, we see it this way, but it doesn't mean that he also sees it this way." Maybe in his heart, this investment may make a lot of money in the future. ”

Li Xin said: "Such a possibility is not impossible, but the probability is much smaller in comparison. Taking such a big risk to fight for such a unlikely result is really not cost-effective, so it is better to sell it quickly. ”

Liu Zhongzhou smiled faintly and said: "How can it be so easy to sell? To put it mildly, now this mine is a hot potato, and people have finally gotten rid of it, who will take it over again?"

Li Xin said: "Are you saying that selling this mine was a good choice?"

Liu Zhongzhou said: "Then there is no need to ask, if you don't think that the price of copper is already ridiculously high, who will sell such a profitable resource in the mine?"

Li Xin said: "Then didn't we beat the drum and pass the flowers to receive the last stick?"

Liu Zhongzhou said: "I think there is a good chance that this is the case. ”

Li Xin said: "Mr. Liu, then don't you hurry up and suggest that they sell this mine immediately?"

Liu Zhongzhou waved his hand and said: "It's useless, he swore so much to buy this mine at the beginning, just because he thought that this mine could make money, and now you want him to sell the mine at a loss, how can he be willing? Besides, I estimate that no one will be willing to take over this mine even if it is sold at a price of one or two hundred million yuan." Even if someone were willing to take over, I don't think he would have the courage to do so. If you think about it, the new official took office with three fires, and he had to extinguish the fire himself before the first fire was burned, and he also lost one or two hundred million yuan, and I don't know where the interest on the bank loan of more than one billion yuan will come from in the next few years. ”

Li Xin said: "Then we can only pray that the price of copper will continue to rise." ”

Liu Zhongzhou asked disapprerovingly: "Do you think this is more likely?"

Thinking about Jin Changxing's attitude towards himself, Liu Zhongzhou now really has a mentality of watching the fire from across the strait, and wants to wait to see Jin Changxing's jokes.

Not to mention that his judgment that the new mine will lose 200 million yuan a year is only an estimate at present, if he really suggests that Jin Changxing sell the mine, his own estimate in the future is wrong, then he will have to go around if he can't eat. At this time, Liu Zhongzhou is not in his position and does not seek politics, and he will not take this risk.

Taking 10,000 steps back, even if his estimation is correct, Jin Changxing is willing to listen to his own words, and deal with the mine at a low price as soon as possible, so as to avoid further expanding losses for the group in the future.

Therefore, Liu Zhongzhou completely ignored Li Xin's suggestion that he should suggest that Jin Changxing dispose of the mine at the meeting as soon as possible. He even secretly admired in his heart that his judgment of Li Xin was not wrong at all: Li Xin is still the same person, he still can't get rid of his book and get angry, this kind of thing is thankless, why can't he see it?

Where did Li Xin know about Liu Zhongzhou's psychological activities, he thought about it carefully, and also felt that Liu Zhongzhou's rhetorical question was reasonable, and it was indeed a bit of a fool's dream to think that copper prices would continue to rise in this position.

In addition, if Jin Changxing listened to the different opinions of others, he would not have kicked himself out of the management meeting because he did not approve of his purchase of the mine.

Thinking of this, Li Xin sighed and was speechless at Liu Zhongzhou's question.

Seeing that Li Xin didn't speak, Liu Zhongzhou changed the topic and asked: "I think the stocks of Western Copper are not bad, since you last suggested that they invest in the stocks of Western Copper, they have risen a lot, right?"

Li Xin said: "It didn't go up much, it just rose a few cents, less than a dollar." ”

Liu Zhongzhou said: "This is good, compared with the price of copper, it is strong, and the increase is nearly 10%, right?"

Li Xin said: "Almost. ”

Liu Zhongzhou said: "That's it, one is down nearly 20%, the other is up nearly 10%, and the difference between this in and out is big." ”

Hearing this, Li Xin's heart suddenly moved: Liu Zhongzhou is a person who has been the CEO of the Southern Group, and he knows the development of enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry best in his heart in recent years.