Chapter 472: Bottoming Out?
Even at this time, Li Xin still believes that this morning's rally is just a flashback, and copper prices should fall in the afternoon when the overall downward trend has been formed.
In his opinion, he believes that he has completely figured out the idea of the main capital operation, and the sharp decline in the last three days shows that the bulls have begun to admit losses, and the bears will only continue to suppress at this time. Otherwise, any soft-hearted move will bring the hard-won decline to an abrupt halt. In this way, not only will the profit of the bears shrink significantly, but it will also provide a good opportunity for the bulls to appear.
As long as the main force of the bears does not close the position, it is obvious that the move of the long sell and close the position can hit the price down a lot.
With such a pronounced downtrend, it's hard to imagine anyone else daring to go long on dips in this position.
But what he didn't expect was that after the afternoon open, copper prices not only showed no signs of falling, but had been slowly rising at a high level. By the end of the day, copper reached its highest point of the day at $57,500.
Could it be that 55,410 yuan is the bottom of this round of decline?
Impossible!
Judging from today's lowest price, there is still a full 8,410 yuan from the bottom of his prediction of 47,000 yuan.
At best, this is only the beginning of the decline, how can it be possible to stop falling and rise back at this position?
Li Xin was a little confused.
However, within a day, the fluctuation space of copper prices from low to high point is about 2,100 yuan, and the profit on his account has evaporated 21 million yuan in just a few hours, which is irrefutable!
If it weren't for the main force of the bears closing their positions in this place, how could there have been such a big rise in one day?
Unless it's another case: that is, the new bulls enter the market at this position, otherwise it doesn't make sense.
But this is obviously a wave of large-scale declines that have just begun, what do these bulls think, will they go long in this place?
Once a person's mindset is formed, it is not easy to change it.
Li Xin is like that.
Once his idea of shorting is formed, and the correctness of this idea is confirmed by the market trend at the beginning, it is almost impossible to change the bearish view halfway.
In his eyes, the market demand is so sluggish, the price of futures copper has broken the level, and there is almost no support for the lower grade, in this case, the price acceleration is the only option.
Moreover, the accelerated downward trend is the most beneficial for the bears who have the initiative in the market and have a large amount of floating profits in their hands, and the bears will of course use the shortest time to suppress the price and obtain the greatest profits.
Under the guidance of this expectation, although today's trend made Li Xin very unhappy, he did not think of closing the position at all.
Another person who pays close attention to Li Xin's every step of his operation is Yuan Jie.
Because the huge fluctuations in the price of futures copper not only affect the profit figure on Li Xin's account to a large extent, but also affect Yuan Jie's income to a large extent.
Therefore, the most important thing for Yuan Jie to go to work every day is to pay close attention to the changes in futures copper prices.
Today's opening gap immediately plummeted to 55,410 yuan, and at the close of the day, it soared to 57,500 yuan, and the fluctuation range between the high and low points reached 2,100 yuan in one day, which made Yuan Jie, the vice president of a futures company who is accustomed to price fluctuations, also stunned.
A week ago, after the price plummeted, when she suggested that Li Xin stop winning on dips and leave the market, Li Xin did not listen to her. That time, Li Xin's insistence was right, and the price of futures copper fell sharply again, and the profit on Li Xin's account increased.
But today's situation seems to be a little different, this is obviously the trend of the price bottoming, if Li Xin closes the position at the opening and leaves, the profit on his account will not evaporate 21 million yuan for no reason.
"No, we have to persuade him to move his position! His practice of sticking to his position like this will work in stocks, but not in futures, and he will watch in vain the tens of millions of profits slip away in front of him. Also, if his position of more than 2,000 lots moves and the number of transactions goes up, how big will the handling fee be to the futures company every day?" Yuan Jie thought to himself, and dialed Li Xin's phone in his hand.
"I'm afraid your approach of waiting for the rabbit won't work, right?" Yuan Jie was anxious, and there was no cover on his mouth.
The depressed Li Xin was staring at the K-line chart on the computer at this time, and after listening to Yuan Jie's words, he was a little unhappy: "What does it mean to wait for the rabbit?"
"Am I not right? If you look at the trend today, it almost opened at the lowest point and closed at the highest point. If you had followed my advice and closed your position at a low level, how much loss could you have avoided today?"
"Where is this, what I do is long-term, if I mess up now, I may not be able to catch much bigger profits than this in the future!" Li Xin said coldly.
"We have to take into account both immediate and long-term interests, right? Let's not talk about the long-term interests you are talking about, let's just talk about the immediate interests, what is the difference between today's high point and the low point? 21 million yuan, big brother! Are you really sure that your long-term interests are much greater than this?" Yuan Jie persuaded bitterly.
"I don't think this price can go up, and it will still be bearish in the long run. Li Xin said this, and his heart was obviously not as confident as last time.
"I'm not going to argue with you about whether it's going to go down or go up in the future, I'm going to tell you that futures are different from stocks. Futures are small and large, with leverage multiples. You can't use the same set of techniques as stocks to do futures investment, you can do long-term stocks, you buy stocks and put them for two or three years or even take them back to the bottom of the box, but doing futures is different. I don't need to explain this to you, you should know it yourself. Even if you have a lot of money, the profit fluctuation in this day is 21 million yuan, aren't you tempted?"
"Who can catch intraday fluctuations? The key is to look at the general trend. Li Xin said.
"You are raising the bar, I don't know how the general trend will go in the future, and I don't say that the general trend you see is wrong. What I'm saying is that even if you are bearish for a long time, like today's trend, you can quickly close your position when the market gaps sharply at the opening, and then enter it when it closes at a high price. Besides, the K-line chart has fallen sharply for three consecutive days, and there should be a rebound, and you really shouldn't follow the trend. ”
"In theory, it's true, but in practice it's hard to do, and it's too late now. Li Xin's tone softened significantly, and judging from the K-line chart, he had to admit that Yuan Jie's statement was reasonable.
"Why is it too late? Now the price has just bottomed out, and there is still a lot of room for growth in the future, maybe the price will rise above the 60 moving average. Wouldn't it be nice for you to close your position as soon as you open tomorrow and enter the market again in the future when the downtrend comes out?"
"Rise above the 60-day moving average, that is, above 61,500 yuan? Li Xin asked.
"What's impossible about this, is it rare for copper prices to fluctuate by 10,000 yuan in a month in the past year or two?"
"The past is the past, and the present is the present. ”
"Is this time any different? ”
"The decline this time is already obvious, and judging from today's closing price, there is still a considerable distance from the price of the 5-day moving average of 57930, let alone the 60 moving average. If you look at the current chart, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day and 60-day moving averages are diverging downwards, and the long-term bearish trend is the general trend in the future. If the price can continue to break through these moving averages and rise above the 60 moving average, as you said, it may be a different story. ”
"You're really an elm head!How do you know that your judgment must be correct?" Yuan Jie was a little anxious.
"I always have my point. ”
"What if you're wrong this time?"
Li Xin thought for a while and said, "If it's really like what you said, once the price breaks through the 60 moving average, I will immediately close the position and come out, wouldn't it be a little less money?"
"If the price rises above 61,500 yuan, how much profit will you have?" asked Yuan Jie.
"About 5 million. ”
"That's right, when the price is at a low point today, the profit on your account is more than ten times this number, aren't you excited?"
Li Xin didn't know how to answer Yuan Jie's question, so he didn't speak.
"When the price is at the lowest point today, you have a profit of nearly 70 million yuan in your account, and at that time you don't close the position to cash in the profit, but you don't come out until the price breaks through the 60-day moving average and the profit is only 5 million yuan, I really don't know what you think. ”
"Don't change the concept. The price rises above the 60 EMA to close the position because the trend has reversed, and the position is not held now because the trend is still in the process of falling, and you can make greater profits in the future, which are two completely different concepts. ”
Yuan Jie said half-jokingly and half-seriously: "Okay, I can't talk about you." But the profit fluctuation range on your account is often tens of millions of yuan, you don't look impressed, I look sorry for you! Otherwise, if you can catch these profits according to my suggestion, you can take out 1/5 of these profits to thank me, how about it?"
Li Xin said: "Yes, but the question is what if you can't catch it? Not only did you not catch the excess profits, but instead caused losses, what can you say?"
"I knew you would say that, stingy!" Yuan Jie complained on the other end of the phone.