Gao Hui said: "Okay, I'll ask for the past two days." ”

Li Xin said: "Why are so many people in the sugar business recently? In addition to this Xiao Lu just now, when I went to work this afternoon, I met a friend in the corridor who I hadn't seen for many years, saying that he came to buy sugar from your Mr. Tang!"

Gao Hui said: "There have been a lot of people who have been roasting sugar recently, didn't I tell you a few days ago? Many traders in the province have come to us to buy sugar because they can't get sugar from the sugar factory. ”

Li Xin listened to it and thought to herself, now so many people are trying to buy sugar, but there are very few people who sell sugar, looking at this momentum, the price of sugar should rise, is he too cautious?

If they want to buy it, they can get it with a phone call in the futures market, and most importantly, the prices of the two are about the same, so if they don't move, they may miss the opportunity.

Thinking like this, Li Xin began to struggle, wanting to go with the big flow, but there was no good reason to convince herself.

In this way, the more he came later, the more he didn't dare to buy it, and seeing the price of sugar rising, he hesitated to stay out of it, accompanied by a sigh after missing the opportunity.

After the Spring Festival, the crushing season enters its peak. It is already the beginning of March, and the price of sugar continues to rise, and the price of sugar futures T605 on the Jiangnan Commodity Exchange has exceeded 5,600 yuan.

Li Xin went to the exchange this morning, but he didn't come for more than a week, and there were many more people in the office of the rubber factory's trading desk. It can be seen that in addition to the few people I knew before, the other few are new customers who have opened accounts here.

In the room, everyone gathered around the computer to discuss the market, and Lao Feng pointed to the K-line chart on the screen from time to time to express his views and introduce his experience to the newcomers.

Li Xin was a little depressed during this time, watching others make money, and he couldn't make up his mind to enter, seeing that they were chatting lively, he also leaned over to listen for a while.

Zhang Jin said: "Recently, Lao Feng has done a good job, he can make money every day, and he has become our star customer here, and the customers of several trading seats next door often come here to learn from him." ”

Li Xin said enviously: "During this period of time, it has continued to rise slightly, and it has risen by nearly 400 yuan cumulatively.

Lao Feng turned his head with a red face and said with a smile: "I have one or two orders at a time, and all I run around is to make a lot of money and enjoy the process, hehe." ”

Xu Li patted him on the shoulder violently and said, "Lao Feng, don't be modest, look at the market, we are still waiting to hear your opinion." ”

Li Xin saw that they were engaged, so he sat on the side and chatted with Zhang Jin. Li Xin asked: "Recently, you have a lot of customers here?"

Zhang Jin said: "Recently, the price of sugar has risen, and there are more customers who come to fry sugar. ”

Li Xin asked: "Are there many people who come in the sugar factory to open an account?"

Zhang Jin said: "It doesn't seem to be much, it's still the few that have already opened accounts." Now the price of sugar in the market is dozens of yuan higher than that of futures sugar, and I heard that people who come to the sugar factory to buy sugar are lining up, and the sugar factory is not worried about not being able to sell it, so it will not come here to sell sugar. Then he asked with a smile: "You haven't made an order for a long time, are you going to stop when you make money?"

Li Xin said: "No. Recently, I can't find the feeling and can't see it accurately, so I don't dare to place an order rashly. ”

Zhang Jin said: "Now the price is at a high level, and the high place is not cold, so it's good to be careful." Then he asked, "I heard that a batch of sugar will be imported recently, do you have any news?"

Li Xin chuckled in his heart and said, "I haven't heard of it! Where did the news come from? What is the quantity of imports?"

Zhang Jin said: "It is said that more than one million tons of sugar will be imported, but the specific amount is not clear. I've heard that you know that the people in this exchange come from all over the world, and the gossip is flying all over the place. ”

Li Xin said: "Maybe it's not groundless, the gap between supply and demand this year is so big, and it is reasonable to import some sugar." ”

In fact, every year according to the domestic production and sales of cane sugar, there is a plan to import sugar, and there were different quantities of imported sugar last year and the year before that, so why did he not pay attention to this information at all this year?

If such news is true, then it is a great negative factor for the high sugar price! It's just that it is difficult to distinguish the truth from the truth of such gossip, and there are still two key data missing: time and quantity!

Without such news, I don't dare to go long. If such news is true, then is it time to look at the problem from a different angle, is it possible to go short on the highs?

As for the authenticity of the news of imported cane sugar, you can go back to the company to ask.

After going to work in the afternoon, Li Xin immediately found out all the price faxes received from the Guidong Sugar Trading Center and the Nanhai Futures Exchange in the past month or so, and connected these data to see that the trend was the same as the K-line chart displayed on the computer of the Jiangnan Futures Exchange.

The company has been busy recently, and the people who bought sugar from the sugar factories in several branches have returned, and the office is full. In the corridor, you can often meet some strangers with foreign accents, and they are probably customers who come to buy candy.

Li Xin, who had a trace of worry in his heart, couldn't sit still, he got up and walked out of the office, walked down the corridor, and saw that there were too many people in the business office of the sugar branch, so he entered the manager of the alcohol branch.

Yu Shuhua was on the phone, and when she saw Li Xin coming in, she nodded at him. Li Xin greeted her with a smile, sat down on the sofa opposite her desk, picked up a newspaper and flipped through it.

Yu Shuhua's phone call lasted for a long time, and Li Xin listened to her about the expansion of the alcohol warehouse.

After making the call, Yu Shuhua said, "Li Xin, aren't you busy today? ”

Li Xin said: "The affairs of the administrative office are over, take the time to come out and take a walk." Why are there so many people in several business offices next to me? I feel that there are too many out-of-town customers this year, and a few out-of-town customers have nowhere to stay in the business office, and they often come to our office to chat. ”

Yu Shuhua said: "This year, cane sugar is in short supply, and customers from other places have come to the door. ”

Li Xin said: "This is a good thing, I have done business at my doorstep." ”

Yu Shuhua smiled and said, "Then it has to be sold for a good price." ”

Li Xin asked, "Manager Yu, have you bought a lot of cane sugar this year and started selling it?"

Yu Shuhua said: "I sold a small part. We don't have a sugar warehouse, it's all stored in the sugar factory warehouse, it's the peak of the crushing season, and the sugar factory's warehouse is also tight, and we can't put it down!"

Li Xin said: "I think that the price is so high now, it should be sold, and it is safe to settle down!"

Yu Shuhua said: "Our branch is quite good, and it has begun to sell a little. The warehouses of the sugar branch are not stacked, and they are not willing to sell them, so they have to wait for a better price. ”

Li Xin deliberately led the topic in the direction he cared about: "It seems that they are still optimistic about the market outlook and think that sugar prices will rise." But if imported sugar comes in, it will be difficult for sugar prices to rise. ”

Yu Shuhua said: "The purpose of imported sugar is to alleviate the pressure on supply and demand, and the quantity is limited after all. And in terms of time, it will generally arrive in the second half of the year when the domestic sugar is not available, at least three or four months later, which should not have much impact on sugar prices. ”

Seeing that Yu Shuhua really mentioned imported sugar, Li Xin lost no time in asking: "How much imported sugar do you estimate this year?"

Yu Shuhua said: "The news from the sugar association is about 1.2 million tons. Even with the addition of this 1.2 million tons of imported sugar, there is still a gap in supply. As she was talking, the phone on her desk rang again, and Yu Shuhua stopped the topic to answer the phone.

Li Xin saw that he had already heard the news he wanted, so he took the opportunity to get up and say goodbye: "Manager Yu, you are busy first, I will go over." ”

Back in his office, Li Xin thought: The news of imported sugar has been implemented, and judging from the data, as Yu Shuhua said, even with the addition of 1.2 million tons of imported sugar, there is still a gap in supply. Traders dare to be bullish on the market outlook, and the most fundamental thing is to live in this point.

However, in Li Xin's view, the current sugar price of about 5,600 yuan is more than 1,400 yuan higher than the same period last year, which is at a historical high. If the market continues to rise in the future, it will be contrary to the current environment of curbing excessively rapid price rises and controlling inflation.

In this case, if you follow the trend to chase the high and go long, the risk is too great! It is better to look at it from another angle, will it be a good choice to go short on the high?

Li Xin lit a cigarette, sat on the sofa and fell into deep thought: the essence of trading is to buy and sell. There have always been transactions in the futures market, which means that there have always been people who are shorting, and what do these short-sellers think?

The price has continued to rise for so long, and the increase is also very large, except for a decent pullback before the Spring Festival, the rest of the time is going up, how can there be anything that only goes up and does not fall?

But the problem is that for more than a month, the price trend has been contrary to my own view, and my original self-confidence has polished the market.

Unlike Li Xin, the continuous rise in the market has made Tang Jianhua feel very good, and the business managers under him are quite capable and have completed the acquisition task well, and they have hoarded a large amount of sucrose in their hands during this time.

With the gradual rise in prices, the gap between supply and demand has made traders from all over the world move and flock to the major producing areas to grab the supply.

Judging from the current situation, he expects that September and October in the second half of the year will be the peak period for sugar consumption in the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, and it will also be a special period when the old and new crushing seasons alternate, and the two factors will pile up together, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be more prominent.

That's when it's a good time to sell sugar.

The piles of cane sugar in the warehouse are clearly white silver!

With so many goods in hand, he is on the cusp and has become the target of many traders. There are many people who don't know about Wu Bin's existence at all, and they all think that Tang Jianhua is the general manager of the sugar company, and his name is known to everyone among the people who do sugar business in Jiangcheng for a while, and the phone in his hand rings non-stop every day from morning to night, all looking for him to buy sugar.

For those who are not familiar with it, it's okay to say, just send it away.

But for those trading partners who have cooperated for many years, it really gives him a headache, he doesn't give it at all, he really can't save face, and he will ask others in the future, give it, it's really reluctant.

In the end, like squeezing toothpaste, he took out dozens of tons or a hundred tons perfunctory, and he was really unwilling to sell a larger quantity.