Just when this person wanted to continue to say something to Li Yan, suddenly his mobile phone beeped.

Not only him, but many people's mobile phones also emitted "beep, ding" sounds before and after.

Almost everyone subconsciously took out their mobile phones and glanced at the screen, and in an instant the hall was quiet, from the hustle and bustle just now to the dead silence now.

This transformation gives people goosebumps......

Everyone received a message on their mobile phones, and it was exactly the news that Li Yan had just mentioned: the Bohai Bay area issued a new real estate market regulation policy. It is clearly stipulated that residents can only be listed and traded after five years of obtaining the real estate certificate to purchase a house. This covers second-hand housing......

After a long time, Mr. Zhou swallowed his saliva and asked Li Yan with a stunned face, "Are you ...... How did you find out about this? Don't you have the ability to reach out to the heavens?"

Mr. Zhao, who was thin and short, also picked up the teacup and took a sip, then glanced at Li Yan a few times and asked, "How did you know this kind of news......?" How could this be"

Li Yan smiled bitterly and spread his hands, then took out his mobile phone from his pocket and shook it and said, "I want to say that it was an accident, do you believe it?"

Everyone's eyes showed the word disbelief, but no one directly confronted Li Yan. Wu Zhilin, who was standing aside at the moment, coughed lightly, and whispered to Li Yan in a voice that was just right for everyone to hear: "How do you know? Everyone is waiting for you, so don't sell it." ”

After shaking the phone a few times, Li Yan said with a wry smile: "Actually, I really don't have any ability to go through the sky." I don't know any of the high-level people above, but I have a hobby that likes to watch the news. Speaking of this, Li Yan paused and glanced at everyone before continuing: "Today's housing prices are becoming more and more deformed day by day, and even real estate tycoons have begun to write about this kind of thing. I saw it, but I belonged to one of the very lucky few people, and the article had been "urgently" removed from the shelves when I clicked on it after reading it. ”

"Oh, what's the content, did you just say the news?" Mr. Zhou asked Li Yan.

Li Yan, who shook his head, said with emotion: "Yes and no, I saw that the real estate tycoon said that the real estate market is becoming more and more deformed day by day, which has violated the common sense of the market." All of you here are long-established figures in the financial circle! When you became famous, I was just a student. You might as well use the method of financial analysis to analyze what kind of state it is that housing prices have been high and transaction volume is bleak. ”

Mr. Zhao was speechless and said, "Yes...... It's a high-level shrinkage sideways"

"That's right, it's a sideways contraction at a high level. So what is the result?" After Li Yan asked this question, without waiting for anyone to answer his question, he directly gave the answer: "Normally, it must be a fall! The longer the shrinkage time and the longer the sideways period, the greater the decline at the high level, right?

Li Yan asked two whys in a row, but no one answered Li Yan's question. Looking at everyone's eyes, Li Yan understood that everyone was not pretending to be confused, but not daring to say it!

"In fact, even the previous rise in housing prices is "unexplainable" by economic and technical analysis, right? Today's long-term real estate market has a high shrinkage sideways result, which is already the best result, isn't it?"

Several questions in a row made the big guy who was still holding his neck hang his head slightly.

The real estate tycoon said that since 1998, the real estate market in China has used market-oriented methods in the past 20 years to improve the housing conditions of many people, and the appearance of the city has been greatly improved. I have to admit that the real estate industry has contributed a lot to these two decades. The use of the market to allocate and organize resources also contributes to it. After Li Yan said this, he looked at everyone present. When he saw everyone looking at him blankly, he spread his hands with a wry smile and said: "But I have to say that the real estate market in China is becoming more and more deformed day by day after 20 years. It is indeed against the common sense of the market, and just now I also used the method of our financial capital market to analyze housing prices. ”

In fact, Li Yan doesn't want to talk about housing prices all the time, but wants to talk to everyone about the deeper things behind housing prices. That is, the rental rate of return that Li Yan just mentioned.

The annual rent of the house, divided by the total value of the house, is the rental return. This rate of return is also the most comprehensive indicator of the real estate market in the world, there is no one! no indicator can replace it, of course, some people use the rent-to-sale ratio to express it, but on the whole, the two actually mean the same thing.

Li Yan faced the people in front of him, muttered for a while, and did not throw out these professional things, but chose to use the examples around him to "tell stories".

The big guy said, take the capital as an example. Rental yields are now about 3 per cent for office buildings and less than 1 per cent for residential buildings. Li Yan's voice just fell, and the rest of the words hadn't been said yet. Mr. Zhou couldn't sit still, and raised his head to Li Yan and asked, "You must have miscalculated, it can't be so low!"

Li Yan glanced at Mr. Zhou, and said with a smile on the corner of his mouth: "You don't plan to use any case to persuade me, right?"

Mr. Zhou shook his head and asked Li Yan rhetorically: "I bought a house ten years ago, I just wanted to ask you, what is the house price, and now that I have rented out, I calculated the rate of return on rent, which has obviously exceeded six percent, or even close to seven percent!"

Sighing softly, Li Yan said loudly to Mr. Zhou: "Actually, Mr. Zhou, you made a mistake yourself, there is a particularly important premise for calculating the rental rate of return, that is, you must use today's money to calculate today's account! Calculate it according to the current price, not the price of the year, otherwise it will be really messy." ”

Mr. Zhao asked Li Yan in a deep voice: "Then you say, what should be the normal rental rate of return?"

With Mr. Zhao's questioning, someone at the adjacent table had secretly held the mobile phone in his palm and began to use the search engine to find the answer.

Li Yan didn't think about it, and responded directly to Mr. Zhao: "It should be on the basis of the bank loan interest rate, plus one to two percent." At present, the average lending rate of banks is 5%, so it is normal for rental yields to be 6 or 7%. In the long run, when the rate of return on rent is lower than the interest rate on bank loans, it means that the house price is too high and will fall! On the contrary, it means that the house price is too low and will definitely rise! This is the common sense of the real estate market!

"It's not that the landlord has no common sense to raise the rent!" Mr. Zhou suddenly questioned Li Yan, as if he wanted to explain the problem through his own words, but Li Yan tilted his head and looked at Mr. Zhou and smiled and said, "But you should also know that this news has just been released, and the documents that will be regulated immediately will come down?"

Mr. Zhou was like a deflated ball, drooping his head and not speaking.

Li Yan smiled bitterly and spread out his hands, and continued to whisper to everyone: "So, it seems that China's housing prices are already ridiculously high, so the country will say that houses are for living, not for speculation." Shouldn't each of us, every boss of the Demon Hunting Alliance, be inspired by this easy-to-understand sentence?"

Mr. Zhao was just about to speak, Li Yan raised his hand and waved at him and said with a smile: "I know that you will extend this sentence infinitely, but my understanding is very simple. That is to bring rental returns back to normal levels. Since the state is planning to take action to suppress the excessively high housing prices, everyone is going to enter the market at this time? This is as if the state has reminded the stock price through the official media that the stock price has been almost crazy, the social security fund has left the market, the pension has been withdrawn, and the bank's financial funds have waved goodbye to the capital market, and you ...... Rushed in. ”

What Li Yan said made everyone present feel heartbroken, but I have to say that what Li Yan said was not wrong. The cost of high housing prices is actually very simple, one is the cost of land and taxes. After all, the higher the land price, the higher the tax on real estate, and the high-rise is gradually rising, and the annual increase in some cities is very amazing.

And the second piece is interest, which is taken away by the bank. After all, housing prices have gone up, and the bank has more and more interest. In addition to interest, banks also use various financial products to change their tricks to get a bigger share of the pie. The third piece is the profit, and these are the parts that the real estate developer can take.

Looking at the people in front of him, Li Yan pointed at himself and then at everyone and said: "Real estate developers are actually the same as us, we are businessmen in the financial market, and real estate developers are businessmen of houses. Speaking of businessmen, isn't it true that they are chasing profits, so these people are eager for the house prices to rise all the time, and some conspiracy theorists say that the three of them work together to make them get a bigger share of the cake, and the result is obviously that those people in the middle class have converted most of the hard-earned money over the years into real estate. We have even seen some real estate developers actively respond to the call of the state. ”

Mr. Zhou frowned and glanced at Li Yan and asked, "What are you talking about, should you sell for rent, do long-term rental apartments, short-term rental apartments, etc.?"

Li Yan nodded, and then asked, "But is this useful? The current situation in the real estate market in China today is that the rental rate of return on residential properties is less than 1 percent, and the interest rate on bank loans is 5 percent.

No one answered Li Yan's question, because everyone understood. That's pretty much the impossible.

"The sale is rental, and we can only hope for the rise in house prices, and after the house price rises, the rental yield, which is already very low, will most likely become even lower. What is the solution to the common sense of the crisis?" Li Yan asked his own question to the crowd. But none of the people present seemed to be able to answer Li Yan's question.

"In my opinion, the best strategy is to reconcile the drug and deleverage, stop putting money into the market, and don't issue high money to the market. The currency that comes out is left in the hands of the banks, and most banks will start the multiplier method, turning the funds into 2.5 times, and eventually forming a new M2. If the money is controlled, the house will naturally be controlled!" As Li Yan spoke, he saw that Mr. Zhao actually handed him a cup of tea, and hurriedly nodded in thanks.

Subsequently, Li Yan continued: "The middle strategy is to do nothing and do nothing. As for the next policy, he went to the doctor and took medicine indiscriminately. I believe that the real estate market will definitely return to normal in the future, and the era of speculation has passed. ”

Mr. Zhou asked Li Yan, "What will happen then, and what method will be used?"

Li Yanyi grinned, shook his head and said, "I don't know! I don't know whether it will return in a gradual way, a soft landing, or a radical return, a hard landing!"

…………………………

Under the continuous pullback of A-shares, the once hot stock pledge business has become a hot potato in the hands of securities companies, and even some brokerages have stopped stock pledge business.

The investigation of the Chinese reporter of the brokerage company found that the difficulty of stock pledge financing of listed companies continues to increase, and the threshold for securities companies to undertake stock pledge financing should not only look at the amount of stock pledge financing and the proportion of all stock pledges of the listed company, but also look at the qualifications of the pledged stocks and the industry in which they are located. Some brokerages have clearly pointed out that industries with excessive debts, such as the real estate industry, will not be accepted, and some insurance stocks will not be accepted.

What's more, the brokerage China reporter learned that a number of securities companies have begun to stop the stock pledge business, including a large securities company in the top ten.

A number of brokerages have suspended stock pledge financing

The once hot stock pledge financing business of listed companies has now entered a difficult situation, and securities companies, including some large securities firms, have stopped stock pledge financing business, and securities companies that continue to engage in this business have generally raised the threshold.

According to the understanding of the Chinese reporter of the brokerage, the securities companies that have stopped the stock pledge financing business, in addition to a number of listed brokerages, there are also a number of unlisted small and medium-sized brokerages.

"The company also did not publicly announce the cessation of the stock pledge financing business, mainly because the projects submitted were basically not approved, and the results disclosed privately by the company's leaders in charge were that no matter how good the project was, it would not be approved. The person in charge of a listed brokerage company in Jiangsu in the central region said.

A medium-sized securities firm in Shenzhen directly informed the heads of its securities business departments that the company had no quota and all financing businesses were suspended, including margin financing and securities lending business, in addition to stock pledge financing business.

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