Chapter 151: What is Probability

Cang Hao said with a dark face: "Since you all know, let me waste so much saliva!"

"I'm sorry. Andreevich laughed dryly: "I see that what you said is quite powerful, I'm sorry to interrupt you." ”

"Now it seems that we didn't bet on losing ......" Serchenko looked at Andreevich and then at Cang Hao: "But we can't say that we have won, and we still need to observe how the situation will develop next." ”

Andreevich nodded, and then said a little incomprehensibly: "There is one thing I don't quite understand, satellite launch is inherently risky, since this insurance company is an empty shell, even if there is a problem with a satellite, it must pay for the family." Didn't Mr. President foresee this?"

"It's not that I don't have it, but I've been gambling. Serchenko shook his head slowly: "These politicians have been gambling all their lives, and if they win the bet, they will be promoted and rich, and if they lose the bet, they will die without a place to be buried." If you want to have smooth sailing and not take a little risk, it is very difficult to make a difference in politics. ”

"That's right, and the probability of a satellite launch failure is actually very low. After a pause, Cang Hao advised: "In the next few days, you will stay in Cuifeng Village honestly and avoid the limelight for the time being. If the number two can handle a qiē, you can go back and be reinstated. ”

One of Andrievich's subordinates was not very reassured: "What if he can't solve this crisis?"

Cang Hao said bluntly: "Then you will only have to die in the world!"

"I'm sorry. Serchenko said with great guilt: "I am the one who has caused you to be burdened." ”

"We can't say that, when we decide to support you, we are doomed to face any possible consequences. Andrievich smiled easily: "We don't care!"

Serchenko was very moved: "Thank you. ”

"It's you who is in trouble now. Andreyevich said to Cang Hao very uneasily: "After all, you destroyed the satellite, if you really investigate it, you still have to pay the price." ”

Serchenko said thoughtfully: "I don't think this matter will be made public." ”

Andrei did not understand: "Why?"

"There is no benefit in making it public. Serchenko spread his hands: "What will happen if it is made public, it is impossible for ordinary people to come to China to retaliate against Canghao for this matter, but they will decide that the military is incompetent and cannot even protect a satellite." Therefore, the knowledge of this matter is limited to a certain range, but there is no reason to disclose it to the outside world. What we need to do now is to guard against the Foreign Intelligence Service (FIA) for a covert retaliation mission, and I'm mentally prepared for that, as long as it's no longer the FSB, and I really don't want to face my colleagues in the past. ”

"You guys talk first. Cang Hao looked at the time and said, "I'll go out for a while." ”

Serchenko hurriedly asked: "Why are you going?"

"Go to work!"

"Did you know it's dangerous right now?"

"Then you have to go to work!" Cang Hao smiled nonchalantly: "What's more, now there is a chance to make a fortune!"

In fact, it is true that the use of military insurance to influence the political situation was not invented by Cang Hao himself, and was originally inspired by Admiral Linus.

Admiral Linus privately sold the equipment of the pre-positioned troops at sea in order to make the military insurance company lose a lot of money, and then bring down the boss behind the scenes.

Since this situation is the same in Russia and the United States, the practice of the Diamond Alliance in the Russian stock market can be replicated in country M.

What is amazing is that after Cang Hao bought these equipment, there was no wind and waves on the side of country M, and the efficiency was far less than that of the Russians.

After Cang Hao rushed to Cao's Finance, he summoned all the executives for a meeting and said straight to the point: "Cao's Financial was formed to operate Cao's Real Estate at first, but we can't rely on one stock to support so many people. So, we have to make a difference in the financial markets, we have to make a lot of money, we have to prove the value of our company. ”

"That's right. Wen Xiaohai nodded: "Since the company opened, it hasn't done a big business. ”

Lu Jiaqi interjected and asked, "Mr. Cao, what are you going to do?"

Lu Jiaqi attended the meeting as a secretary, and his duty was only to make a record.

Of course, she doesn't know how to make any records at all, just pretend, and it is not her turn to speak in business matters at all.

Cang Hao glanced at Lu Jiaqi and had to reply: "I decided to go to the world's largest casino-country M!"

Wen Xiaohai hurriedly asked, "How do you do it?"

"There's a stock. Cang Hao wrote the name of the military insurance company on the sticky note, and then showed it to everyone: "Mobilize all our funds and go all out to short this stock." ”

After the establishment of Cao's Finance, it hired some financial experts, and one of the experts asked after inquiring about the information: "The partner of this company is the Ministry of Defense of country M, and it has always made good profits, and the stock price should still have room to rise, so why should it be short-selling?"

Cang Hao has two identities, on the one hand, he is a business executive, and on the other hand, he is the king of mercenaries.

Cang Hao's comrades-in-arms all knew Cang Hao's other identities, but when Cang Hao appeared as a corporate executive, the people around him didn't know Cang Hao's other identity.

Therefore, Cang Hao couldn't explain why he concluded that this stock would fall, but just scribbled a sentence: "You can just trust my judgment." ”

"I don't believe it. The expert stubbornly said: "Mr. Cang probably has some inside information, and he concluded that this company would have a problem, and the stock price would plummet." However, this is a military insurance company, Mr. Cang should not have watched the news, this morning, there was a scandal in a military insurance company on the Russian side, and now it is on the verge of bankruptcy. ”

Cang Hao frowned: "These are two different things at all, how can you talk about it together?"

"It's one thing. The expert said very seriously: "Military insurance is a profiteering industry, but it is also a very unpopular industry, and ordinary people rarely understand it." There is no competition in this industry, and if you want to open such a company, you must have strong enough connections in the political circles. That is, from a fundamental point of view, such companies are usually less prone to major problems. ”

Cang Hao nodded: "Go on." ”

"The problem with the Russian company is clearly related to political infighting. What this expert said was still somewhat level, at least he saw the essence behind the appearance of things: "Such a special industry is for the cooperation of the Ministry of Defense of a large country, and it is impossible to have two problems in a short period of time." ”

"I don't think you understand what probability is. Cang Hao smiled coldly: "Generally speaking, airplanes are the safest means of transportation, and it is generally believed that the probability of a plane crash is the lowest among all means of transportation. ”

The expert did not understand: "Why are you talking about airplanes again?"

"For I will learn a truth from you. Cang Hao looked at this expert and said meaningfully: "Last year, how many planes crashed in the world, you can count the number of Malaysia Airlines planes alone." From the perspective of probability, the probability of so many air crashes in one year is very low, but this possibility still comes true. ”

Wen Xiaohai nodded vigorously: "Mr. Cang continued." ”

"The biggest thing about probability is that it may not be useful at all, because something very low probability just happens. After a pause, Cang Hao continued to analyze: "From a macro point of view, the plane is indeed very safe, but every take-off and landing of the plane is an independent event, and it is not affected by whether the previous flight has broken down at all. That is, microscopically, the probability of a crash is the same for every flight. The previous flight crash, does it reduce the probability of a subsequent flight crash, no, it is simply impossible, the plane should fall or will fall. ”

Wen Xiaohai said thoughtfully: "In other words, the macro statistics are completely meaningless, and it is normal to hate the accidents of several flights at the same time." ”

The expert again questioned: "But if there is a previous flight crash, the pilot of the subsequent flight is affected by the situation, the airport has strengthened security measures, etc., it will still have an impact." ”

"But there were still a lot of plane crashes last year, didn't they?!" With a cold smile, Cang Hao's tone became a little impatient: "Continuing to talk about our current topic, in fact, it is the same as the plane crash, the bankruptcy of the military insurance company of country M is unavoidable, and there is no necessary connection with whether it is unlucky with the Russian counterpart!"

The expert was already unconvinced: "But ......"

"No, but. Lu Jiaqi angrily interrupted the expert's words: "Isn't what Mr. Cang said clear enough, besides, since Mr. Cang has inside information, it must be very reliable, otherwise can we mobilize all the funds?!"

Lu Jiaqi said, squeezing his eyes at Cang Hao, as if he was asking for credit.

Although Cang Hao felt that Lu Jiaqi was a little troublesome, this time Lu Jiaqi's expression still made Cang Hao very satisfied: "The matter is so decided, Wen Xiaohai, you are fully responsible for this operation." ”

Wen Xiaohai took on such an important job for the first time, and he couldn't help but be very proud: "No problem!"

"If anyone still has any problems, they can resign. Cang Hao really didn't bother to explain anything, so he dropped this sentence and walked out of the office.

That is, after the meeting, it was already time to get off work, Cang Hao did not plan to stay and work overtime, and was ready to return to Cuifeng Village.

As soon as he arrived on the first floor, Ai Yu greeted him: "Mr. Cang, I'll send you back." ”

Facing danger at any time, Cang Hao was unwilling to involve Ai Yu, and was about to send Ai Yu away, when he suddenly found that the atmosphere of the company was a little wrong.

A large group of female employees gathered in front of the company, chattering about something, as if they were in collective heat.

"It's really spring. Cang Hao was a little unhappy: "What kind of virtue has become in the office." ”

Ai Yu smiled: "The company has a handsome guy." ”