1015. Future Trends and Timing

The 15-year journey of market for technology has given Huaxia Automobile Industry the opportunity to take off.

The automobile industry, standing at the technical level, is a pearl in the crown of a century-old industry. Standing at the cultural level, it is a collection of a large number of cultural symbols such as life concepts, values and identity grown out of the industrial era - the technical barrier is not easy, and the cultural barrier is not easy? But in the previous life around 2014, there were new changes in Huaxia Automobile, and the huge gap of cultural identity that is difficult to cross may not need to be crossed. From the beginning of 2014 to the rebirth of Zhou Fangyuan, there were signs of a paradigm shift in the world's automobile industry, and the automobile entered the era of cross-border innovation, and this time, Huaxia is very likely to lead the world.

In 2014, two disruptive forces emerged in the Huaxia automobile industry. One is new energy, and the other is intelligence.

There is no doubt that new energy is the trend of the times.

In the past few years, Europe has taken the route of clean diesel, Fuso has taken the hybrid route, and the United States has been trying in various directions, but there is no established route. Huaxia in 2014 made a big gamble and bet entirely on the pure electric route. At that time, Huaxia, with the strength of the whole country, introduced intensive policies and measures to support the development of pure electric vehicles, from car purchase subsidies to unlimited licenses, with the strong intervention of government forces, electric vehicles from the traditional oil car market to bite a big bite.

2014 is considered to be the first year of electric vehicles in Huaxia. Until 5 years later, 19 years later, Huaxia is not only the world's No. 1 electric vehicle market, but also one of the most leading markets in electric vehicle technology.

Huaxia is the country that has gone the furthest in the industrialization of new energy - when other countries are still in the laboratory stage or a small order of magnitude, Huaxia has reached the order of several million units. Both the industrial environment and consumers are the most mature here. Secondly, there is no big gap between the level of Huaxia and foreign countries in the area of battery motor electronic control of new energy vehicles, even if there are occasional gaps, it is not systematic.

This is a sky-high market that is purely auctioned by the government - in the world's largest new energy test field, electric vehicle leaders such as BYD were born. Batteries are the key to electric vehicles, and BYD's battery market share has long occupied the first place in the global market, until the sudden rise of CATL, which is still a battle between Chinese companies.

This time, the global automobile industry, in a sense, is dominated by the Chinese, and the world's largest automobile market is rapidly shifting to the direction of new energy, which immediately forces car companies all over the world to raise their flags to fight. Multinational giants such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW, which had previously held a wait-and-see attitude, also quickly followed up with new energy, and almost all companies released their crazy new energy vehicle development plans in the Huaxia market - in their eyes, if they don't do it again, the Huaxia market may be lost.

Another disruptive variable comes from the Internet sector.

In 2014, a senior official from the Swedish National Innovation Agency made an interesting research proposal. He found that Germany has a very strong automobile industry and a relatively strong ICT industry, but there is no interaction between the two industries - the same is true in the United States, Detroit has a very strong automobile industry in the world, and there are also the world's top information and Internet technologies in Silicon Valley, but anyone can see that there is also a lack of interaction between Detroit and Silicon Valley.

Huaxia's automobile industry is not strong compared with these two countries, and the Internet is still a cut short of the United States, but in Huaxia, it is the first to appear that the Internet and the automobile industry are hand-in-hand.

In February 2015, the "born to share" Yiqi Automobile was born, which shook the nerves of the automobile circle, and the "affectionate embrace" of Internet companies and car-making companies has since become the new normal and new consensus. Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei and other companies have begun to weigh their own superior resources and deploy Internet + smart cars.

It is precisely because Huaxia was the first to have such an integrated soil.

In 2013 and 14, it was the hottest period of Internet thinking, and the Chinese people rose up, reporting the myth of Internet wealth in the news every day, and at the same time relish the cross-border robbery of the traditional manufacturing industry by the new Internet industry. One vivid case after another is in front of us - Meituan has eliminated instant noodles, and mobile Internet has eliminated the volume of telephone business.

This is an era that has been jokingly called "killing you, it has nothing to do with you", precisely because of the ubiquitous penetration of the Internet, coupled with the result of the media, that the traditional industry feels like a great enemy. Almost all traditional entrepreneurs feel nervous and anxious, feeling that "these Internet people standing in the spotlight may be going to subvert me tomorrow".

One of the characteristics of the automobile industry in China is that they have accumulated the ability and volume to today after a long period of continuous learning and reference, and the learning ability and learning attitude of people in the automobile industry will always be there. Since then, people in the automotive industry have started to learn from the Internet people. There is a concept called the capability trap in management, an enterprise often restricts its development of its superior capabilities, and when it is kidnapped by its superior capabilities and cannot respond to market changes in a timely and effective manner, it will face a very passive situation.

When a particularly strong industry does not see itself as so strong, this has the possibility of integration. At this time, the car company bosses all have a very humble attitude to learn from Internet people, and this time is still the most arrogant stage of Internet people - this period of time is also the hottest time for the concept of Internet car manufacturing.

It wasn't until a year or two later, when Internet people repeatedly hit a wall on the manufacturing side, that they suddenly discovered that the industrial world was so big and so difficult. At this time, their logical tone gradually changed, the people who bowed their heads became them, and the arrogant Internet people began to be in awe of industrial manufacturing. When an equal dialogue takes place, there is a possibility that people can sit down at the table and discuss, "What are your strengths, what are my strengths, and how can we start working together?"

Internet people have lowered their noble heads, and the manufacturing industry has learned new ways to play, and two types of people who were originally unrelated have walked together.

As far as the closed automobile industry is concerned, the model platform and related accumulated data are the core resources of the enterprise, but Chery has done a thing with "Internet thinking" - the first in the world to open up its own model platform.

For the new Internet car-making forces, they have a smart brain, but in the face of a huge industrial system, from R&D, manufacturing system, upstream and downstream supplier management, etc., to manage nearly 1,000 suppliers from glass to tires, it is by no means possible to do it with enthusiasm. And this open and shared model platform, based on its own strong and stable development and manufacturing capabilities, provides a stable body for intelligent brains. Automobile companies have shifted from manufacturers to service providers, and through in-depth integration with Internet car companies, they have deeply integrated with the intelligent era.

The advent of the intelligent era has brought a new opportunity for Huaxia Automobile to change lanes and overtake, and it may really be possible for Huaxia people who are good at service innovation to become the leader of this wave.

If the birth of the Ford Model T in 1905 brought the car into the century of the Chinese people, and after the sixties and seventies of the last century, the changes brought about by the "Toyota production mode" made the automobile enter the century of the Fuso people, then after 2015, the automobile industry is likely to usher in the century of the Chinese people.

At that time, the automobile industry was entering a stage of paradigm shift, from the original industrial era based on Fordist mass production paradigm to the intelligent era based on ICT and the Internet more flexible techno-economic paradigm. In this paradigm shift, Huaxia may be the best frontier to integrate industrial manufacturing capabilities and new technologies in the intelligent era, and the world is looking forward to the "Huaxia scene" of smart cars.

Published in 1994, "Evergreen" became a global bestseller at the end of the last century. But from a practical point of view, any enterprise and an organization have its life cycle. The glorious moment that belongs to it has passed, and it will never be returned. If it continues, it will be called Nirvana Rebirth, which has transformed into a new species.

The evolution of history is the result of us standing on the shoulders of giants, industrial civilization is stepping on the basis of agricultural civilization to advance, and in this era, industrial civilization has come to an end. When we talk about independent innovation, most of the time we are still following the logic of machinery manufacturing in an industrial era, and new technologies represented by the Internet, mobile Internet, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things are bringing new changes to the entire human race.

The automobile industry is evolving from the era of birch forests to the era of tropical rainforests. The so-called birch forest refers to the fact that the original automobile industry is highly homogeneous, and at a glance, everyone is the same species, high and low and struggling to grow together. The tropical rainforest is a concept of an ecosphere, in which all species coexist in symbiosis. Even a patch of moss is indispensable.

From the perspective of the future, the general trend is that cars connect everything, and everything links cars, and cars become a new space for mobile smart life and a platform for superimposing new services.

Looking back over the past 240 years, there have been about five major technological revolutions.

The first technological revolution was the British Industrial Revolution, represented by the steam engine. The age of the steam engine corresponded to the Victorian way of life, which was characterised by an industrial-based urban lifestyle – a large number of manufactured goods were consumed, which was the first technological revolution that brought about a change in life.

The second is the era of heavy industry represented by coal and steel. This was the Belle Époque before the First World War, and it spread from the original lifestyle that was born in the upper class of British cities to the whole world, becoming a worldwide urban lifestyle.

The third is the industrial technological revolution represented by Ford's production methods, chemical, petroleum, automobile and other technologies. It brought the quintessentially American way of life to the world.

The fourth was the information technology revolution brought about by Intel in 1971. It has brought a knowledge-friendly, environment-friendly and sustainable green lifestyle based on ICT Internet and mobile Internet.

Every technological change in the world brings a corresponding good life, and the good life of each period is guiding people's innovation track.

The world is ushering in a new era. This era is the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and it is another major change in human technology. This is a historic opportunity to seize this opportunity to get rid of some things that we are not good at and give full play to the abilities we are good at.

In such a big era, if he can't get a piece of the pie, Zhou Fangyuan can't forgive himself.

And this happens to be a great opportunity for him to enter the automotive industry, where the importance and profitability of this industry no longer have to be wasted.

It's really the best time to do it.

First of all, the old car companies began to go downhill, and smart cars only have concepts, and have not really shown their grandeur.

Secondly, the domestic market is expanding rapidly, this year, that is, 06 years, China's car ownership is less than 50 million, but in another ten years, until 2016, China's car ownership will be close to 200 million, about four times. By the end of 2018, before Zhou Fangyuan's rebirth, the number of cars in China will be close to 220 million, and this growth rate may only be surpassed by the United States. With such a large market, the size of the automotive aftermarket alone is as high as 1.3 trillion, which can be imagined how terrifying the entire automobile market is.

Even if you can only eat one percent of it, it is enough for the distant group to be full, and in fact, if you can eat deliciously, the harvest is so great that ordinary people can't imagine it.

For example, take the domestic god car Wuling as an example.

From 2002 to 2018, SAIC-GM-Wuling's sales revenue increased from 3.8 billion yuan to 110 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 25%, driving many internationally renowned suppliers in the whole industry chain to settle in Guizhou Province, and the high-end industry cluster effect appeared. In 2016 and 2018, SGMW has achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan for three consecutive years. In 2018, the annual output value of the supply chain has reached 75.2 billion yuan, driving the total growth of social economy by more than 770 billion yuan, and directly and indirectly employing more than 200,000 people.

Moreover, from 2013 to achieve production and sales of more than 10 million vehicles to achieve production and sales of 20.25 million vehicles, SAIC-GM-Wuling only took 6 years.

In the past six years, the company has closely followed the market changes, accelerated the research and development and iteration of passenger car products, and successively launched Baojun 310, Baojun 510, Baojun 360, Baojun 530 and other powerful models in the field of traditional cars, and at the same time launched two innovative products in the field of new energy, Baojun E100 and Baojun E200, opening a new market segment of "family second car".

In fact, if you really want to evaluate the level, Wuling and those well-known cars are completely incomparable in grade, and the cars sold are all bargains, but these bargains have taken a step out of the profits that those high-end brands can't sell, so I ask you if you're afraid? And this is just Wuling's family, so Zhou Fangyuan's idea is very simple.

The automobile industry must be entered, relying on the market, pinching the right time, taking Shijue's technology and channels as the backbone, taking the new car as the meat, and walking out of a new intelligent road, coupled with the development of the Yuanfang Group in the Internet field is excellent, so this investment can be said to be a very, very, very considerable prospect.