Chapter 638 Questions and Sincerity
Jing Jian was drinking tea on the side, as if it was none of his business. And Gu Hongxing was already sluggish, he didn't expect that he would suddenly get involved in such a huge project.
The discussion continued: "I have nothing to say about the specific operational matters involving trade secrets. But please don't question the strength of our group. This is a photocopy of our $100 million promissory note at the Bank of America, which could be transferred to a bank designated by the Chinese government at any time if the project is formally approved. This is an 80 billion yen guarantee issued by Hirata Bank. As for the others, I believe that you Chinese will not be uninterested in land transfer fees, construction projects, and equipment that China can produce, and you should also give RMB loans or convert them into investments, right? In addition, it can be revealed that our capital introduction can take many forms. Strategic investors can be introduced, loans or bonds can be obtained, and even preparations for listing and financing can be made. We are a well-established commercial investment company, and our first consideration is that the risk of the commercial project is controllable. In other words, we are more worried than you about the possibility of this project failing!"
"Thank you, Mr. Jetton, for your explanation. This is my personal curiosity, why did you consider Hujiang City?"
"There are two considerations: first, safety and environmental protection, it is more appropriate to build on the island, and second, it is convenient for water transportation, and the transportation cost of oil and gas import transportation and product sales is low. ”
"Huh, don't you think about domestically produced oil and gas?"
"Absolutely. But we still want to master the supply of raw materials through multiple channels, and we don't want to be controlled by others. ”
"I'm sorry, but I suddenly thought of a question, if you import oil and gas from overseas, and then sell petrochemicals in China, how will the foreign exchange balance problem be solved?
At this time, the three foreign-funded enterprises in China all have a foreign exchange balance problem. That is to say, how much foreign exchange raw materials you import, how much foreign exchange products you need to export. The same is true for the investment part. The foreign exchange part of the investment can be exchanged for foreign exchange at the official price and taken out of the country, and the excess part of the currency cannot be freely exchanged and transferred.
This is why, last year, the Hong Kong branch of the Bank of China was stubbornly recovering the renminbi at an ultra-low official price, because the renminbi in the foreign investment plan can be exchanged for foreign exchange at the official price. And Hong Kong's RMB black market market will be so prosperous. It will not be until a few years later, when the renminbi ends the dual-track system and the central bank launches a settlement and exchange center, that this problem is gradually resolved. In other words, it is simply transferring Hong Kong's black market to the mainland and making it public.
In the case of this project, it is obvious that oil imports are made in foreign currency, while sales in the Chinese market are obtained in renminbi, and it involves a huge flow of funds, which cannot be balanced by the black market in Hong Kong. Can you imagine how much impact this will have on the stability of the renminbi's exchange rate?
At this time, Wang Yongqing's "901 Project" promised that 100% of oil and gas were imported, and 100% of the products produced were also exported. It did not coerce the Chinese side to agree to the condition of 100% domestic sales, as was the case later.
For this problem, Jetton or Jing Jian has long considered it: "From an economic point of view, petrochemical projects must follow the principle of sales place, and it is not in line with the law of business to ship overseas to sell at a low price or at a loss." And it is precisely because we see that there will be explosive growth in China's petrochemical products market that we are interested in such a big project. As for oil and gas imports, according to the forecasts of our group's experts, China will become an oil importer in the next three to four years. ”
Jetton spread his hands and almost said, "I'm helpless too!"
In fact, many people do not know, or are misled by propaganda, that China is an oil-poor country. This is true in some ways, but not accurate in some way. China's oil and gas production has never fallen out of the top five in the world, even surpassing that of most oil-producing countries in the Middle East. The proven reserves of shale oil and shale gas are the first and third in the world. It is nothing more than the big killer of "per capita", coupled with the extreme demand for raw materials in the world's factories, which has led to China's oil and gas imports increasing year by year.
This is just like iron ore, China's iron ore is actually not lacking, what is lacking is actually rich ore, the economy is relatively poor, and the iron-making and steel-making equipment is all adapted to the refining of imported rich ore. So from a business point of view, we can only endure the annual surge of those mining trusts abroad. But from the point of view of strategic materials, it doesn't matter at all. When it comes to the blockade abroad, it is nothing more than using poor mines and domestic reserves. It's all blocked, will you still consider the cost issue?
Yu Zhu understood that what Jetton said made sense, but compared with the conditions of the "901 Project" at this time, there was absolutely no attraction left.
China's economy is macro-regulated, and it does not mean that you can invest whatever you want, thinking that you can only invest with money, and you still need to get approval, that is, the review and approval of the Planning Commission (later the National Development and Reform Commission).
For example, the Planning Commission predicts that the gap in China's petrochemical market in the next five years will be 1 million tons of ethylene, so if it gives 700,000 tons to the "901 Project" and the remaining 300,000 tons to domestic manufacturers, then Shuijing Group will have no share.
This is out of the consideration of preventing duplication and waste of construction, and it has indeed played a very good role in economic construction. However, there are some problems, such as insufficient forecasting of economic demand, which leads to a lag in construction. I don't know if you remember the nationwide power shortage? It is because the Three Gorges Project occupies most of the quota, resulting in other power stations not being approved. Unexpectedly, China's economic development is so rapid, and there is a sudden shortage of electricity? This has led to the vigorous development of power stations and transmission networks in various localities.
In fact, this is really helpless, even if big data is realized, who dares to predict China's economic development in 20 years? And at this time, who can predict that China's economy will open in the next 20 years? As a result, there will be a big gap in a large number of basic industries, including petrochemicals and electric power?
So in the end, Jetton offered a solution: "I can understand China's concerns, but we can solve this problem with some supplementary provisions." For example, we can promise to give up the exchange vouchers obtained in RMB within three years, gradually reduce the proportion of exchange rights in ten years, and use all the RMB dividends obtained to invest in Chinese mainland. Etcetera. The specific terms can be negotiated, and we have absolute sincerity. ”