1021. Difficulties in market recognition
In fact, Zhou Fangyuan has also thought about the problems that his grandfather cares about.
The question that Grandpa didn't ask, Zhou Fangyuan had already made a plan.
After all, he is a reborn, and who better to see the future than him?
New energy vehicles are indeed the general trend of the future, which is undeniable.
But until he was reborn, new energy vehicles were still far from being able to compete with traditional fuel vehicles.
Not only can not compete in the market, all aspects, including user recognition, new energy vehicles are not as good as fuel vehicles, it can only be said that new energy vehicles will rise sooner or later, that is, the time for the full rise is still to be determined.
When Zhou Fangyuan was reborn, new energy vehicles were just improving, and it was impossible to say that they were fully rolled out.
At that time, there were still many problems with new energy vehicles.
For the vast majority of users, the biggest doubt about new energy vehicles is whether they can buy them.
With the continuous development of the new energy field, more and more intelligent luxury electric vehicles are emerging in an endless stream.
The new energy vehicles on the market are broadly divided into two categories: the first is pure electric vehicles, and the second is plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Many people have doubts about whether new energy vehicles can be bought, but in fact, this question is mainly based on their actual needs. As far as the first type of pure electric vehicles is concerned, most of the pure electric vehicles have a range of about 100-600 kilometers, and a few can reach a range of 700 kilometers, but the actual range of electric vehicles is basically about 20% off. Even when charging stations are widely distributed, electric vehicles are bound to be weaker when dealing with long drives.
Of course, on the flip side, electric cars are very comfortable to travel around the city. The inherent advantages of electric vehicles, such as low noise, good driving quality, and fast dynamic response, are all its advantages. So if you have a fuel car at home and the charging conditions are good, there is no problem with a short trip back and forth in the city.
If you want to travel long distances and feel like an electric car, you should consider a plug-in hybrid model.
Generally, plug-in hybrid vehicles can have a range of up to 60-90 kilometers under pure electric drive, which can basically meet the urban commuting distance. If you want to go further, you can also use the combination of fuel engine and electric motor, in this way, the fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid vehicles will be relatively low. It is not much different from a gasoline engine in use, but it also combines the advantages of an electric car and is a car suitable for short or long trips.
In fact, in the final analysis, there is another reason why new energy vehicles are becoming more and more recognized by the public, that is, some cities have certain restrictions on traditional license plates, while new energy license plates are relatively easy to obtain, and you can drive your own car as soon as possible. Therefore, new energy vehicles are the general trend, but it depends on their own use environment, and the one that suits them is the best.
Regarding the issue of battery life, many people feel that the battery life and publicity of electric vehicles are no longer available.
Many manufacturers like to advertise the maximum cruising range, which is 60 kilometers per hour at a constant speed. This in itself is just a marketing gimmick and has no actual reference value.
Just like the maximum standby time of a mobile phone, it is said that it can be used for a long time, but in fact, who can really achieve a week's long standby?
Of course, it's not really impossible to do it, it's very simple to do a super long standby, empty the background, remove all SIM cards, turn off WiFi, and put it on the table stationary, it seems that there is nothing wrong with a week. But the question is, is this mobile phone still called a mobile phone? What is the point of buying a mobile phone?
This maximum cruising range, in the final analysis, is actually the result of the car manufacturer's collection of all the most favorable conditions for new energy vehicles.
For example, using the smallest rims, controlling the ambient temperature at the most efficient battery, not turning on the air conditioner, not turning on the heating, not using other electronic devices, etc., are very harsh. Just like the challenge to Guinness, everything is ready, this person can stay in this glass house and go without meals for 50 days, but ordinary people have to work and live normally, and it is impossible to go without meals for 50 days.
Before Zhou Fangyuan's rebirth, there were also many car companies, such as Tesla and Weilai, which would have a range calculator on their official websites. According to the different driving speeds of the car owners, different ambient temperatures and whether to turn on the air conditioning, the endurance of the vehicle in specific situations can be directly calculated.
The endurance calculated in this way will be more accurate and realistic, and it also shows that they are also more confident.
Consumers often see the mileage of new energy vehicles tested by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which uses the EU's NEDC test standards. But this thing is similar to the fuel consumption test of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on gasoline, and if you want to drive the data it gives, you basically can't open it.
The NEDC test process is carried out on the drum bench in situ, similar to running on the treadmill in situ. And it only performed a few simple start-stop and acceleration-deceleration cycles, and there were no actual road tests, so the test results were not particularly accurate.
In addition to the NEDC test standard, the United States adopts the endurance test formulated by the EPA. There are 4 types of cycles: urban conditions, high-speed conditions, and intense driving conditions. There is also a kind of LTP jointly formulated by Fuso, the United States, the European Union, etc., and the test is divided into four parts: low-speed, medium-speed, high-speed and ultra-high-speed. The above two are closer to the actual battery life than the NEDC.
What's more noteworthy is that if the cruising range is only marked as the working condition of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the NEDC is not mentioned, then the shrinkage will be even more severe, because only urban cycle tests are allowed in China. The test process directly skipped the high-speed part, and the results were very one-sided, far from the actual cruising range.
When it is actually used, there will be many uncertain factors, resulting in a further reduction in the range of electric vehicles.
The first is vehicle speed, which has a great impact on the endurance of new energy vehicles.
The efficiency of the electric motor of the new energy vehicle is relatively constant, and it will not be like the engine, and the efficiency will be greatly increased at high speed, so the side effects of high speed are obvious. Taking the 485km range version of a car as an example, the media test results show that the real range is 406km when driving at an average speed of 50km/h, and the final range is only 316km when driving at an average speed of 90km/h. Obviously, new energy vehicles drive at high speeds, because they need more output power, and the corresponding range will be worse.
In addition, air resistance is also one of the main culprits of electricity consumption. The data shows that when the car is below 60 km/h, the air resistance has little effect. However, when the speed exceeds 80 kilometers per hour, the air resistance will exponentially increase, accounting for more than 60% of the total vehicle resistance. It is equivalent to doubling the resistance, and the energy consumption is naturally not low.
This is also the reason why popular electric vehicles such as Tesla and BYD pay great attention to the aerodynamic design of the body.
After the speed, there is another point that cannot be left out, that is, the driving temperature, the temperature of this thing, has a great impact on the battery life.
For example, in many alpine regions, such as the three eastern provinces, it is difficult for you to turn on your smartphone without sticking a warm baby to your smartphone. Whether it is ternary lithium or lithium iron phosphate, it is such a process that converts chemical energy into electrical energy. When the temperature is low in winter, the activity of the substances in the battery will decrease, which is a factor that affects the rate and completeness of the chemical reaction, which will lead to a decrease in battery power and poor battery life.
A professional automotive power battery evaluation agency once showed that the best working temperature of a new energy vehicle battery is 25°C. If the temperature of 25 °C is taken as the benchmark, the average winter temperature in China is -1 °C, and the low temperature attenuation of the battery is more than 15%, and if it is -20 °C in the north, the attenuation is even worse, more than 57%, shrinking by more than half.
In addition, there are air conditioning, heating, and stereo when you drive, and this electrical configuration is also very power-hungry when in use.
Finally, road conditions also have an impact on the endurance of new energy vehicles. Like stop-and-go traffic jams, frequent sharp acceleration, uphill and downhill climbs, etc......
Therefore, the battery life of electric vehicles, sometimes it is really not that the manufacturer deliberately deceives people, but the environment they test is completely different from the natural environment. The natural environment is intricate, sometimes hot, sometimes cold. When it's cold, the battery is not strong, and when it's hot, the battery is easy to explode, and the data given by people is laboratory data.
Putting this aside, electric vehicles are actually still very powerful, otherwise before Zhou Fangyuan's rebirth, electric vehicles would not become more and more popular.
Lottery listing or something, this is relatively simple, needless to say.
In addition, to be practical, electric cars, he saves money.
The first is the national policy, taking the capital as an example.
Since 2010, China has begun to provide subsidies for new energy vehicles to promote the volume of domestic new energy vehicles.
Not only have the state started to implement subsidies, but local governments are also stepping up their efforts to promote them. According to the data, in 2016, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in Beijing is: pure electric vehicles are subsidized by 25,000 yuan, 45,000 yuan and 55,000 yuan respectively according to the driving range. In 2009, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was less than 300, and by 2016, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 300,000.
In terms of policy alone, consumers can save a lot of money.
Secondly, the cost of using the car is also low, even if you use more of it, only 5,000 yuan a year is almost enough.
Pure electric vehicles are very cost-effective, you know, a B-class car only commute to work for a month of fuel costs close to 1,000 yuan, a year has been more than 10,000.
Many people are worried about the problem of electric vehicle charging, in fact, this does not have to worry too much, since the country wants to vigorously promote electric vehicles, the charging problem will of course be solved.
Before Zhou Fangyuan's rebirth, the number of various charging piles in the country had reached 1.322 million, including 558,000 public charging piles. In addition, "increasing facilities such as charging piles and battery swap stations" has also been included in the scope of new infrastructure. The National Development and Reform Commission has announced that it will invest about 10 billion yuan to add about 200,000 new public piles, more than 400,000 private piles and 48,000 public charging stations. Such strong support has actually solved the problem of difficult charging to a large extent.
As far as Zhou Fangyuan knew, before he was reborn, many people had bought electric cars in Beitong City alone. There are also many electric car streets, and there are many consumers who go there every day.
But, well, how to put it, there is a very real problem.
That is, electric vehicles do not retain their value very much, and it can even be said that they are depreciating too quickly.
Take an electric car of about 200,000 yuan as an example, after driving for three or four years, the maximum endurance drops to about 350 kilometers, in fact, the condition of this car is not bad, but if it is sold again, it is good to sell it for 50,000 yuan. Even Tesla, which has the highest value retention rate, will drop to 70% in value after a new car is driven for a year. It can be said that the low value retention rate is also a major problem for electric vehicles.
But this can't be helped, who made electric vehicles develop too fast?
New technologies are constantly emerging, and electric vehicles change a little every six months and a big change every year. A year ago, it was an advanced electric car, a year later it has begun to fall behind, the price of the electric car itself is lower than that of fuel vehicles, consumers are less pressured to buy, coupled with technological upgrading, people directly buy a new car is not good? Why buy an old car?
Therefore, electric vehicles have advantages and disadvantages, which are painful in the development process, and there is really no way to eliminate them.
This situation also existed in the very early stage of the development of fuel vehicles, in fact, no matter what it was, it would face this situation when it first appeared.
Isn't it the same with smartphones?
Especially when smartphones first appeared, the configuration was not high, but the price was not low, and the replacement was particularly fast.
A year ago, it was still a 3.5-inch screen, 2G memory, 16G storage. A year later, it will become a five-inch screen, 4G memory, and 64G storage. The price is still about the same, just ask, if anyone is a consumer, who will choose the former, and who will choose the latter? Smartphones, almost until 15 or 16 years in the previous life, the situation of ultra-fast replacement gradually stopped. After all, at that time, with the scientific and technological level of human beings, it could only be a continuous superposition of hardware, and there was no room for rapid development in technology.
The same goes for cars.
The situation of new energy vehicles in the previous life is because the technical reserves are sufficient, so new technologies can continue to appear, and electric vehicles are the same every year, and the value retention rate will naturally not go up.
Zhou Fangyuan now wants to make new energy vehicles, which is more difficult than in his previous life, but fortunately, he has fewer competitors. In addition, the domestic market is still in the ascendant, and there is still room for the development of fuel vehicles, so he can quietly carry out research and development first. Strive to come up with a mature enough version at once when he is ready to launch an electric car. Tesla was founded in '03, and in '04 Elon Musk joined the company in '04 and led the Series A financing, and their first electric car was launched in '08.
At that time, the whole market, basically just one company developing electric vehicles, was initially completely unacceptable to the market.
Zhou Fangyuan and Elon Musk have a good relationship, but he is not ready to invest in Tesla, because Musk will definitely not allow him to intervene, a SpaceX, a Tesla, a SolarCity, is Musk's lifeblood, even PayPal's status is not comparable to the first three, especially the first two, that is definitely Musk's ban, absolutely impossible to allow him to interfere.
And Zhou Fangyuan is not willing to share his success with Musk, so he either doesn't do it, or if he wants to do it, he must do it himself.
Others can still be regarded as wading through the water and crossing the river in the dark, he Zhou Fangyuan has already directly seen the other side of the river, what reason is there to lose to others?