Guo Yongkun accidentally landed.

I don't blame my buddies for their lack of concentration, but I blame that there are too many temptations in this bewitching society.

In the kind of scene last night, you just changed Yue Buqun, and he couldn't hold back.

When I woke up in the morning, I glanced left and right, and felt an indescribable sense of shame in my heart, so I quickly slipped out of bed, picked up my clothes, and tiptoed out of the room, like a thief with a weak heart.

"Mr. Guo, it's early. ”

I had just come down the stairs and was about to escape through the gate when a voice suddenly came from the side, something familiar.

Guo Yongkun was taken aback, and turned his neck mechanically, only to find a tall and thin middle-aged man wearing gold-rimmed glasses, standing in front of the sofa in the living room at this time, looking at him with a smile on his face.

The other party's address to him has changed, from "Little Guo" to "Mr. Guo".

"Uncle Lu?"

Guo Yongkun patted his head, and then remembered that when he was drunk in a daze last night, Wen Caini came over and begged him for something.

He couldn't remember if he said yes.

"Zeni called me last night and said that you agree with me, so come in the morning, and I rushed over. ”

It seems that it was agreed. Sure enough, drinking was cool for a while, and the crematorium afterwards.

God-damn Chen Dashao, together with his concubine, pit Lao Tzu?

This Qiu Guo Yongkun wrote it down.

"What the hell do you want to know?"

Guo Yongkun's attitude became a little unpleasant, because he didn't have to think about it, he knew that Wen Caini had formed this crazy game, and someone must have instructed him behind it.

And this person will not be someone else, far away, close at hand.

It's a bus old, and I don't know how ashamed it is.

He was very disgusted with this kind of behavior.

Lu Xiwen was not angry, pulled him to the leather sofa and sat down, and ordered the maid to pour a cup of coffee.

"I just want to ask, how long have you been studying U.S. stocks?" Lu Xiwen said with a smile.

"For a while. The temperature of the coffee was just right, Guo Yongkun poured it in one go, and the maid saw this and refilled another cup for him.

Lu Xiwen thought that it was true, and said that without hard work, it was impossible to have this self-confidence.

Of course, talent is also indispensable.

In his opinion, the young man in front of him must have a keen intuition about the securities market that is different from ordinary people.

This trait is so rare that the industry calls such people "geniuses". However, there are always a few examples, such as Warren Buffett, such as Soros.

"So, what do you see that the U.S. stock market will fall sharply?"

"Do you believe it?" Guo Yongkun asked rhetorically. At this time, he couldn't say it, he didn't want to answer the other party's question at all, but the so-called eating people has a short mouth and a soft hand, and he was really greedy last night.

"To be honest, I'm half convinced, but I'd rather the feeling was wrong. Lu Xiwen sighed.

"In fact, the collapse of U.S. stocks is inevitable, not accidental......" Guo Yongkun shook his not very clear head, trying to organize language to deal with this senior boss.

Fortunately, he really studied the stock market crash in 1987.

Lu Xiwen pricked up his ears and posed as if he was listening carefully.

"You're a professional, and you should know that in fact, last year, the U.S. economy had problems. ”

"You mean the slowdown in economic growth?" Lu Xiwen answered.

"That's right. Guo Yongkun said: "The U.S. economy has been developing at a high speed for 50 years, but last year, it suddenly softened and entered a stage of slow development. In fact, this is already a harbinger, the market has realized that the growth rate of the virtual economy far exceeds the growth of the real economy, and the value of stocks is too high, and a bubble is gradually formed. ”

"Bubble?" Lu Xiwen glared, it was the first time he had heard someone use this term to describe the stock market.

What is Bubble?

The kind that will crack when you poke it.

"To give you a very simple example, for example, an old shareholder, in the past 50 years, his earnings in the stock market have been considerable, and continue to grow year by year, but in 1986, the stock in his hand suddenly did not rise, or the income decreased significantly. What do you think he would think?

"The rhetoric about the stock market's 'boom and fall' has never been interrupted. Besides, there are no precedents for stock market crashes. Therefore, the panic psychology of shareholders has actually formed. ”

When Lu Xiwen heard this, he already saw sweat on his forehead, and he had to admit that the young man in front of him was right. Not to mention investors, after the U.S. economic slowdown last year, he lost some confidence in U.S. stocks and biased more of his investment business towards fast-growing Japanese stocks.

However, he did not realize that the US stock market would change, but as most experts analyzed, he believed that the economy could not maintain high-speed growth forever, and after reaching a certain stage, it would gradually stabilize, and there would be a necessary process to adapt to social development.

"It's just a point, there's a more important part. Guo Yongkun looked at Lu Xiwen and said: "You should know better than me that the operation mode of the major stock exchanges now is completely different from that of the beginning of this century. ”

After thinking about it, Lu Xiwen said, "You mean the microcomputer operation mode?"

"Yes. Guo Yongkun nodded, "The microcomputer system of the stock exchange adopts a program trading mode, and the program will calculate stock price changes in real time and formulate buying and selling strategies, so that bulk stock trading and futures trading can be bought and sold at the same time." The advancement and application of this technology naturally has many advantages, freeing the brains and hands of programmers, and making transactions smoother and faster.

"However, this trading model will be very useful when the market is favorable. But can you imagine what would happen if one day the market opened and there was a sharp downward trend?"

Lu Xiwen was suddenly startled, and the corners of his mouth began to twitch, "If this is the case, the computer trading program will start selling the stock according to the mechanism that has been set in the program a long time ago." ”

"That's right!" Guo Yongkun said in a deep voice: "This will instantly accelerate the downward trend of stock prices, and the falling stock prices will inevitably affect shareholders, who will sell stocks one after another, at this time, the program analyzes that the stock price will have a further downward trend, and will sell stocks again and in larger quantities." As a result, a vicious circle is formed. ”

"Oh my God!" Lu Xiwen was shocked, he had never thought that there was such a big loophole in the current securities trading model.

This is a typical good life, and I didn't expect a crisis to break out.

"No, no, no. Suddenly, he realized something, waved his hand vigorously and said: "You are just assuming, there is no unfavorable news coming out now, and there is no major event that shakes the economy, how can the US stock market collapse as soon as the market opens?"

"Who said no?" Guo Yongkun squinted at him and said, "We have analyzed it just now, and the panic psychology of shareholders has been formed, right?"

Lu Xiwen nodded and said, "Okay, I admit this." But what about the thorn that punctured your so-called bubble? Why are you sure that U.S. stocks will plummet on Monday?"

When he said this, he also pointed out the window, which seemed to say: The sky is full of morning sunshine outside, and it is clear.

Guo Yongkun raised his hand and looked at his watch, a quarter past 9, minus the thirteen-hour time difference, Americans have just entered the nightlife now, and they are still October 17th, Saturday.

"You should know that since Ronald Reagan came to power in 1981, Wall Street has been uncertain, the government's huge deficit has not shrunk significantly, and borrowing money from foreigners to fill their own pockets is not a long-term solution after all. Therefore, there has been a debate about whether the Fed should lower interest rates. ”

Lu Xiwen frowned, not knowing why he suddenly mentioned this.

However, he still answered: "Well, I know this matter very well, not long ago, the finance ministers of the seven countries also held a meeting in Washington, but the trouble was very unpleasant, and the finance minister Baker once again urged the partners of the industrial countries to help reduce the US trade deficit. The result was unpleasant. ”

"That's good. Guo Yongkun didn't say anything more, and stood up, "Go to bed later tonight, I believe you will definitely have a channel to get first-hand important news from the United States." ”

"......" Lu Xiwen paused, thinking that I hadn't finished my words yet.

However, Guo Yongkun felt that he had "done his best to be benevolent", so he ignored it and strode out of the door.

When Lu Xiwen chased him out and wanted to dissuade him, he had already driven away with a tiger's head.

"What do you mean?" Standing in the courtyard, thinking about what the other party had just said, Lu Xiwen scratched his head, looking a little confused.

"Let me follow the U.S. news at night, what's going to happen?"

......

At night.

Goldman Sachs, Office of the Senior Vice President.

Lu Xiwen didn't go home, he didn't even have the heart to sleep now, he lay on the boss's chair, closed his eyes and recuperated.

After meeting Guo Yongkun in the morning, he went to the United States to make a phone call and told his colleague and friend Tom that he should get up early tomorrow morning, pay close attention to major social news, and notify him immediately if there is any news.

He'll wait until lunchtime in the U.S., and if not, forget it.

So, although he opened his eyes from time to time to look at the red landline on his desk, he didn't really want it to ring.

"Yes, don't make a sound, I'd rather waste this night. Lu Xiwen muttered to himself.

The hour hand of the Omega watch in my hand had just passed twenty-two, and it was already 9 o'clock in the morning in the United States, and the morning news had already aired.

Luckily, the phone didn't ring.

Lu Xiwen couldn't help but let out a sigh of relief, and his face was happy.

"Guo Yongkun, Guo Yongkun, I admit that you are a genius, and your sense of smell in the stock market is quite keen, if you continue to study the securities industry, you are likely to become the Buffett among the Chinese in the future. However, after all, you are a human being, not a god, or rather, you still owe some fire.

"U.S. stocks do have a tendency to collapse, but it's a pity that you miscalculated, it's not on Monday, October 19th.

"That means I still have the opportunity and time to deal with it.

"But thank you for giving me a wake-up call. ”

Lu Xiwen has already thought about it, and will go back later to sleep well, and get up tomorrow to write an analysis report on the decline of the U.S. stock market, submit it to the U.S. headquarters, and suggest that the group comprehensively shrink its business in the U.S. market.

There is no mistake