Yang Jie, who was sitting in the corner of the conference table, saw that Chief Song Xinyang called his name, so he had to speak: "Regarding the subprime mortgage crisis of Eagle Sauce, our company's internal financial expert group has also done some research, and the conclusion is similar to what Director Liu just said, we expect that Eagle Sauce will usher in a new round of greater financial impact in the second half of this year, dragging the global economy into a long period of weakness." ”

"Dong Yang, how long are you talking about?"

An official asked with a frown.

Everyone is still worried about the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the country.

"More than five years. ”

Yang Jie opened his mouth and said.

There was a buzz in the conference room, and many people looked suspicious.

"I'm afraid not, right?"

An official said: "Our forecasts also suggest that there will be a more serious crisis in the second half of the year, but at most until around 2010, when the recovery should begin." Western countries still have some experience in dealing with the crisis, and both Eagle Sauce and the European Union have introduced policies to stimulate the economy, and if these policies work, this round of crisis will last for a maximum of three years, and it will be over. ”

Yang Jie said with a smile: "Western countries do have a relatively mature crisis intervention mechanism, which has also played a role in the past. However, this financial crisis is different from the past, and it may not be so easy for Western countries to get out of the quagmire quickly. ”

"What's the difference?

Song Xinyang also asked.

"The biggest reason why we have this prediction is actually our country. ”

"What do you mean?" some officials asked Yang Jie suspiciously.

"In fact, the Western countries have intervened in the crisis by introducing economic stimulus policies to encourage businesses to invest in order to restore economic vitality. In the past, they could do so, because they could absorb the stimulated capacity through the markets of developing countries, which is equivalent to using the markets of developing countries to fill the gaps in their domestic markets. ”

"What's the difference now?"

"The biggest difference now is that China has become the world's factory. The market of developing countries now belongs to us, and if Western countries want to occupy this market, it will have to pay a great price, and it will not be as easy to reap the rewards as in the past. Not only that, but we're also making inroads into Western markets and taking food out of their mouths, which makes it harder for them to digest capacity and harder for the economy to recover. ”

"This situation has never been encountered by Western countries before, that is to say, their previous tricks of digesting overcapacity by knocking on other markets have failed, and through one or two decades of low-end industrial transfer, the manufacturing industry of Eagle Sauce and many Western countries itself has been greatly weakened, and the global market capacity of the high-end industries they have mastered is limited, and the effect of stimulating their domestic economy is not great in the short term. ”

Yang Jie opened his mouth and said.

Song Xinyang nodded slowly, "What you said is very reasonable, in the past, when there was an economic crisis in Western countries, the first measure to take was to export a large number of domestic products to other markets to digest their own production capacity, which is a transfer crisis." Now that our country has become the world's factory, a large part of the markets of the developing countries are occupied by us, and it is indeed quite difficult for the Western countries to snatch these markets from us. ”

"Yang Jie, if the subprime mortgage crisis is really as serious as you said, then our domestic exports will also be hit hard, and the economic crisis of Western countries will reduce their imports, and our exports are mainly facing Western countries. The research center of the Ministry of Commerce estimates that the country's exports may have negative growth next year, and the situation is very serious. ”

Zeng Jiabao said with a frown.

"Indeed, many of our large enterprises have also expressed concern that the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in Western countries will reduce investment, and next year's export orders will be greatly affected. ”

An official from Guó Zī Wěi chimed in.

Song Xinyang said: "Since everyone has talked about this topic, Yang Jie made a separate report to me the day before yesterday, I think he and his company's internal expert group still have some merit, and now the comrades of various ministries and commissions are there, I asked him to say it, and everyone discussed and discussed it together." ”

Yang Jie is the founder of Huaxing Group, the largest private enterprise in China, although he is not a member of the system, but the senior management attaches great importance to his opinions, and will also ask his opinions on some major decisions, and officials of various ministries and commissions are well aware of this, and they do not feel strange that he appeared in this meeting.

Song Xinyang called Yang Jie's name and asked him to speak, which proves that the high-level approval of Yang Jie's reporting work, and to a certain extent, it also represents the attitude of the high-level on this issue.

Yang Jie knew that this was not an occasion for hypocrisy, so he sat up straight, "Everyone, Chief Song asked me to speak, then I will say a little bit of my own shallow opinion, and I should throw bricks and lead the way, please correct me a lot." ”

"Haha, don't dare to correct it, Yang Dong's point of view has always been refreshing. ”

Director Liu said with a smile.

At this time, some officials also spread out their notebooks, picked up pens and began to prepare for records.

"This time the subprime mortgage crisis, in fact, is not surprising, just now Professor Chen Yun has introduced the views of the mainstream economic circles in the West, that this crisis has been symptomatic as early as five years ago, the reason for such a big crisis is that the entire Western world from the eighties began to support the neoliberal economic policy, the national level abandoned the policy of supporting industry, a large amount of capital poured into the financial industry, out of the real economy, blindly relying on the financial market to beat the drum to maintain prosperity. ”

"The reason why there was no big problem before was that Eagle Sauce and Western countries got the market of the Soviet Union, and it also allowed the economies of Western countries to maintain prosperity for a relatively long time.

"Now there is no such big market in the world to stimulate the economies of these Western countries again, which is why we think that Western countries will fall into a long-term economic downturn. ”

Yang Jie said: "This subprime mortgage crisis began with Eagle Sauce, but we estimate that the most affected should be Europe. When Yingchan encounters this kind of thing, he is accustomed to beggar-thy-neighbor, and the establishment of the European Union has always been a pain in Yingchan's heart, taking this opportunity, Yingchan will definitely find ways to weaken Europe, and it is best to make the EU fall apart. Based on this analysis, our in-house panel of international financial experts believes that Europe is likely to experience a severe sovereign debt crisis in the coming years, with many countries in dire straits. This is also a great opportunity for us to further open up the European market. ”

"For overseas export markets, we want to further occupy the markets of third world countries. The markets of Western countries are shrinking, and we should make up for it from third world countries, and the other is to take advantage of Europe's internal weakness to take the initiative to enter the European market. ”

"Africa is a traditional colony of Europeans, and although it is now independent, it is still heavily dependent on Europe economically, and Europeans see Africa as their backyard. It's not enough to go to someone's backyard to wander around, but also take the initiative to enter the European market, and you are not afraid that the Europeans will find you desperate?"

Zeng Jiabao said.

Yang Jie said with a smile: "Now that the Western world is in an economic crisis, investment is sluggish, and Western countries will become more and more dependent on our domestic market in the future, which is no longer a trend that can be controlled by European political decision-makers." ”

He paused and said: "Of course, these aspects still need to be guided by some policies at the national level, and I think the impact of this economic crisis on domestic exports can still recover within two to three years, or even reach a higher level." ”