Chapter 334: Black Saturday

In July 1982, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar was 5.2:1, and as the Sino-British negotiations began, a panic began to permeate the Hong Kong community, and many people began to sell the Hong Kong dollar. By July 1983, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar had fallen to 7.2:1, a depreciation of 18% in one year.

With the start of the second phase of negotiations between China and the UK, the Hong Kong dollar sell-off intensified, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar fell to 7.89:1 on September 14. On September 16, the Hong Kong government's financial secretary announced that it was impossible to fix the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar at any particular level, which further sent people into panic.

On September 24, Hong Kong Media released a communiqué on the "Fourth Round of Sino-British Negotiations". At the instigation of the British government in Hong Kong, many Hong Kong media directly introduced the results of the talks between the two sides when they issued a communiqué, but did not use words such as "useful and constructive" as in the past.

After the communiqué was issued, many people feared that the negotiations would break down and China would directly take back Xiangjiang, so the whole Xiangjiang was completely in a panic. On that day, almost all foreign businessmen refused to accept Hong Kong dollars, while the media and financial institutions pointed the finger at the British government in Hong Kong, trying to figure out whether the Hong Kong financial system would have sufficient repayment capacity in the future. Speculators couldn't wait for the Hong Kong government's reply, and frantically sold Hong Kong stocks in the market, and the Hong Kong stock exchange market plummeted by more than 100 points as soon as it opened.

Speculators frantically sold stocks, sending a strong signal to investors from all walks of life: public opinion is not wrong, and the future of Hong Kong is really worrying. Small and medium-sized investors were suddenly frightened and began to follow up one after another, frantically selling their stocks. By the end of the day, the Hang Seng Index had fallen to 700 points.

The panic caused by the stock market avalanche soon leaked from the financial markets to the streets, and citizens who heard that the future of Xiangjiang was uncertain had no other way but to go to the banks to exchange dollars. However, when they rushed into the bank, they found that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar had plummeted from 1:7.3 to a record low of 1:9.7, and some banks even asked for 1:10.

However, this did not stop the people of Hong Kong from exchanging their Hong Kong dollars into US dollars, but only intensified their fears that if they did not quickly convert their Hong Kong dollars into US dollars, they might fall even more.

There were long queues in front of the banks in Hong Kong, and countless Hong Kong citizens took out their deposits and exchanged their Hong Kong dollars for US dollars. From large banks such as HSBC and Standard Chartered to small and medium-sized banks, they are all in the storm of crazy runs.

Banking business is mainly divided into deposits and loans, and the cash reserves of any bank must be far less than the number of deposits, otherwise it is impossible to operate normally.

Now countless Xiangjiang citizens have run into the bank to withdraw their money and exchange it for US dollars, but the bank does not have so much cash in hand and not so many US dollars to exchange, so many banks have begun to limit the amount of money that depositors can withdraw.

This did not dispel the concerns of the people of Hong Kong, but further exacerbated everyone's panic. More and more Xiangjiang citizens began to queue up to withdraw money, and many families even went out as a family.

Due to the difficulty of withdrawing money and exchanging dollars, many people have come up with more ruthless ways to rush into supermarkets to snap up all kinds of goods, food, dry goods, and even furniture...... They all know that the Hong Kong dollar is depreciating wildly, and it will definitely be more expensive to buy goods after the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, and now the supermarket has not had time to revise the price, and it is the most cost-effective to rush to buy now.

Driven by these people, the entire Xiangjiang society has formed a herd effect, and the whole society has completely fallen into panic, and countless people have rushed into supermarkets and shopping malls to start buying various items. From firewood, rice, oil and salt to refrigerators and color TVs, people rushed to buy everything that could maintain its value, and some people simply drove their cars to purchase.

The whole Xiangjiang is a scene of apocalypse, and this day is called "Black Saturday" by the citizens of Xiangjiang in later generations.

When he returned to his room at night, Xu Wangqiu turned on the TV and found that almost all the media were reporting on it.

In a supermarket in Mong Kok, a middle-aged woman in her 50s complained to reporters: "First the bread and biscuits were gone, then the vegetables were gone, and finally even the oil, salt, sauce and vinegar were gone, and now there is nothing." ”

At the door of a supermarket in the New Territories, a young white-collar worker told reporters with a depressed face: "I heard that everyone was rushing to buy, so I hurried to the supermarket, but I only grabbed a few apples." I don't know if the price of the supermarket will rise, life is already difficult now, and if the price increases, I really can't survive. ”

In Tsim Sha Tsui, a reporter stood in an empty supermarket and said in a heavy tone: "Bread, biscuits, eggs, and milk have long been gone; there are not many fruits and vegetables left; and even toilet paper, disinfectant and other daily necessities have been looted." ”

Xu Wangqiu looked at the TV, and a smile appeared on the corner of his mouth. Before Xu Wangqiu's rebirth, Xiangjiang society was in chaos, and many people were discussing why Xiangjiang was in chaos. Many of the articles that tell the history of Hong Kong will refer to the "Black Saturday" of 1983 and the linked exchange rate system introduced by the Hong Kong government after the "Black Saturday".

Xu Wangqiu turned his head to Yan Hao and said, "Now Xiangjiang is in chaos, and the crew is also panicking. In this case, it is difficult for everyone to concentrate on shooting, so it is better to take a temporary vacation. In this way, you notify the production crew, let them send an announcement, and the crew will have a three-day holiday. I'll call Sister Xia Meng and tell her about it. ”

During the daytime filming, the family members of some crew members of the crew ran to the crew to discuss whether to exchange dollars and whether to rush to buy various goods. The whole crew was panicked, the filming was greatly affected, and the scheduled shooting plan was only half completed. Yan Hao felt that it was right to take a temporary holiday, so he said, "I'll go right away." ”

In economics, there is a famous Mundell's impossible triangle principle: a country cannot maintain a fixed exchange rate, an independent monetary policy, and free convertibility of capital at the same time. In other words, there are three crucial areas in the macroeconomic field of any country: a stable exchange rate for currencies, an independent monetary policy, and free convertibility of currencies.

Any country that has a system and policy can only choose two of them, and must give up one. It is impossible to have three at the same time, although all three are very desirable for all sovereign states to have both.

For example, developed countries in the West, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, choose to have independent monetary policies, free convertibility of currencies, and give up control over currency exchange rates. The advantage of this is that currencies can be freely convertible, capital can move freely, and currencies can be globalized and occupy a certain share of international settlements. At present, the mainstream international settlement currencies are the US dollar, the euro and the British pound.

However, while enjoying the benefits of free convertibility, it also brings huge financial risks. Any country's economy has a fluctuation cycle, and if the currency is freely convertible, it is an opportunity for international capital to snipe. For example, in the 1998 Asian financial crisis, financial capital led by Soros first sniped Thailand, which greatly damaged Thailand's vitality, and then sniped at Xiangjiang.

In order to ensure the steady and rapid development of the economy, China has chosen an independent monetary policy and a stable exchange rate, and has given up the free convertibility of the renminbi. This ensures financial security, but the fact that the renminbi is not freely convertible also brings a major drawback, that is, foreign capital is hesitant to enter the mainland.

For example, an American capitalist is ready to invest $1 billion to build a factory in Chinese mainland, but before building a factory in China, he must first convert dollars into RMB, $1 billion is equivalent to 7 billion yuan, and after 7 billion is invested, it will become 10 billion three years later. If the American capitalists want to bring the money to the United States, according to the current Chinese foreign exchange system, they have to submit an application to exchange the money for dollars and get it back. If the state does not give the exchange, then the funds will not be able to go out. For capital, the risk is greatly exacerbated.

However, Xu Wangqiu knew that China would make the Mundell Impossible Triangle possible in the future, because Xiangjiang returned in 1997 and Xiangjiang would keep its original system unchanged. In the hinterland, the state pursued an independent monetary policy and a stable exchange rate, giving up the free convertibility of the renminbi, while in Xiangjiang, it chose monetary policy and free convertibility of the currency, giving up control over the currency exchange rate. The merger of the two swords of Xiangjiang and the mainland will make the impossible possible.

Before Xu Wangqiu's rebirth, the Yellow Corpse of Xiangjiang made trouble, and in addition to the British making waves, the CIA was the most important promoter. The reason why the United States attacked Xiangjiang was that it felt that China's combination punch was too powerful, that it had turned the impossible into a possibility, and that it could not play China at all, so it wanted to bring down Xiangjiang and knock off one of China's hands, so that China would not be able to play a combination boxing.

Some people in Xiangjiang dare to put forward conditions to the state and dare to jump out to make trouble, but they also see this, feel that Xiangjiang is too important to the country, and feel that without Xiangjiang, the currency cannot be freely convertible, and foreign capital will not dare to enter the mainland. They feel that the state does not dare to do anything to them, and even if they make trouble, the country has to coax them and give them candy to eat.

It's just that these people overestimate the importance of the Xiangjiang River, not to mention that there is Macao next to the Xiangjiang River, even if there is no Xiangjiang and Macao, will foreign capital really not dare to enter China? Obviously not. Vietnam's currency is not freely convertible, but before Xu Wangqiu's rebirth, Vietnam was able to attract tens of billions of dollars in foreign investment every year. The Vietnamese dong is not freely convertible, but foreign capital still enters.

Marx said long ago that once there is a proper profit, capital will be emboldened; if there is a 10% profit, it will be guaranteed to be used everywhere; if there is a 20% profit, it will become active; if there is a 50% profit, it will take risks; if there is a 100% profit, it will dare to trample on all human laws; and if there is a 300% profit, it will dare to commit any crime, even the danger of hanging.

In fact, for the country, Xiangjiang is a financial tool in hand, it will be much more convenient to do business with a tool, and it will be more troublesome to do business without this tool, but it is not impossible to do it. Many people in Xiangjiang don't understand this, thinking that they can't do it without themselves, which is really stupid.

Of course, these are all afterthoughts, and now that the Xiangjiang stock market and foreign exchange market have collapsed, how can the Xiangjiang government not rescue the market, the Xiangjiang economy will be completely ruined, just like Thailand after the Asian financial crisis. Hui Wangqiu remembers very well that shortly after the outbreak of Black Saturday, the Hong Kong government introduced the linked exchange rate system, which tied the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, and the note-issuing banks exchanged the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 7.8 Hong Kong dollars, and paid US dollars to the Exchange Fund in advance. At the same time, the government has also promised that after the Hong Kong dollar cash is repatriated from circulation, the issuing bank can also use the exchange rate to redeem the US dollar.

That is to say, if you convert the US dollar in your hand into Hong Kong dollars at this time, 1 US dollar can be exchanged for 9.7 yuan, and after a month, as long as 7.8 Hong Kong dollars, you can exchange it for 1 US dollar, making a net profit of 1.9 Hong Kong dollars. If you have a million US dollars in your hand, you can easily earn 1.9 million Hong Kong dollars in a month.

This is definitely an opportunity to make a lot of money, and one of the important reasons why Xu Wangqiu agreed to Xia Meng to come to Xiangjiang to make a movie is that he wants to take advantage of this opportunity to make a lot of money. However, Xu Wangqiu had no money in his hands, let alone dollars, so he could only find someone to cooperate.

Xu Wangqiu knows a lot of rich people, but there are not many who really trust him and may lend him money, Xia Meng should be regarded as one. After asking Yan Hao to inform the crew that he was on vacation, he dialed Xia Meng's phone: "Sister Xia Meng, I have something I want to ask you." ”