Chapter 341: It's Scary
After obtaining Shen Qi's consent, the American weekly Science included Shen Qi's paper "Research on New Seismic Models" and sent reporters to interview Shen Qi.
Science, which currently has an IF value of 37.212, is slightly lower than Nature, has previously rejected Shen Qi's paper on condensed matter physics on the grounds that Shen Qi is too esoteric and highly theoretical to be read by most ordinary readers.
In this "Research on New Seismic Models", Shen Qi's writing style is more popular science, he omits the complex mathematical deduction and calculation of long and long, and most people with university knowledge can understand what he writes.
The host publishes a physics paper in Science, and the basic reward is 50,000 Xueba points, multiplied by the IF value of 37.212, and the final reward is 1,860,600 Xueba points. ”
Seismology belongs to a branch of physics, and the more than 1.8 million students have been counted in physics.
A reporter from Science asked, "Professor Shen, what do you think of the famous paper "Earthquakes Are Unpredictable" published in Nature last year?"
"This is misleading. Shen Qi said very directly, he does not agree with the views of those famous seismologists: "The article "Earthquakes Are Unpredictable" puts forward two assumptions, one is that since most people think that earthquakes are a self-organizing critical phenomenon, earthquakes cannot be predicted. The second is that earthquake prediction has not been successful so far, so it will not succeed in the future. ”
"Huh. Shen Qi smiled and said, "If it is deduced from these two assumptions that earthquakes cannot be predicted, then physics has no meaning to exist, and seismology should be classified under the banner of philosophy or theology." ”
"Many seismic models that study self-organizing criticality use the spring-slide model, or Bridge-Nopoff model, which does not take into account the physics and mathematical treatment of earthquakes. ”
"For example, what kind of mathematical and physical model relationship exists between aftershocks and mainshocks, can we deny quantitative description? You must know that many of the earthquakes we encounter are actually aftershocks of previous major earthquakes, and we cannot simply use the theory of self-organizing criticality to conclude that earthquakes cannot be predicted. Shen Qi expounded his academic views.
The reporter made a key point in the small notebook: "So Professor Shen, your research results and forecast accuracy have dealt a heavy blow to the 'earthquake unpredictable school'. ”
Shen Qi: "Hey, man, you said this, I didn't say it." ”
The reporter asked: "As far as I know, Professor Shen not only gave an early warning to the New Zealand earthquake network, but also sent a similar warning email to the American earthquake network and the Russian earthquake network on the same day?"
The news in the media was too well-informed, Shen Qi knew that he couldn't hide it, so he simply said bluntly: "Yes, one day more than a month ago, I sent three emails to the American earthquake network, the Russian earthquake network, and the New Zealand earthquake network, providing four coordinates. ”
"Okay, thanks. "The reporter's interview mission is over.
After the interview with Shen Qi was published in Science, the experts and scholars of the "Earthquake Unpredictable School" were unhappy.
Professor Wellington of the University of California, Los Angeles, who has published an article in Nature, said: "I don't think Shen Qi's so-called new seismic model is better than the classical model, yes, he guessed the 5.5 magnitude earthquake in the sea 188 kilometers south of Campbell Island, and the occasional good luck once or twice happens to everyone, which does not prove anything." ”
The U.S. Earthquake Network and the Russian Earthquake Network took a wait-and-see attitude, telling the people not to easily believe anyone's words, and the only authoritative and responsible warning information would only come from their own governments.
Shen Qi remained silent, he entered the field of nonlinear dynamics, immersed himself in learning, and only wanted to find the two key keys: time and intensity.
Ou Ye became more and more uneasy, and she secretly went to the hospital for a check-up after not having a period for two months.
The results of the examination showed that Ou Ye was not pregnant, and the doctor also pointed out: "Miss Ou, you are very anxious, and this is not good for your health. ”
Anxious enough to scare the big aunt away, a woman's intuition is sometimes inexplicably accurate.
Just an hour after Ouye left the hospital, the International Seismological Center released an update:
"At around 19:03 GMT today, an earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale occurred 127 kilometers west of Kolab Reef in the South Pacific (55 degrees 47 minutes south, 164 degrees 11 minutes west longitude), with an epicenter depth of 38 kilometers. ”
The predicted coordinates given by Shen Qi were 55 degrees south latitude and 167 degrees west longitude.
Located in the heart of the South Pacific Ocean, there is no human settlement within a radius of 2,000 kilometers, with occasional research ships and whaling ships passing by.
Kolabh Reef is a coral reef that is completely unsuitable for human life, and its purpose of existence is to serve as a reference coordinate for scientists and navigators.
Just now, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 on the Richter scale occurred in the sea west of Kolabh Reef, and the coordinates of 55 degrees south latitude were in line with Shen Qi's prediction, with a deviation of 3 degrees in longitude.
The earthquake triggered a devastating earthquake and tsunami, with waves up to 10 meters high and leaving no living creatures in their path.
Fortunately, there were no humans in the area where the tsunami passed, and all the marine life took refuge under the surface.
The international earthquake community has been shaken, and the world has been shocked.
Shen Qi gave two coordinate points in the southern hemisphere near the sea area where earthquakes occurred, one with a magnitude of 5.5 and the other with a magnitude of 7.0.
"This ...... There was an earthquake again......" Even Shen Qi himself was shocked, and even a little worried.
The latitude of the epicenter of the Kolab Reef earthquake is consistent with the data calculated by Shen Qi, and the deviation in longitude is the deviation in the east-west direction.
The remaining two unconfirmed coordinates are located in the Bering Sea in the Northern Hemisphere, one for the United States and Russia.
Shen Qi is most worried about the safety of the lives and property of the residents of Nikolskoye Island in Russia.
One of the coordinate points (55 degrees north latitude, 167 degrees east longitude) is only 50 kilometers from Nikolskoye Island, and given the forecast error, it is possible that the epicenter was on the island.
"It's really hard to believe. ”
Shen Qi spread out the world map and took a pencil to connect the four coordinate points (55 degrees north latitude, 167 degrees east longitude), (55 degrees north latitude, 167 degrees west longitude), (55 degrees south latitude, 167 degrees east longitude), (55 degrees south latitude, 167 degrees west longitude).
The shape of the four points is a square, and it stands to reason that the seismic zone should not be distributed in this way.
It is also possible that humans do not really understand seismic zones and the principles of seismic models.
We have developed our own systematic seismological theory, but we cannot avoid the damage that earthquakes will cause to us.
The next day, Shen Qi saw on the TV news that 22 residents of Nikolskoye Island in Russia were evacuated from the island in an orderly manner under the organization of the Russian government......