In mid-July, Shen Qi returned to Princeton.

At this time, there are still more than three months before the International Congress of Mathematicians in late October.

There are different opinions on which of this year's Filipino Awards will be awarded.

The IMU released the message: "To our distress, although we have decided to award four Fields Medals, it is still difficult for us to make a decision to select the best four among many outstanding mathematicians. ”

"Under the premise of fairness and impartiality, the selection process is being carried out in an intense and orderly manner. ”

"The International Congress of Mathematicians will last for nine days, and on the ninth day of the conference, we will announce the winners of this year's Fields Medal. ”

The above is the official news of the IMU, which can be summarized in two points:

1. Four people won the award;

2 is still being selected.

The most recent concern of the Princeton mathematics department is, of course, the Fields Medal.

More than a dozen mathematicians across the department were invited to attend the Mathematicians' Conference in October, and two of the expected winners, Professor Figari and Shen Qi, both of whom had received the Breakthrough Prize in Mathematics a few months earlier, each received a $1 million prize.

Figari was qualified to give the highest one-hour presentation at the International Congress of Mathematicians, and Shen Qi was 45 minutes.

Professor Faltings, winner of the 1986 Fields Medal, announced a set of research data at the university's mathematics department on Wednesday coffee time: "Considering the evaluation factors such as research results, research directions, age, qualifications, and momentum, I think that Simon Brende of the University of Munich and Joseph Ayoub of the École Normale Supérieure in Paris will almost lock up two Fields Medal places." Mathematically, I get the data that Simon Brende has a 65.76% chance of winning and Joseph Ayub has a 57.35% chance of winning. ”

Professor Faltings stirred up a thousand waves with one stone, and everyone talked about it.

Professor Müller commented: "Simon Brende, he is a genius and I often talked to him when I was teaching in Germany. Greid's winning rate for Brende is 65.76%, which I think is conservative, his winning rate is at least 70% or more, and it is expected that more than 70% of the judges will vote in favor of Simon Brende. ”

Simon Brende was a German mathematician who was a fellow German of Müller and Faltings.

Another German in the café, Marie, is also bullish on Simon Brende: "This Fields Medal is Simon's last, and this award should be given to him. ”

Faltins wrote down a set of data on the blackboard:

[Simon Brende, German, 39 years old, University of Munich, differential geometry, partial differential equations, 1 hour (45 min, 30 min), 65.76%]

"I still insist that Simon Brende has a 65.76 per cent chance of winning and even then, he's the favourite," Faltings said. ”

The guests in this café are all insiders, and everyone knows the rules of the game.

Simon Brende, a German mathematician at the University of Munich, specializes in differential geometry and partial differential equations, and has made outstanding achievements in both fields.

Simon Brende was qualified to give a one-hour presentation at the International Congress of Mathematicians, while he presented a 45-minute and 30-minute presentation at the last and last congresses, respectively.

Simon Brende, who became famous at a young age and became a god at a young age, has survived two Philippine Awards, he is 39 years old this year, and he competed for the Philippine Awards for the last time in his life.

On the whole, the 39-year-old German mathematician has the highest probability of 65.76% to lock in a place for this year's Philippine Prize, which is a reasonable prediction.

Even Shen Qi and Figari admit this fact.

"Simon and I know each other too well because our fields of study are very similar. The Italian mathematician Figari said that he also specializes in differential geometry and partial differential equations.

Shen Qi drank coffee and remained silent, in his opinion, if Simon Brende won this year's Philippine Awards, then his peer Figali could only wait for the next one.

Faltins continues to open on the blackboard:

[Joseph Ayoub, French, 39 years old, Algebraic Geometry, École Supérieure de Paris, 1 hour (45 minutes, 30 minutes), 57.35%]

French mathematician Joseph Ayoub is in a similar situation to Simon Brende, with background and qualifications, 39 years old this year, and last participated in the Philippine Prize competition.

Joseph Ayub's winning rate is 57.35%, which is lower than Simon Brende's 65.76%, and Faltins gives his professional explanation: "If the Ayub conjecture is 100% complete, then Ayyub's winning rate will be adjusted to 100%. Unfortunately, the completion of the 'Ayub conjecture' is around 60%, so I predict his winning rate at 57.35%. ”

"Joseph Ayub is second, no comment. Everyone agreed with Professor Faltins' professional predictions.

Shen Qi said very curiously: "Professor Faltins, according to your mathematical processing methods and probability and statistics system, who is the mathematician with the third highest winning rate this year?"

Faltins wrote on the blackboard:

[Jordy Williamson, Australian, 38, University of Freiburg, Lie Theory and Representation Theory, 1 hour (45 minutes), 48.03%]

The two European mathematicians, who ranked first and second in terms of winning rate, have a high recognition value within the Department of Mathematics of the University.

However, with Williamson, the third-ranked Australian mathematician, divisions arose within the university's mathematics department.

"Greid, I can see that your ranking is based on the age of the candidates, and the closer to the 40-year-old candidates, the higher the winning rate in your prediction system. Director Feverman questioned, saying, "According to this setting, Alessio and Qi, the two of them have no hope this year." ”

Yes, Shen Qi also understood that Professor Faltings's ranking was based on seniority.

Of course, there is a premise for seniority, and the Australian mathematician Williamson has made great contributions to the field of Lie theory and its representation theory, and can be said to be the first contemporary person in this field of research.

"Jordy Williamson was a brilliant mathematician, and I recognize his important contributions to the field of Lie theory and its representation theory, but Greid, I still feel that Jordy Williamson's winning rate is set too high and inflated. Under normal circumstances, the Fields Medal would be awarded to mathematicians in the field of Lie theory and its representation theory, with a probability of no more than 40%. "Peverman, the 1978 Fields Medal winner, combined his own experience and experience to suggest that Professor Faltins lower Jordy Williamson's winning rate.

"I'll be recalculating Jordy Williamson's winning odds tonight, but there's no denying that he's one of the favourites for this year's Fields Medal. "Faltins is the editor-in-chief of the Annals of Mathematics, and he has his own sources of information, as well as a unique method of computational statistics.

Shen Qi habitually pinched his fingers, according to Professor Faltins' professional prediction, this year's Philippine Award is almost set up for 2.5 places, and I may not even be able to reach the 5% winning rate in Professor Faltins' prediction system, right?