955. Two Tech Trees
The book continues above.
Germany is a very industrially developed country, and at the same time, German cars are famous all over the world.
And many people may not know that in fact, automobiles have always been Germany's largest industry and occupy a very important position in the entire German GDP.
Zhou Fangyuan read a document before his rebirth, which recorded that in recent years, that is, the years before his rebirth, the annual car sales in Germany were about 3.5 million. In 2018, total sales in the German new car market reached 3607258 units, an increase of 5% over the previous year. At the same time, the number of registered cars in Germany in 2018 was 47 million and is growing at a rate of around 1.3 to 1.5 percent per year.
According to statistics, the average age of all the more than 47 million vehicles in Germany is 9.6 years, of which 526,000 are more than 30 years old, an increase of 10.8% compared to 2018. It can be seen that Germans pay great attention to the protection of car collections, and classic cars have special car license plates, which can be exempted from emission regulations and will not be forced to be scrapped. In contrast, the average age of cars in China is 3.3 years, which shows that Chinese people still prefer to spend money to buy new cars!
Among all the 47 million cars in Germany, the Volkswagen brand accounts for 10.0886 million vehicles, accounting for 21.1% of the total, and it deserves to be the first national brand! The number of Mercedes-Benz cars in second place is 4.433 million, accounting for only 9.4%. Germans don't like to buy Japanese and Korean cars, and the data shows that this is true, and the most popular Japanese car is Toyota, with 1.3 million units. Somewhat unexpectedly, Korean cars can also occupy a place in Germany, successfully squeezing into the top 10 with a scale of 1,278,600 units.
If you want to say what car the Germans like at the moment, it is undoubtedly Volkswagen in terms of production scale!
There must be many people who think that it is cheaper for Germans to buy luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, not to mention that the taxis they run all over the street are Mercedes-Benz E, but the actual data tells us that the most popular thing for Germans to buy is the compact family car Golf. In 2018, the Golf sold 204,000 units in Germany, followed by the Volkswagen Tiguan with 87,700 units. The best-selling BBA was the Mercedes-Benz C-Class with 64,400 units. The Audi A4 series occupies the 10th place with 50,700 units, while BMW, which is smooth sailing in China, does not seem to mix so well in its hometown, and the highest sales are the BMW 3 Series, ranking 16th.
Of the 3.607 million new cars sold in 2018, 65.5% of the buyers were companies, and only 34.5% of the cars were sold to individual consumers, which shows that the enthusiasm of ordinary people to change cars is obviously low.
Color preference: gray, black and white!
In 2018, the most popular gray and silver colors in the German market reached 30.3%, followed by black 24.8%, and then white 20.6%, which means that other colors only account for 24.3% of the total.
Plus, Germans love SUVs!
In 2018, SUVs accounted for 21.1% of all new cars sold in Germany, followed by compact cars (20.5%) and then small cars (13.5%), with three models accounting for half of the German market.
By the way, Germany's well-developed automotive industry is inseparable from a well-developed road transport network. As early as 1932, Germany built the first highway, the speed limit of this road is 120 km/h, but at that time, even the highest speed of ordinary people can buy the top speed of the car is barely more than 100 km/h, so in fact, it is equivalent to no speed limit! This also laid the foundation of Germany's high-speed culture without speed limit. In fact, there are many highways in Germany that have a maximum speed limit of 130 km/h, but the speed limit is only a third of the total mileage.
Beginning in 1959, West Germany began to expand the highway in earnest, beginning a series of four-year plans to expand the federal railway system to 3,076 kilometers by 1964. Over the next 20 years, the system continued to undergo major expansions, reaching 4,110 km in 1970, 5,258 km in 1973, 6,207 km in 1976, 7,029 km in 1979 and 8,080 km in 1984......
Many of us have the impression that fast equals danger!
However, although the roads in Germany are fast, they are relatively safe. This is very similar to the United States, not because it is safe if it is fast, but because everyone is fast, so the relative speed is relatively close, relatively speaking, it is relatively safe, but it is the kind of situation where you are fast and I am slow, or I am fast and you are slow, which can easily cause a car accident. Of course, these are the road conditions and rules in Germany, which are not the same as in China. When you drive in the country, you still have to obey the traffic rules in the country.
After talking about the current situation, let's look at the future, the current German automobile industry is still dominated by traditional energy, and there is actually a crisis under the glossy surface.
The first point is that it is polluting.
The EU stipulates that automakers must reduce the average carbon emissions per vehicle per kilometer from 118.5 grams to 95 grams by 2021, and plans to further tighten the standard to 75 grams per kilometer by 2030. According to the data given by the statistical agency, the average carbon emission calculated by the German NEDC standard in 2018 is 129.9 g/km, which ranks third from the bottom among the 23 countries in the European Union!
Under the current policy, car manufacturers who do not meet the standards will face a fine of 95 euros per gram per vehicle. And the saddest of these car brands in Europe is probably Germany! Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen are all far from the goal, especially Volkswagen in 2015 had an "emission gate", and the fine has not been paid until 2018, which shows how serious the impact is.
Secondly, the number and production of electric vehicles need to be improved.
Germans are known to like to drive fast, and on their unrestricted highways, 160 km/h is only suitable for driving in the outermost lane, and cruising over 200 km/h is the norm, and this speed is precisely the worst working condition for electric vehicles. On the other hand, their cities are generally small, and most residents live in nearby satellite towns, which have a long daily commute, which is also not conducive to the use of electric vehicles. Of the 3.607 million new cars sold in 2018, only 63,281 were electric, accounting for 1.75% of the total, which is an increase of 75.5% compared to 2017.
Hybrids account for 6.6% of the new car market, with 238,250 hybrids registered in Germany in 2018, including 45,348 plug-in hybrids.
The number one electric model sold was Renault's Zoe, which sold 9,431 units in Germany in 2018. It is a small hatchback with an electric motor of 110 hp and 135 hp and a battery with a capacity of 41 kWh for a range of up to 400 km, starting at 29,990 euros in Germany.
It can be seen that these new energy vehicles are still a niche in the market compared with traditional cars, but for developed countries like Germany, environmental protection is a rigid need and an urgent need to be completed. Invisibly, it has caused huge pressure on all traditional well-known car companies.
However, while the number of new energy vehicles has not been able to increase for a long time, the output of traditional cars is still declining rapidly.
According to a study by the University of Duisburg-Essen at the end of 2018, the German auto industry hit a 22-year record low in 2018, with car production only about 4.7 million units and car exports at about 3.5 million units, down 13%. In 2018, the market share of German cars in all vehicles produced worldwide fell to 5.9%, compared to 11.8% in 1997. As a result, Germany's GDP growth has slowed down significantly, with a growth rate of only 0.6% in 2018, which will undoubtedly have an impact on the entire industry, including the labor market and the development of Germany as a whole.
Over-reliance on the Chinese market is also one of the crises faced by German car companies.
Huaxia is undoubtedly the largest overseas market for German automobiles, German automobiles are one of the earliest joint ventures in Huaxia, Shanghai Volkswagen and FAW Audi in the 80s of the last century during the market change technology period to today's BBA and Skoda, all in the Chinese market to make a lot of money. In 2018, German cars accounted for 24% of the market share in China. In 2018, Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, Audi and Porsche had a market share of 23.8% in China. One-third of the sales of these brand models rely on Huaxia.
However, as mentioned above, China's local automobile companies are now developing rapidly. With the continuous improvement of the comprehensive strength of the car country, the scale of these car companies is gradually expanding, and gradually from the low-end market to the middle and high-end market, domestic brands began to gradually exert efforts to seize the original market share of foreign cars such as Germany.
On the whole, in fact, there are quite a lot of problems faced by German car companies, and they are all very important.
First of all, the consumption power in their own country is insufficient, and the number of classic cars is too large. Secondly, the EU's environmental standards are like a rope sleeve around the neck, constantly locking. Again, new energy vehicles began to challenge the status of traditional automobiles, of course, it is far from enough to form a subversive effect, but in the future of the automobile market, new energy vehicles will inevitably have a place. Finally, it is the counterattack of local brands in developing countries such as Huaxia, which compresses the living space of German cars.
Taken together, in the short term, three or five years, ten years and eight years, there may not be much to see. But what about a few more years?
Fifteen years?
Twenty years?
Placed in the ...... of the German automotive company No, in front of all the old car companies, it is a very serious road.
Major car companies, in fact, for the time being, many people can already see the existence of the crisis, but the ship is difficult to turn around, Germany's automobile industry directly affects the country's economy, want to change, naturally it is difficult.
In the same way, if Zhou Fangyuan is like eating meat, he may have opportunities in other countries, but in Germany, it is also not easy. It is also because of the importance of automobile companies to the German economy, although it is capitalism, but the government will also support and interfere in economic development, and it is not easy for such an important car company, whether it is to acquire or buy shares. Moreover, in a short period of time, several major car companies do not seem to have any obvious big crisis, whether it is a share or a purchase, the price may be very high, Zhou Fangyuan after careful thinking, finally decided to wait and see, if there is a chance, there is no chance, then naturally nothing will be said.
Here, let's talk about an interesting thing.
Another branch of the technology tree, the development of electric vehicles, is also gaining momentum in Germany, and even has a chance to become the birthplace of electric vehicles!
Who would have thought that? But that's just the way it is.
As early as 1820, the Danish physicist Hans Khaestian Oster discovered the relationship between electricity and magnetism. In 1831, Faraday summed up the law of electromagnetic induction, laying the way for the controllable mutual conversion between electrical energy and kinetic energy! After the emergence of electric vehicles may be much earlier than everyone thinks, in 1834, the German Jacobi invented the DC motor, fortunately, he did not use this device on the ground, but to drive the ferry, missed the opportunity to develop electric vehicles first! In the same year, Thomas Davenport in Vermont, USA, built the world's first electrically powered vehicle, which was like a small locomotive, its drive system was extremely rudimentary, and there was not even a decent "electric motor", and the battery capacity was extremely small and basically had no practical value.
In 1881, the world's first machine that could truly be called an "electric car" appeared, and the French electrical engineer and inventor Gustave Truwe introduced the first working electric car, which was exhibited at the 1882 Paris International Electrical Exhibition, which is considered the first electric car. This is earlier than the world's first automobile invented by Carl Benz in 1886!
It should be pointed out that just as there is controversy over the birth of the automobile, there are many different theories about who invented the world's first electric car, and the competition is even fiercer than the invention of the car! At that time, electric vehicles were considered to have a brighter application prospect than gasoline, and the huge noise and black smoke emitted by gasoline cars made people feel very scary, while electric vehicles had no problems in this regard, and the thermal efficiency and power level of gasoline vehicles at that time were not much stronger than electric vehicles, and we can actually say that they are still on a starting line.
Another important mention must be made of the early electric car is the Lohner Porsche electric car designed by the famous German engineer Ferdinand Porsche. The electric car they developed has a maximum power of 5 horsepower, a top speed of 35 km/h, and a range of 78 km. They made a splash by exhibiting the car at the 1900 Paris Exposition and used it as a taxi in Vienna. Porsche also invented the world's first hybrid car, a four-wheel drive four-seater model with a reduced battery count and a rear-wheel motor powered directly by a gasoline engine, which had the biggest drawback of being expensive.
Unfortunately, because of battery technology, electric vehicles are quickly left behind by gasoline vehicles. For example, Porsche's electric car, its lead-acid battery is too heavy, the whole car weighs 4 tons, and it takes a week to fully charge! In 1911, William Burton and Robert Hamfrease of the Standard Oil Company of the United States invented the thermal cracking process, which improved the refining efficiency and purity of gasoline, and as a result, no one cared about electric cars anymore.
Ferdinand Porsche was a decisive influence on the German automobile industry, he developed Germany's first people's car, the "Beetle", which was officially put into production in 1938, and the initial price of this car was 990 Reichsmarks, but it did not accept cash payments. Interested buyers need to first purchase a ticket with a face value of 5 marks and attach it to the "passbook", which is equivalent to a proof of order. Due to the outbreak of World War II, the scheduled vehicles were not delivered on time, and the factory was put into a state of shutdown. Beginning in 1939, the Volkswagen plant switched to the production of munitions, and more than 330,000 orders could not be fulfilled.
At the same time as building the national car, the old Mr. Porsche's electric dream has not been shattered! He developed some electrically powered combat vehicles during the war, including the famous Tiger (P) tank and later Ferdinand, but it was still due to technical reasons, the reliability was too poor, Ferdinand was jokingly called "scrap iron south", with the defeat of Germany in the war, these anachronistic designs were also short-lived. After the war, electric family cars were largely forgotten by the market, and Germany was no exception, and the world became the world of fuel vehicles. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi form a BBA triumvirate, with Porsche dominating the sports car market and Volkswagen continuing to produce civilian models. In addition, there is Opel, which became a subsidiary of General Motors of the United States as early as 1929, focusing on the low-end market. A complete layout of the automobile industry has been formed.
It's a pity that the leading position of electric vehicles in the early stage was not maintained in the end, which can't help but make people sigh.