For the valuation of Doudodo, all parties basically agree.

Whether e-commerce can make money, pioneers such as Amazon and Ahri have already found a successful path, and Zhang Yida does not need to explain too much at all.

Short video is different, this is an emerging industry, and at present, no company whose main business is short video has been successfully listed.

Can you make money? The answer depends on the size of the user and the length of time the user uses it.

To put it simply, it's traffic.

There is traffic, and the road of advertising monetization is very easy to take.

Barely Facebook, the company's main source of revenue is advertising.

Facebook has four major social apps: Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp, and Instagram, with active users ranging from hundreds of millions to more than one billion.

The huge user base and relationship chain form the unbreakable cornerstone of the Facebook empire.

The popularity of Zhonghe Group overseas is too short and its roots are not deep.

Investors are also afraid, this software is suddenly not popular, so won't the investment money be trapped?

And Zhang Yida's appetite is quite large, $20 billion.

With such a large investment, we have to be cautious.

"Mr. Zhang, we have come from afar and are very sincere in investing in Zhonghe Group. I think you should show your sincerity too!"

Looking at Bao Zheyu, Zhang Yida said with a smile: "I am also very sincere, and I have informed Mr. Bao of all the operating data of Zhonghe Group." ”

Bao Zheyu shook his head, "Disclosing these operating data to investors is only the most basic for financing negotiations.

The sincerity I am saying is that Mr. Zhang should look at the company's valuation rationally and give a fair and reasonable price. ”

Zhang Liping also answered: "Yes, the valuation of $20 billion is too high for a company that has not yet made a profit and has not proven its commercial value!"

Dongfang Yu and Ma Dongmin rarely spoke, so the two of them just took a ride and followed a little.

is not the main force, so naturally there is not much motivation to bargain with Zhang Yida.

Blackstone and BlackRock are both top investment institutions, and they both agree on valuations, which should be reasonable.

So the two of them drank tea quietly on the side, watching Zhang Yida and the two major investment institutions give various examples.

Penguin is the largest investor in this round of financing, but Liu Zhiping does not seem to be in a hurry at all.

He silently watched the few people talking, only listened but didn't speak, and the clouds were light and light.

"Good things, naturally expensive. The same goes for companies. ”

Zhang Yida said with a smile: "I know what the two of you are worried about, worried that it will suddenly become unpopular, or that the commercialization is not as expected."

I can tell you very seriously: this stuff is addictive, and the more users play it, the more they like it.

The retention rate is very high, and as long as the user has used it, it is basically impossible to get rid of it.

In addition, the user usage time has also been increasing, from the initial three to five minutes to the current forty or fifty minutes.

It's all thanks to our algorithmic recommendation mechanism, which knows what the user likes and recommends short videos that interest him.

In addition, the user base is very young and all of them are teenagers.

How did Facebook rise? It didn't go from the campus to the whole society.

Zuckerberg's biggest concern right now is this: Facebook is old and young people don't like it.

It is estimated that he has also been a little anxious in the past two years, anxious about whether Facebook will be abandoned when the post-90s and post-00s grow up.

Serab, I'm sure both of you know about this company, right?"

Bao and Zhang nodded, how could the star Internet company not know.

"Do you know what their daily active users are? 158 million.

And what about the market capitalization? It's almost $30 billion. That's almost $200 for a daily active user!

Jiajishi has 245 million daily active users, and according to $200 per user, the valuation should be $49 billion. ”

"No, no, no," Bao interrupted, "Mr. Zhang, I think you may have some misunderstandings.

Snap was founded in 2011 and has been with users for six years.

And what about it? It's only been two years, and countries like South Korea have only been in for a few months.

It took six years for Serab to prove its user retention rate and user stickiness.

In this regard, it is still far away, and no one dares to guarantee whether it will be a flash in the pan?

Also, for the salab, I am personally not too optimistic.

The company is very topical, and the founder is also good at manipulating, throwing out some gimmicks like "sunglasses for photos".

Under the pressure of Facebook's four major products and Twitter, I don't think there is much potential for the development of the serab.

Its advertising monetization ability is also mediocre, and it has lost nearly $900 million in the past two years.

Can a company that only knows how to burn money and play with concepts, but cannot make a profit, become the darling of the capital market for a long time? The answer is no.

Don't look at their current market capitalization of $30 billion, it's hard to say what they'll look like in a year or two. ”

Zhang Liping took over and said, "When it comes to Facebook and Serab, I still have a question that comes to mind.

The infinite expansion of these two companies is bound to have an impact on the business of these two companies.

Whether it is the loss of users or the decline in user usage time, it will attract the attention of both companies.

If Facebook and Serab also launch short video platforms, how will you deal with them?

This question is very level, but it is still difficult for Zhang Yida.

He replied with a smile: "Zuckerberg wants to surround and intercept Serab, has it succeeded?"

Facebook is flawed in terms of product originality, and both Ins and Watsep were bought from someone else.

As for Serab, I don't deny that Spiegel is a very creative person.

However, the salab also has flaws, and the operational capacity needs to be further verified. Half of its users are from North America, with the remaining half in Europe.

What about the rest of the world? Approximately none.

If the two of them want to fight in the field of short videos, I am confident enough to defeat them.

First of all, the first-mover advantage has been achieved, and the global layout has basically been completed, and the rest is just a water mill.

Secondly, Toutiao Video and Douyin are on the same track, but they were defeated by Douyin and went overseas.

Toutiao, this company, don't underestimate them, they have a very good set of algorithm recommendations.

Toutiao, a news aggregation app, is basically a standout in China. ”

"Still, I think it's overvalued. 20 billion US dollars, which is worth 8 fast hands. ”

Since Zhang Liping wanted to pull Kuaishou, Zhang Yida also said: "Kuaishou's daily active users are only one-third of those of domestic Douyin, and if you count overseas, it is even lower, only one-fifth."

If it is more than monthly active users, the gap is also more than 5 times. ”

But Kuaishou has found the right path to commercialization, and I heard that the monthly turnover of Kuaishou's live broadcast has reached 250 million yuan. ”

Zhang Yida nodded, "Live broadcast is indeed a good way, and Shake Vision and sweet potato videos have also been laid out."

But in terms of advertising, Kuaishou is far inferior to us.

After a few months of exploration, Shake's "Black Hole Engine" was also launched, and we set up advertising sales teams or authorized agencies in major cities across the country.

The advertising bonus of Doushi is now very large, and advertisers are lining up to recharge money.

If I hadn't made the sales team stuck at the threshold of cooperation, it is estimated that our monthly advertising turnover would have exceeded 1 billion yuan.

In addition, there is still a lot of room for growth of Doushi, at least to reach 500 million daily active users in China, and then it will enter a period of slow growth.

When the growth dividend has not yet peaked, uncontrolled advertising is like killing chickens and eggs.

As for Kuaishou's $2.5 billion valuation, I believe Mr. Liu has the most right to speak. ”

Zhang Yida looked at Liu Zhiping, who was there with the old god on the side, and motioned for him to say a few words.

"Last month's Kuaishou Series D financing was invested by our Penguin, and the post-investment valuation at that time was $2.5 billion.

As for now, some investment institutions have offered a valuation of $5 billion and want to invest in it. ”

Liu Zhiping's words made Bao and Zhang a little surprised.

The eyes are full of disbelief, is it really fake? The valuation doubled in a month.

"This is true, Kuaishou's C round of investment last year was led by Qiandu. ”

Ma Dongmin glanced at Liu Zhiping and said, "It can only be said that the penguins are too smart." A year ago, we invested in Kuaishou at a $2 billion valuation.

In a full year, the valuation has risen by $500 million. ”

Liu Zhiping heard the resentment in Ma Dongmin's tone, and raised his hand to make a surrender, "Mr. Ma, this is really not bad for us." We just finished investing, and Kuaishou's live broadcast business was started.

And last year, Kuaishou traded sideways for more than half a year when it had 20 million daily active users.

Who knew that after the launch of the live broadcast business, it not only brought hundreds of millions of turnover in a single month, but also drove the growth of users. ”

Zhang Yida looked at Bao and Zhang, "A small Kuaishou is valued at $5 billion, and we are 5 times bigger than them, shouldn't the valuation be $20 billion?"

Bao Zheyu looked at Ma Dongmin for a while, and Liu Zhiping for a while, don't you two play double reed with me, right?

"Mr. Bao, don't believe it, Kuaishou's valuation is not a secret at all as long as you inquire carefully in the investment circle. ”

Bao Zheyu shook his head, "I just think that Penguin and Qiandu are not only shareholders of Kuaishou, but also shareholders of Zhonghe Group, which is a little incomprehensible." ”

Ma Dongmin said with a smile: "What's so incomprehensible? This trick is called "hedging" on Wall Street, and it is called betting on both ends in China.

Of course, investing in Zhonghe Group is our Robin Lee family office, and it has nothing to do with Qiandu Company. ”

Liu Zhiping didn't bother to explain, what happened to Lao Tzu betting on both ends? This is the right of penguins as the poles of the Internet.

As a Chinese, Zhang Liping understands the domestic Internet camp better than Bao Zheyu.

To be honest, there have been too many big dramas in China over the years, from Didi to Magnesium Group, to Zhonghe Group, Kuaishou, it is simply you have me, I have you, a mess, which is dazzling.

If you don't understand the "vertical and horizontal" of traditional Chinese culture, you really can't understand it.

Zhang Liping pondered the language for a while before he slowly spoke: "Kuaishou Live has a monthly revenue of 250 million, and if Doushi can set up a bet with a monthly revenue of 1.25 billion and an annual revenue of 25 billion."

Blackstone could give Shake a $20 billion valuation. ”

"The monthly revenue is 1.25 billion, and the annual revenue should be 15 billion, right? ”

Zhang Liping shook his head and frowned: "Mr. Zhang, 1.25 billion in a single month, it is impossible not to maintain a certain growth rate, right?"

Investment companies must value their growth rate and prospects. A company with a fixed revenue of 1.25 billion yuan per month, what is the use of investment for us?

With a $20 billion valuation, we've already taken a big risk, let alone $25 billion. ”

"It is okay to sign a VAM agreement, but it must be valued accordingly.

If the valuation of US$20 billion is agreed, the revenue VAM will be RMB 15 billion, and if the valuation of USD 25 billion is agreed, the revenue VAM can be set at RMB 20 billion. ”

Dongfang Yu watched Zhang Yida "speak wildly" from the side, and admired this junior brother very much.

Douyin only started commercialization at the end of last year, and now its monthly revenue is only three or four billion yuan.

In this case, daring to bet with others on revenue of one or two billion is really bold!

Liu Zhiping was drinking tea on the side, and he knew that Zhang Yida had started to set up a set again.

None of the investment institutions that bet with him have taken advantage.

Penguins have suffered losses, and Blackshirt Capital, Zhenke Fund, and SoftBank ...... There are a lot of investment institutions that have lost.

Zhang Liping was a little hesitant, he really wanted to choose the gambling plan of 20 billion revenue.

But if you lose, the losses will be heavy.

Bao Zheyu is ready to move, and he doesn't believe that Douyin can increase advertising revenue tenfold in a year.

A rough estimate will show that you want to increase your monthly revenue from three or four billion to an annual revenue of 20 billion.

Must maintain a compound monthly growth rate of more than 20% every month.

That is to say, taking 400 million monthly revenue as an example, it must reach 480 million next month, and 480 million multiplied by 1.2 times next month......

There can't be a fork in the middle, and if it goes wrong, it's over.

It can also grow faster in the first few months, much higher than 20%, and the growth pressure will be less in the next few months.

"We BlackRock bet, give you a $25 billion valuation, and bet 20 billion on annual revenue!"