Chapter 253: The Plaza Agreement

"Hello Mr. Hu, you can call our Sword Pavilion. ”

Sitting opposite Hu Wenhai was a man in his thirties who wore a suit, tie, filigree gold-rimmed glasses, and a big back comb, looking a little like Wan Ziliang.

A square face, thick sword eyebrows, red phoenix eyes, and a pair of ingot-like fortune ears. His outstretched hands are well-jointed and his palms are broad, and his body is strong and he speaks slowly.

This is a man who can make people feel trust and security.

"Please be seated, Mr. Fang. "Hu Wenhai is still wearing a white coat in the laboratory, and today is a rare time to meet with Fang Jiange.

The reason is simple, what he has to do today is to find someone worthy of trust for his huge fortune.

And Fang Jiange is the person he found through his relationship who may be able to meet his requirements.

Fang Jiange, he is a "mainlander", the first batch of students to study abroad after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, majoring in mathematics at MIT.

After graduating, he did not run, but returned to China. However, in '82 years in China, how much better could life be in the mathematics department? Fang Jiange, who was in his twenties, worked as a lecturer at Tsinghua University.

However, in less than half a year, Fang Jiange, who had already seen the world of flowers in the United States, couldn't sit still.

He simply proposed to the school leaders that either I should be suspended without pay, or I would simply leave, and I didn't plan to continue from Tsinghua University.

In the end, the school research decides. He was given a leave of absence without pay. For this matter. There is no shortage of gossip in the school. Watching him cry and come back crying and begging the school to take him in.

So just two years ago, Fang Jiange went south to Shenzhen with 80 US dollars and 200 yuan.

No one knows how he hooked up with a Hong Kong stockbroker and agreed to be an investment agent for him. It is the principal of 80 US dollars, plus 200 yuan of living expenses.

When he returned to the imperial capital during the Spring Festival of 83, he drove a "small potato" back.

The so-called small potatoes are Fiat 126P cars imported from Poland that year. Back then, people who drove this kind of car had at least tens of thousands of net worth. However, among ordinary Chinese. In this era, even 10,000 households are rare.

Back then, Fang Jiange drove his yellow "little potato" back to Tsinghua University, but many colleagues were shocked.

If this experience is written as a novel, it can be called a model of Dick Si's counterattack and inspiration, and I don't know how many people's eyes were red with envy.

However, this also brought him into the sight of many people, and two years have passed, and now no one knows how much money he has. But in Shenzhen, in the imperial capital, there are some legends about him circulating.

Hu Wenhai specified that the state would help him find a reliable financial agent, but there were a few people in China who really understood Western economics in those years, and they had to be reliable and capable. He can look at it.

Looking around, the country found out - to say familiar with the Western market. The most capable person in trade turned out to be Hu Wenhai himself!

And in terms of physique, not to mention a talent comparable to Hu Wenhai, even if there is no candidate who can meet his requirements.

Looking around, I found Fang Jiange's head.

Not to mention, after research, it was found that Fang Jiange could really meet Hu Wenhai's requirements.

And in terms of reliability, he can also be satisfied - at least he has passed the test of the American flower world, and finally returned to China, still not giving up his identity as a Chinese.

You must know that he graduated from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mathematics Department, and it is really not too simple to get a green card after graduation to stay in the United States and do a decent job.

This alone at least shows that he is principled in terms of major rights and wrongs.

And when his materials were handed to Hu Wenhai, it was also this experience that finally moved Hu Wenhai.

And, to be honest, Hu Wenhai even felt that he basically had no room for pickiness. I really searched all over China, and the last one who was screened out was such a single seedling.

But even so, after all, this position is too important, and Hu Wenhai would rather give up the opportunity to make money than settle on the issue of candidates.

"I think you know everything about me. Hu Wenhai saw Fang Jiange nodding slightly, and said calmly: "But I still have to confirm again, what Mr. Fang wants to do is to serve me personally, and Xinke is not a state-owned enterprise in China, although you got this interview opportunity through official channels." ”

"I know that. Fang Jiange was sitting in a precarious position, he had already understood the specific situation of this job, and he had a certain amount of psychological preparation.

The fact is that on the contrary, if this job is still a position in the system, maybe he will not agree. Although when he saw Hu Wenhai and the introduction of Xinke Company, he even wondered if the person who came was a liar.

The person who came confirmed it again and again, and even asked the leaders of Tsinghua University to call him in person and open a letter of introduction that had been inspected by the Public Security Bureau, Fang Jiange only believed three or four points.

In the end, it was he who called a classmate from MIT who worked at Grumman, and only then did he completely believe it when his jaw dropped.

He cleared his throat and threatened, "I remember a writer I liked once said something like this. It is called, the iron rice bowl is not to eat in one place for a lifetime, but to eat everywhere you go for a lifetime. On the contrary, I believe that Mr. Hu's ability to achieve such great achievements in today's China situation ensures that ST is even more reliable than state-owned enterprises. ”

"Haha, I thank Mr. Fang for his trust. Hu Wenhai was noncommittal, turned his head and asked: "Since you already know something about Xinke, then I will not be polite." I would like to ask Mr. Fang, what do you think about the current U.S. and Japanese economies?"

Fang Jiange glanced at him lightly, and when he heard this question, he immediately lowered his gaze and pondered.

"There is something wrong with the current state of the American economy. Many people know this. His deep voice rang out. Although the speed of speech is not fast. But the tone is affirmative: "Deficit finances put a lot of monetary pressure on them, and Americans are looking for directions where they can deflect that pressure." Well, Japan is likely to be a breakthrough for them, but it doesn't have to be Japan. ”

"Oh?" Hu Wenhai laughed with interest: "Tell me your reasons." ”

"The reason is simple, I think the most likely means used by the Americans is to devalue the dollar, not just against the yen, but across the board against the world's major currencies. However, Japan is more in danger here. ”

"Well, keep ......" Hu Wenhai changed his comfortable position. He was pleased with this assertion.

Don't think that when Fang Sword Pavilion utters these arguments, he is some kind of unpredictable prophet who has passed through and is reborn. At present, the context of the world economy is quite clear - in fact, the general trend of economic development is a phenomenon that presents the whole society has always been clear, and the key is that there are not many people who can stand tall enough, and access to information prevents people from making accurate judgments.

When the United States is in financial deficit trouble, it is likely to adopt the method of currency depreciation, which is a very normal argument in the international community.

Just like the choices Americans will make in the face of fiscal crises over the next 30 years, if one round of quantitative easing doesn't work, then another round. When did the robbery of the world feed the financial plutocracy, and when will it be finished.

Take government money to pay Wall Street executives. Obviously not, but Americans know very well that nothing can happen to Wall Street, otherwise Wall Street will be able to drag Americans to their deaths.

And Wall Street is not dead, and the financial chaebols can still change their ways to harvest the international market.

Finance is already the core competitiveness of the United States.

These phenomena were already quite clear signals in the 80s, and they were well known to financial people who knew some of the contemporary history after World War II.

The Americans' method of robbing the world is nothing more than lending money to run deficit finances and then printing dollars to repay their debts.

The world's major currencies have appreciated against the dollar, most notably the Plaza Accord in 1985.

But there has always been a misconception in history that the Plaza Accord of 1985, which caused the Japanese economy to lose three decades, was a "ruse" designed by the Americans specifically to shear the wool of the Japanese.

Actually, that's not the case at all.

The Plaza Accord, the Americans not only want to shear Japanese wool, in fact, it wants to shear the wool of the whole world.

It is not that the Japanese economy is finished because of the signing of the Plaza Agreement, which at best only lit the fuse.

In the final analysis, the currencies of the entire major capitalist countries in the West agreed to appreciate against the United States at the Plaza Agreement, but in the end, only the Japanese played a game of "the great law of the disintegration of the heavenly demons".

Boom –

This splendid and colorful self-detonation.

Why?

Don't blame the Americans for being insidious and cunning, in fact, the Japanese are just stupid.

The Plaza Accord is a five-sided agreement signed by the United States, Japan, Britain, France, and Germany. Among them, Japan, Britain, France, and West Germany all agreed to the appreciation of their national currencies against the dollar, but Japan was the only one who died.

Before the Plaza Accord at that time, it was not that no one realized the significance of the depreciation of the dollar.

Many people also know that the depreciation of the dollar may be unstoppable.

However, the Brownian nature of the market economy means that the promotion of each action may not be able to achieve the desired effect. At present, there is no theory that can accurately guide the impact of policy formulation on the market.

Therefore, the difficulty is not to know what the Americans intend to do, but to know whether the results will develop as expected and to what extent the market will eventually react if they do.

The hammer of the market has not fallen, and no one can know the outcome.

Chapter 254 Layout

This has to do with the national character of the Japanese people and the current political situation. ”

Fang Jiange was slow and cautious, but said calmly: "Let's talk about the political situation first, in the context of the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, the United States must not fall. This is the same not only for the United States, but also for Europe, Japan, and the entire capitalist world, and the Western capitalist world will inevitably maintain the economic superiority of the United States and the world status of the dollar, so it is very possible for the Americans to achieve this round of dollar depreciation. ”

"Oh? yes, from the point of view of the political situation in the world, it is. Hu Wenhai was obviously interested, although Fang Jiange was a student of mathematics. But it's rare to see so wide.

"The depreciation of the dollar is not a problem. This is not the first time. Bigger scenes than this have been played more than once by the Americans. But for the Japanese, this devaluation is dangerous. The most fundamental reason for this-" Fang Jiange shrugged: "Because the Japanese political situation cannot be decided by itself. ”

"And now Japan's economic development has seriously threatened the survival of American companies, so it is like a pig looking for truffles in the forest of Provence. When it digs up a priceless delicacy, it certainly won't be it that ends up enjoying it. ”

Hu Wenhai nodded, Japan's political autonomy is indeed a prerequisite for the Americans to successfully harvest the Japanese economy. But let's not forget that the Japanese economy didn't collapse immediately after the Plaza Accord was signed. Opposite. However, the Japanese economy ushered in a five-year "golden age" from 1985 to 1990.

Akio Morita's "Japan Can Say No" was written against this background.

But of course, this book, written in 1989, was slapped in the face by the crazy collapse of the Japanese economy the following year. Mei's father educated Sony with facts, and the Columbia acquired by Sony changed two Japanese executives in a row, and finally gave up the position of president of Columbia to the Americans, which gained a firm foothold in Hollywood.

Since then, Akio Morita no longer dares to say that Japan can say no, but Sony itself no longer flaunts his Japanese ancestry.

"So, do you think the Japanese economy will be harvested by the Americans?" asked Hu Wenhai tentatively.

"No, no. The world is much more complicated than doing mathematical reasoning. It's not like a proposition that examines the sufficiency and necessary conditions, and then comes up with the result. The truth is often. You think you've considered enough conditions to draw conclusions, only to find that your inductive conditions aren't enough to cover all the factors. ”

Fang Jiange was obviously excited, and his eyebrows fluttered: "The interesting thing is here, Japan is a very schizophrenic country. Its upper echelons are in the hands of the Americans, and they cannot make their own decisions about any major political matter. But on a social level, Japan is a country that is extremely conservative. It is quite difficult for the Americans to increase the export of American products to Japan through currency devaluation. On the contrary, even if the yen appreciates sharply, it is still possible that Japanese products will continue to dominate the US market. ”

"In fact, the Americans simply did not find the crux of their own problems. The problem was that it was to counter the Soviet Union, and the government was running too big a deficit rather than an export recession and a shrinking manufacturing sector. With the current manufacturing costs of the United States, except for a few industries, no matter how much the dollar depreciates, it is not very competitive internationally. The pillar of America's future will certainly not be manufacturing, but finance. ”

Hu Wenhai began to feel a little interesting, and he was able to see so many details, which showed that Fang Jiange was probably not just studying in the United States in the past few years, but also had a deep understanding of American society.

"So, do you think the Americans will be able to successfully harvest Japan?"

"Yes!" Fang Jiange replied categorically.

"But this idea is not working now, and the depreciation of the currency alone to stimulate exports will not work. The Japanese will not eat this set, and the US exports to Japan will not increase because of this. On the contrary, the appreciation of the yen will increase the incentive for Japanese companies to go global. In this way, Americans will face a greater threat to Japanese companies. ”

"Then you think that the United States will not be able to successfully harvest Japan?" Hu Wenhai asked unceremoniously.

"On the contrary, the Japanese will die even worse. ”

"For normal people, if you are robbed, your physical fitness is obviously inferior to that of the other party. Then the best strategy at this time is to try to cooperate with the destruction of wealth and disaster. But if in a robbery with a clear difference in size and the other party holding a murder weapon, he still fiercely resists and does not let the other party succeed, what does Mr. Hu think will happen?"

Hu Wenhai laughed with satisfaction at this time, nodded and said: "I was beaten, in order to be in a hurry, so I simply snatched the entire backpack of the robbed person, and left no one for the victim." ”

"Yes!"

"It's good that the Japanese don't resist, but according to the current popular sentiment in Japan—"

Fang Jiange spread his hands when he said this: "The closed nature of the Japanese market is known all over the world, and American goods cannot stand in Japan at all, so the method of expanding exports to alleviate financial pressure will not work for the Americans." In the end, because the Japanese could not get the expected benefits, the Americans would inevitably manipulate political power and rob Japan financially from the top down. ”

Bang Bang -

Hu Wenhai couldn't help but clap his hands. If the United States wants to engage in currency depreciation, it is an established strategy. A lot of people can see it.

So it is possible to deduce so close to the follow-up means of the Americans against Japan. This already illustrates Fang Sword Pavilion's ability.

From ancient times to the present, the biggest problem of the Japanese is nothing else, it has always been "the life of the young master's body". It's obviously a dog that can't help himself, and he refuses to let his owner pick his hair or die, which makes people very embarrassed.

The heart is higher than the sky, and life is thinner than paper. only wants to die vigorously, but refuses to look down at the reality clearly. This is the root of the tragedy of the Japanese.

In light of the world political situation and Japan's social atmosphere and national character, such an assertion is indeed predictable.

"So, Mr. Fang thinks that the Japanese economy will have a serious bubble in the future, and then the Americans will use financial means to bring about a complete collapse of the Japanese economy?"

"That's pretty much what it means, but it's just my opinion, a possibility. ”

Fang Jiange smiled bitterly and shook his head: "No matter how confident I am, I don't dare to say that this is something that will definitely happen." ”

"I think Mr. Fang's idea is very good, let's just prepare!" Hu Wenhai stood up, his eyes blazing.

"Huh?"

Fang Jiange was stunned for a moment. looked at Hu Wenhai a little bewildered.

"I mean, I think you have a point. Since the Americans took the heads of the Japanese. Then let's go and help the Americans sharpen their axes a little sharper! Are you interested in this feast of the Japanese economy?"

"But this is only a possibility, whether the market can install this kind of hypothetical development, whether the Americans can successfully harvest Japan, this is anyone's guess, this is too risky......

Yes, no matter how bold the speculation, investors never know if they've made the right bet until the market reacts.

There has never been a shortage of brains in the world to predict the future, but there has never been a shortage of hearts that dare to fight the future of venture capital.

And Hu Wenhai is the special one.

He is not only able to predict the future, but also dares to invest in it.

Hu Wenhai waved his hand and said without worry: "I have prepared 1% of IBM shares in the United States, with a market value of about $300 million. You go and help me mortgage this stock, and when I get the money, I will go to Japan. I expect that by October, all major international currencies will appreciate against the dollar, and before that I ask you to prepare two things. ”

Fang Jiange took a deep breath and gritted his teeth tightly.

$300 million!

This is a number that he never dared to think of, but Hu Wenhai put this burden on his shoulders without worry.

It's like throwing a toy at hand.

He nodded heavily, starving the cowardly, supporting the bold! Jun treated me with the courtesy of a countryman, and he will repay me with the courtesy of a countryman! I had long known that this interview would change my life, but Fang Jiange never thought that there would be such a quick and drastic change.

So much so that he even had a feeling that he was Tian Shelang and ascended to Tianzitang at dusk. One moment he was just an inconspicuous retail investor in Hong Kong stocks, but the next moment he was going to participate in the international political and economic struggle.

Such an opportunity is a dream.

Hearing the work that Hu Wenhai had arranged for him, Fang Jiange hurriedly sat upright and focused his attention to the extreme.

"The first thing you need to do is to contact a bank that can provide leverage services for this money and operate transactions on the international currency market for the appreciation of the yen. You don't need me to teach you how to do this, do you?"

"Of course, we can use leverage to enlarge the size of the transaction and borrow dollars to buy yen. As soon as the yen's appreciation begins, I can guarantee that five percentage points will double the input. ”

"Okay, just do it. Hu Wenhai nodded in approval: "In this regard, I will introduce you to an important person from Sony, and you can contact a bank through him." ”

"The second thing, I want you to find a way to promote a big thing. ”

"What's the matter?" Fang Jiange swallowed.

"Sino-Japanese trade is no longer settled in the US dollar, but through the yen. The conditions can be a considerable amount of interest-free loans in yen, for which the Chinese side can designate the purchase of equipment for Japanese shipbuilding enterprises. ”

"This ...... This kind of thing needs the state to come forward, right?" Fang Jiangge wandered.

"Of course. ”

Hu Wenhai was full of confidence and nodded: "Don't worry, I still have this bit of energy." ”

Fang Jiange nodded blankly, the currency that can promote foreign trade settlement, this energy is not too small! )