Chapter 858: The Real Battlefield
The capital in the hands of the giants of the Power Semiconductor Alliance is in the form of M3 currency after being amplified by the market, that is to say, it is an asset amplified by various financial instruments.
For example, although the stocks of Hong Kong stocks in the hands of each company have been sold at a high level, the funds have not been withdrawn completely, but have been injected into various funds, insurance and trusts, and financial companies, and through the operation of these institutions, they can enter the financial market in a relatively unregulated manner by means of credit, investment, financing, and lending, and absorb more idle and free funds.
Through this financial means, in fact, one dollar can be used as two dollars, or even five or ten dollars. In fact, this principle is not difficult to understand, if the giants originally invested one billion US dollars in Hong Kong, exchanged Hong Kong dollars and then invested in the property market. After a few months, if the property market rises and doubles, then each company will nominally have $2 billion in Hong Kong dollars.
Of course not, the Hong Kong dollar corresponding to the $2 billion is just a string of numbers on a commercial bank account, and the HKMA is not right on this account anyway!
There is a problem here that the deposits in commercial bank accounts are controlled by the interest rates announced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
As soon as the HKMA raises interest rates, the cost of raising funds from commercial banks will immediately rise. Shorting foreign exchange does not mean that you can sell the Hong Kong dollar in your hand, so it will become a hammer deal, and the benefits of shorting the economy will not be your share later.
Is shorting the purpose? Of course not, Soros shorted the Southeast Asian economy in '97 just to make a wave of floating wealth? The real big deal is behind the various local resources that have become worthless after the economic collapse.
The best way is to use large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) as collateral, and then lend out the Hong Kong dollar to sell it short, wait until the Hong Kong dollar falls and the exchange rate falls, and then buy back the corresponding Hong Kong dollar to close the account.
After the HKMA's interest rate hike, there was indeed tremendous pressure on this short-selling financial instrument, which eased the volatility of the Hong Kong dollar in the foreign exchange market.
There is never a shortage of opponents in the market, some people are short, and some people are naturally long. Some funds feel that the major giants of the semiconductor alliance are full of energy, but there are also those who are optimistic that the Hong Kong government can counterattack, after all, the Raptors do not suppress the snake!
In this way, as part of the empty orders are eaten by the opponent, the results of the war do not seem to be apparent so quickly.
However, although the interest rate hike is effective for the foreign exchange market, the interest rate hike is absolutely negative for the stock market. This is also the common sense of the capital market, interest rate cuts stimulate the economy, which is good for the capital market, and interest rate hikes will bring capital back to the bank, which is a way to calm the overheating of the economy and reduce inflation.
With the HKMA's interest rate hike order, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks fell in response. The sudden massive sell-off has cut the Hang Seng Index by more than 1,000 points in a very short period of time, and this trend still shows no signs of stopping.
There are only two ways in front of the financial management situation, raising interest rates, the stock market crash, and cutting interest rates, and foreign exchange collapse.
In fact, this is just an illusion on the part of the HKMA, whether it is raising interest rates or cutting interest rates, neither of the stock market nor foreign exchange can escape the fate of collapse.
Immediately after seeing that the rate hikes seemed to be working, the HKMA made several rate hikes in a short period of time. The logic is actually very clear, the stock market crash lost the money of the leeks, and the foreign exchange crash lost the money of the HKMA, that is, the capital of the forces represented by the top management of Hong Kong and Britain.
The continuous interest rate hikes have really made the market realize the determination of the British government in Hong Kong to maintain the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, and the capital to go long has gradually increased.
However, on the other hand, multiple interest rate hikes have also caused Hong Kong stocks to completely lose at 5,000 points, and the entire stock market has plummeted.
At the same time, a number of mainland enterprises, including Fairview Group, jointly announced that due to the huge policy fluctuations in the Xiangjiang stock market, it is obvious that the investment environment has been extremely bad, so they have decided to delist unanimously after research!
These major mainland companies in Hong Kong stocks will repurchase the company's shares from their holders at market prices.
Ran Ni, chairman of Splendid Group, said in private: If you sell it for ten yuan, you can buy it back for one dollar, which is really beautiful!
Delisted companies will then turn to seek listings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and Modu has taken advantage of this to boldly launch plans to build an Asian financial center over the next decade.
After mainland stocks chose to delist, Hong Kong stocks have basically given up resistance, and anyone knows that until this financial turmoil passes, staying away from the stock market is the way to survive.
Of course, there are many people who can't escape. Different from previous stock market crashes, this time it is not only leeks that have died, but also many large local bankers in Xiangjiang.
"The Wong Group has lost at least US$60 million in the tertiary market due to the default of leases on a number of properties......
In the pantry on the eighth floor of the Hongji Building, two real estate economists hid by the window in the corner, although they were holding teacups that could burn people, they felt a suffocating chill from the bottom of their hearts.
"What's the solution?" Hearing the inside information of the other party, the other side sighed and said: "Now the operating rate of office buildings can be 20%, which is already good, and all kinds of financial companies have collapsed in pieces, where is there still money to pay rent? Not to mention the rent of the property, many enterprises because the bank cannot come up with the money to directly go bankrupt and liquidate, and then it will lead to a financial crisis in the affiliated enterprises, and then lead to a sharp depreciation of the collateral, so the bad debt rate of the bank will go to a higher level, which is simply a dead cycle!"
"But, this shouldn't be! How could the market that was so good in the past few months suddenly ......?"
"What's so strange?"
"If the Hong Kong government wants to clean up the semiconductor industry, the Hong Kong economy will inevitably be hollowed out. Finance is also a way out, but local companies alone cannot support the scale of Hong Kong stocks, so it is necessary to attract mainland companies to issue shares. But Xiangjiang Semiconductor is originally a white glove in the mainland, do you still expect to slap someone in the face, and the other side will smile and paste another face for you?"
Not to mention that the eyes of the masses are bright, after this round of cruel financial turmoil, at least the people of Xiangjiang have a clear re-understanding of who they are and how the wealth of Xiangjiang is generated.
From the very beginning, Xiangjiang was born as a white glove for the mainland, can it rely on its own production capacity to create such a large economic scale and be able to support more than 6 million people?
If you want to take refuge in the British, what can Xiangjiang get? Britain itself is difficult to protect itself, and it is even more distant from the ocean, so it is good to feed a few justices of the peace, and what cent of GDP is supplied to Xiangjiang by Britain itself?
Apart from being a white glove for the mainland, Xiangjiang has no other way out. Its prosperity and development is not the wealth accumulated by its own hard work, but an illusion given to it by historical opportunities.
If Xiangjiang breaks away from its own white-glove setting, then the mainland will not mind if it returns to its own historical track.
Just when the two of them were speechless in the pantry, suddenly a figure flashed out of the window beside them.
"Huh?!"
"That'sā"
However, just as the two of them were in a trance, there was a sudden "bang" sound on the street below, followed by a burst of screams from women and panicked shouts from men.
It was only at this time that the two realized what had just happened.
"That's He Junrao on the 18th floor, Mr. He, right?"
Listening to the sound, it seems to be no different from a bag of noodles falling to the ground.
The Hong Kong stock market soon began to spread to the entire economy, with the collapse of the stock market directly leading to the bankruptcy of a large number of companies, followed by the rise in bad debt rates of banks, and the increase in interest rates made it extremely difficult and costly for companies to raise funds. Once the market is depressed, then the industry that could have been isolated from the stock market will inevitably be impacted.
By this time, no one dared to trust the city. Satellite TV's Chinese channel has frequently made remarks, hoping that the Hong Kong government can shoulder its responsibility, isn't it at this time that the HKMA's foreign exchange reserves are used?
Some people have even begun to cite the situation of the exchange rate crisis between the British pound and the mark in 91, if the British government in Hong Kong is beyond its strength, then the British government is obviously capable of intervening in the foreign exchange market, right?
Emmmm...... Of course, in the context of the Xiangjiang stock market, Li Bancheng is said to have sold more than half of the shares of Star Media to a certain fund, and the price is quite favorable.
However, just after the Xiangjiang stock market entered a market that could not fall, the semiconductor alliance finally began to really exert its strength in the foreign exchange market.
What is unexpected is that the real fatal blow of this long-short battle between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar is not on this battlefield.
From beginning to end, in fact, the main battlefield has never been in this small island city.
The British exchange rate crisis in '91 ended with the German Mark, which was funded by Germany to order an aircraft carrier Ulyanovsk in Ukraine, by blocking the Deutsche Mark and then by the Russian North Sea Fleet on Germany's doorstep.
The Deutsche Mark was forced to devalue in '91, and then in '92 Europe restructured the entire Maastricht treaty system. By 1993, similar to the historical 1992, the UK had not solved the problem of the British pound being overvalued under the European Internet Exchange Rate System.
This time, however, the German economy is weaker than it has ever been.
The European currency crisis is not over, but was only overshadowed by the huge nuclear explosion in 1992.
But now, someone has decided to finish the second half of the truce again!