"We Chinese have a saying that the first strike is the strongest, and the second strike suffers. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info”

"If Grumman waits for Boeing to buy McDonnell Douglas, it will be a dead end. Unless other military-industrial groups other than Boeing also merge, it is categorically impossible to compete with Boeing. Whether Grumman can still be called Grumman at that time is something that no one knows. ”

"That'...... What should Grumman do?" asked Wall, cautiously.

McDonnell Douglas is not a secret, and listed companies are required to regularly disclose their annual reports to the public, so Wall also knows something about McDonnell Douglas.

McDonnell Douglas has invested a lot of capital in the development of the MD-11, and its business conditions are deteriorating dramatically.

Boeing spent $5 billion on the development of the B747, and Airbus spent nearly $10 billion on the development of the A330. McDonnell Douglas developed the MD-11, which is not as good as the first two in terms of performance, but the funds are not a lot at all.

Since the MD-11 project was established in 1986, McDonnell Douglas has spent at least $4.5 billion on the project. However, this year, the MD-11 did not obtain the FAA passenger aircraft certification as scheduled, and the aircraft produced could only be used as a cargo plane, which made the MD-11 purchased by American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have to be sold to FedEx at a loss, which greatly damaged the reputation of the MD-11.

According to FedEx's feedback, the MD-11 is not as good as McDonnell Douglas advertises. Aspects such as range, fuel consumption, and APU are not as good as the promotional figures.

McDonnell Douglas has promised to improve these issues, but a number of airlines, including Singapore Airlines, have cancelled orders for MD-11s, which have totaled 20 aircraft.

This was an order for 20 mainline airliners, and McDonnell Douglas caused a sharp fluctuation in its stock price, which fell by 2.3% in less than a month into the 90s, which is equivalent to evaporating 300 million to 400 million US dollars in market value.

Hit by this, McDonnell Douglas, which was already having business problems, did look a little stormy.

In addition to the evaporation of market value, McDonnell Douglas's liquidity has also been nearly depleted. The loss of confidence among investors is an even more serious problem, and the withdrawal of liquidity and stock buybacks can put McDonnell Douglas in trouble overnight.

"You should take advantage of his illness and his life, and don't wait for Boeing to act to compete with this monster. When McDonnell Douglas is not exhausted, it is time to buy McDonnell Douglas as soon as possible. ”

Wall was taken aback by Hu Wenhai's words, his eyes widened, his mouth opened wide, and he said with some stumbling: "Acquisition...... What does Mr. McDonnell Douglas mean is that Grumman should buy McDonnell Douglas?

Hu Wenhai nodded categorically: "Yes, this will be Grumman's only chance to survive." ”

"When McDonnell Douglas is bought by Boeing, Grumman will completely have to stand aside in the military industry. Hu Wenhai sighed: "McDonnell Douglas has an agreement in the U.S. military's new generation fighter program, whether Boeing or McDonnell Douglas wins, the other party can join the supplier sequence of the winning model." Eventually, the U.S. arms bloc will form two blocs, Boeing, and beyond Boeing. Military-industrial complexes other than Boeing can only survive if they huddle together for warmth. McDonnell Douglas should be the most valuable thing about the agreement. ”

"With McDonnell Douglas, Grumman can join the supplier pipeline of the ATF program. If you can't get McDonnell Douglas, Grumman's name may be prefixed with other companies. Maybe it's Northrop, or maybe it's Lockheed, who knows?"

"But, that's McDonnell Douglas, with a market value of at least $15 billion!" Wall shook his head repeatedly: "Grumman doesn't have such a big appetite, and it is impossible to come up with such a large sum of money." ”

Although Grumman made a lot of money on the little blue pill, it was a billion dollars of pure profit every year. After saving money in the past few years, there is only three or four billion more liquidity in hand.

Compared with other military-industrial groups that are also having a bad time, it is much better, but compared with Boeing and McDonnell Douglas, this is still a difficult task to swallow an elephant with a snake.

Hu Wenhai raised his eyebrows: "Cross-shareholding, strong alliance, acquisition does not necessarily have to come up with real money, isn't there a lot of ways?"

Wall smiled wryly: "If it's Boeing, it can be." If Boeing is willing to merge McDonnell Douglas, it will be equivalent to monopolizing the entire civil airliner market in North America, and Boeing will get a very good return on investment prospects, so McDonnell Douglas shareholders will be very happy to hold shares into Boeing. However, if it is replaced by Grumman, the competition between the two sides in the field of naval carrier-based aircraft will not disappear because of the alliance, and it is impossible for the Navy to accept the two attack aircraft platforms. Either the F-14 is rebuilt or the F-18 is rebuilt, and this market will not expand as a result of the merger of the competing parties. Therefore, Grumman's acquisition of McDonnell Douglas can only be an acquisition, and the purpose of merger cannot be achieved through cross-shareholding. ”

Hu Wenhai let out a long breath and was silent for a moment.

It was a little more than he expected.

Historically, Boeing's acquisition of McDonnell Douglas was achieved through partial cross-shareholding. Each McDonnell Douglas share is converted to 0.65 Boeing shares, so that the combined Boeing has a market value of $50 billion in assets and a net debt of only $1 billion. Becoming the world's largest manufacturer of civil and military aircraft at such a small cost has been described as a textbook merger case.

But it is clear that Boeing is the market leader in the first place, so it can achieve its goals in this way.

And Grumman, there is no such qualification.

If Grumman wanted to get McDonnell Douglas, he had to come up with real money. McDonnell Douglas was valued at $13.3 billion when it was acquired by Boeing in 1996. In 1990, if Grumman wanted to buy McDonnell Douglas, he had to prepare at least $15 billion.

This is already an astronomical amount for the dollar in the nineties.

ST Group is overseas and currently has about US$2 billion in liquidity. This money is almost a drop in the bucket for Grumman's acquisition of McDonnell Douglas.

Grumman is more generous than the new technology group, and Hu Wenhai estimates that the other side should have $3 to 4 billion in capital reserves.

The acquisition of McDonnell Dalwellall cannot be just more than half, it will do nothing to improve McDonnell Douglas's current predicament. McDonnell Douglas must be incorporated into the Grumman system in order to revitalize McDonnell Douglas' assets.

In other words, the acquisition capital cannot be $7.5 billion, and $15 billion cannot be less.

Even $15 billion is likely to be insufficient, and a hostile takeover will inevitably lead to the price of the other party's stock sitting on the ground, and it will be too sorry for the market mechanism if it doesn't grow by tens of percentage points.

The project of 6 billion to 20 billion is actually not impossible. Like the acquisition of Vanke by the later Shibao Energy Department, it is typical to swallow the big with the small. The main thing is that with the financing leverage provided by the bank, the hundreds of millions of funds in your hands can leverage more than a dozen or billions of capital.

But then again, Hu Wenhai is not without money. 15 billion, or even 20 billion dollars, does he not have this money? Of course there is, when will the family bank be short of money?

China Railway Construction Investment Bank is not only 20 billion US dollars, but more than 100 billion yuan can always be taken out by gritting their teeth. If McDonnell Douglas can be moved back to China, the country will definitely be able to grit its teeth and exchange this foreign exchange back.

But it's not possible.

It is impossible for the Americans to let money from China help Grumman buy McDonnell Douglas.

In this way, the skin of the Grumman spy really can't be overwhelmed.

can only use the "clean" funds in the international market to buy McDonnell Douglas, which is equivalent to letting Hu Wenhai trap his hands and feet and kill the enemy with the roar of a lion.

It's not impossible, but the technical level is too demanding.

How to use 6 billion yuan of funds to give full play to the effect of 20 billion yuan is a big mountain in front of Hu Wenhai.

"Well, let's trouble Mr. Wall to go back to the United States. ”

Hu Wenhai didn't let Wall wait too long, and said directly: "You can ask a question to the top management of Grumman for me, do they believe in my Hu Wenhai's predictive ability in the financial industry? If you don't believe it, then you can wash your eyes and see if the miracle happens again. ”

Wall's breath immediately became rapid.

Hu Wenhai's financial prediction ability!

Two years ago, some people may not believe in his ability, but after that Black Friday, no one dares not believe Hu Wenhai's financial prediction ability!

Is it going to be done again!

The last time he made a move, there was a stock market crash in the United States.

For the richest man in the world, how much is a "big" vote? Three or five billion dollars, you look down on people. It must start at $10 billion, and it's not surprising that $20 billion.

With Hu Wenhai's practice of being good at creating miracles, it is not unimaginable that 30 billion is not unimaginable. In fact, what is the $30 billion in international events?

Every time there is a turmoil in the international community, the financial order is collapsed and rebuilt, it fluctuates more than tens of billions of dollars.

Two or three billion is a remarkable figure for an individual or company, but for a country and the whole world, it is just a drop of water in the Pacific Ocean.

In the eyes of some people who don't know the inside story, for Hu Wenhai, who can single-handedly set off changes in the world situation, money is really never a problem. If necessary, engage in some conspiracy, create some international incidents, or block the financial systems of several countries.

The money flowed into his pocket.

And this time, how will Hu Wenhai's move stir up the general trend of the world?

The thought that he would be a part of this world-changing event made Wal's heart surge.

As for whether Hu Wenhai's goal will be aimed at the United States again -- it is still the same sentence, if he does not sell weapons to arms dealers who attack his motherland by enemy countries, then he cannot be called an international arms dealer!

Americans with a conscience can't be the middle level of an arms enterprise!

"Okay, Mr. Hu Wenhai!"

Wall behaved like a soldier about to go to battle, and said impassionedly: "I will definitely bring your words to the company's top management, not a word will be missing!"