When Liang Jinsong told Gu Kun the news, his tone was really a little eager and in awe.

The eagerness was because of happiness and fear, and the awe was because Gu Kun's consistent firmness impressed him too much.

It's a pity that Gu Kun's reaction was beyond his expectations.

Gu Kun's tone on the phone was very calm: "The NASDAQ has fallen by more than 700 points? Warren Buffett once said that I am afraid when others are greedy, and I am greedy when others are afraid - when the bubble is the biggest, everyone else is greedy, and I am already afraid. Now that they're scared, there's no need for me to continue to be so anxious to be afraid. ”

"Then do you think you should be greedy now?" Liang Jinsong usually has a very high IQ and great experience, but when he encounters this kind of emergency, the client is so calm, and this contrast makes him a little confused for a while.

Who said that we should be greedy now, I just said that we should not see the wind and rain, and a sharp drop in one day can lead to a complete collapse of Internet stocks?

After all these years of economic growth, Bill doesn't want his deputy to have a good situation when he continues to run for election? ”

This sentence really played a role in reassuring a few things, and even Liang Jinsong was quite rewarding, he pondered for a while, and echoed convincingly: "Maybe it's really possible, let's wait and see for a while." In the short term, there is no need to think about whether to copy or not. ”

Before answering the phone, Gu Kun was eating with several of his women, and after hanging up the phone, he naturally continued to eat and drink, and he didn't take it to heart at all, and his demeanor chased Xie An.

It's a few fewer clogs than Xie An.

The follow-up development was as Gu Kun expected, after the sudden plunge on December 23, the next day's Christmas Eve was a Friday, and the U.S. stock market was still open, and it was temporarily stabilized. Then it survived the Christmas weekend, and although it still fell after the opening again, it was not too drastic, and it was generally mixed with shocks, fake news, and reconsolidation, which looked quite resistant.

This is not easy for a stock market that has fallen by 15% all at once before, and it is not easy to stabilize it temporarily - at the end of 99, the NASDAQ was only four or five thousand points, and the total point was not high, so a drop of 700 points is already a 15% decline.

After the subprime mortgage crisis in 08, the U.S. stock market was restructured, and if the Dow Jones fell 15%, it would be enough to circuit breaker twice.

Obviously, this is the result of the desperate efforts of the Dayang National Pig Stalls authorities to cover the lid, and they want to make a soft landing in every possible way to stabilize market confidence.

And after Gu Kun calmed down, he also slightly reviewed the common sense in his mind.

In his previous life, he did not have a deep understanding of the general trend of the international financial market after the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and only knew a general node.

After all, those financial crises are not very deeply related to his previous life, and there is no pain on the skin.

So he only vaguely remembers that the complete bursting of the Internet bubble in history should have been after Bill stepped down, but the first wave of the crash occurred in March and April 2000.

Now it seems that the bursting of the Internet bubble was brought forward by three months.

This should be a series of funds driven by Gu Kun to see the decline in advance and become rational in advance, causing the capital pool there to pass the peak in advance.

Some people may find it strange: the amount of money Gu Kun invested in the NASDAQ does not seem to be large, and it lasted for a short time, and it did not last until the end. He just pumped out some funds from the network telecom concept stock sector in other global secondary stock markets, how could he affect the NASDAQ?

But this is actually completely reasonable, because the international tour capital itself is a very liquid whole. Historically, before the NASDAQ reached its highest position, many of the funds that were supported in the past were Hong Kong and South Korean capital, especially in the Xiangjiang market and the southern stick financial market.

As a well-known example, Peter Thiel of the Oceanic version of "Alipay" PayPal, in his later famous book "From 0 to 1", ridiculed the madness of the Nan Bang people at that time:

In March 2000, shortly before PayPal went public, a South Bon Venture Capital simply read an article by a Wall Street Journal reporter saying that PayPal should be worth $100 million, and then directly sent a check for $5 million, hoping to take 5% of the shares, and did not even fill in the sender's address to prevent Peter Thiel from returning the money, which was tantamount to forcibly shoehorning.

It can be seen that at the last moment of the peak of the bubble in history, the Korean investors who came late were eager to enter the market - they originally wanted to come earlier, but the last stop of the Southeast Asian financial crisis in history was South Korea, and the Korean capital was delayed for too long in order to defend its country's financial market, and it was impossible to get out of it when they saw new growth points outside.

In fact, intellectually speaking, if those South Korean investors run directly regardless of their own exchange rate, and pursue profits in pure business and business in line with the idea of "money never sleeps", they can indeed run earlier.

But the Koreans in '98 were too patriotic, and at that time, in order to protect the won exchange rate, the government called on the people to sell gold jewelry to the government to increase their gold reserves, and many people responded, so it was non-market factors other than interests that slowed them down.

Now, the money that went late in these Asian markets has been intercepted by Gu Kun, or a few people such as "Yingke Digital", which has fallen in price after Gu Kun's selling, are more valuable and have turned to take over Gu Kun's plate, and the money flowing to the NASDAQ will naturally be less.

Just when Liang Jinsong helped Gu Kun sell the goods in the final stage, according to Liang Jinsong's later inquiry of transaction records and review, it is said that there are billions of dollars of Yingke Digital and other shares, which were taken over by Koreans who were in a hurry and realized it.

Reviewing this, Gu Kun suddenly remembered the possibility of another butterfly effect.

"Eh, historically, I remember Peter Thiel as a lucky thief, and he himself wrote in "From 0 to 1" that his PayPal was a week before the first day of the Nasdaq plummeted by 1,000 points in mid-March 2000, just in time for the Nasdaq IPO at the peak of the bubble.

Therefore, PayPal had a very prosperous life in the cold winter, because it was just fresh financing of $100 million on the eve of the bubble burst, and the cash flow was relatively abundant in the following years. But now that it seems that the NASDAQ's first crash has been nearly three months ahead of schedule, will PayPal still be able to raise money? Will it go out of business?"

(Note: PayPal, also known as the "American version of Alipay", was historically listed on March 10, 2000, with a valuation of $500 million and an additional 20% of new shares at the time of listing, so it was $100 million)

Gu Kun is still more concerned about these butterfly effects.

In fact, there must be many similar examples, Gu Kun only remembers him, just because this person is famous, and the "From 0 to 1" he wrote belongs to any entrepreneur in later generations will read, and it is the most well-known handful of world famous books in the venture capital circle.

Peter Thiel's situation affects not only him and a company, but also a whole class of unlucky peers. Business entrepreneurship is a matter of luck. If you are unlucky and you don't catch up with the wind for a few weeks, even if the entrepreneur himself does a good job and doesn't make any mistakes, the probability of failure is very high.

Therefore, people like Sun Wu and Ma Feng are well versed in this simple truth: "You can't win against yourself, but you can win against the enemy." ”

These are the exact words of Sun Tzu's Art of War. Don't lose, you can get out of the whole body after the fight, this is all that the cattle can do, as for whether to win or not depends on the entire external luck.

No matter how good he is, he can only do what Ma Feng said, "ensure that I can come back alive when I go to the battlefield this time", "even if I don't win this attempt, at least the company will not fail, it can be maintained, and the reserve funds multiplied by the burning rate can survive a cold winter cycle".

So don't look down on Liu Bei's kind of "Liu Runran", no matter how well you do, it's normal that you can't win, maybe it's bad luck, the absolute strength gap is too big, and the "1% inspiration opportunity" is not hot. But to be able to get out of the whole body, this is the real ability, which belongs to "99% effort". It's just that in the face of success, these 99% efforts are far less important than the 1% opportunities for inspiration.

Liu Bei's grandson Ma Feng is the same kind of person.

Gu Kun didn't have any other friends to rely on in the financial world, so he didn't bother the two masters, so he immediately called Liang Jinsong and asked him to check on something.

"Old Liang, you help me check a Silicon Valley company called PayPal and an entrepreneur named Peter Thiel, I want to know their recent situation - mainly whether the IPO plan has been frustrated. If there are other similar examples, you can also help me inquire about them. ”

Liang Jinsong was really a little surprised on the phone: "Why do you care about this? You asked me not to touch the NASDAQ at the beginning." However, who made you the client, I'll help you keep an eye on it. ”

Liang Jinsong is very efficient, and the needs received after Christmas were inquired about before the New Year's Day holiday, and then immediately called Gu Kun back:

"Gu Sheng, you are really a god, these companies happen to be the most difficult batch, I saw that they were originally on the eve of the pre-IPO sprint. Now the Nasdaq is down 20% in a week, and there is a lot of resistance to IPOs.

But that Peter Thiel is very bold, I checked deeply, and he seems to be preparing for a strong man to break his wrist and go public under the fire of the bear market by the end of January next year. However, before the Wall Street Journal crashed a few days ago, there was an article saying that the company has a lot of imagination and a promising business model, and is valued at $500 million. But now Peter Thiel is willing to underwrite with a brokerage firm with a market value of only $200 million, in exchange for an urgent push from the brokerage. ”

When Gu Kun heard this, he couldn't help but feel a little sore.

is a ruthless person, seeing that the general trend is not in the right direction, he is willing to cut two-thirds of the company's valuation within a few days in exchange for a quick listing.

This kind of behavior also has a proper term in the U.S. stock market, which seems to be called "bloody listing".

When a company sees that the general trend is not right, and it may continue to lose blood for several years, it rushes into the secondary market with bandages and band-aids to cover the blood.

"Huh...... Isn't this similar to Huang Yi in history? I remember Ding Sanshi's Huang Yi IPO in June 2000, three months after Peter Tier's PayPal, and the first Nasdaq crash of 20% occurred at the end of March 2000. Even without my butterfly effect, Ding Sanshi would have been going to 'bleed to the market'. I don't know how much more blood will be shed now, it's really providential, the sky is on my side. ”