236 Significant risks and rewards of new technologies
"Even if it is a 45,000-ton press, three years is very tight. A lot of the equipment has to be rebuilt, and some equipment has to be specially developed...... "Chu Guorong said.
How things are, Zheng Yucheng still has to make his own decisions.
The project is 404, and most of the investment is borne by 404, and if Zheng Yucheng forcibly wants to make 65,000 tons, they have no choice.
Zheng Yucheng's face was ugly, he gritted his teeth and didn't speak, just looked at Shen Hong.
His eyes made Shen Hong a little embarrassed, he had indeed deceived Zheng Yucheng before, how difficult the 65,000-ton press was, and how high the technical risk was, he knew better than anyone else.
The country needs this thing, but the government doesn't have the money to invest, or in other words, there are some technical fields that need more money, so after 404 expressed interest, he had a thought.
As the Minister of Industry, who designed and manufactured nine sets of molding equipment for the country, he wanted the country to have such cutting-edge manufacturing capabilities more than anyone else.
Now I have to tell the truth, I can't tell Zheng Yucheng the truth only after the last 45,000-ton press, which is definitely not a good thing.
"Minister Shen, if we manufacture a 45,000-ton press, will we be sure of it? How high is the technical risk? Can we really complete the manufacturing within three years?" Xie Kai made up his mind.
He also became distrustful of Shen Hong.
Before, he and Zheng Yucheng, and even the entire base management committee became a little inflated because of the good situation, and no longer considered the technical difficulty, the industrial base, and the most important thing to consider was the issue of funds.
I always feel that as long as I have money, there is nothing that cannot be smashed with money.
They ignore time, ignore the accumulation of experience in the technology development process, and ignore the overall domestic industrial technology support.
The bass engine has been introduced back in 74 years, and the British transferred the license and technical information for the production of Spey to the Chinese side, providing all assembly and parts drawings, process specifications, as well as various technical specifications and manuals and tooling drawings, and sending experts to provide technical assistance.
However, this does not include the British design experience and manuscripts in the design and development of the bass engine, and the British have even refused to send any engine design experts to China for consultation.
The British made it very clear that they could sell equipment and technology, but they would not sell their "heads", so that it was used in China for ten years, and they did not fully digest the design drawings of this set of engines, and until now, they have not been able to complete the localization.
As a person who has come over, Xie Kai knows that the bass engine has not passed the acceptance of localization engineering technology until 2003.
It took almost thirty years to digest a design, China, which does not have much experience!
The complexity of the big press is not much less than that of the engine.
Now he is worried about whether the country has the ability to make it.
Don't let them put their money into it, design all kinds of projects and wait for the big press, and finally tell them that the big press can't be produced.
"If you only challenge 45,000 tons, the technical difficulty is not particularly large, and there is also a full set of technologies in China, and at the same time, this process is also a demonstration for some technologies of 65,000 tons. The 45,000-ton press built by the American Mesta company for Alcoa in 1955 also adopts a three-beam and four-column structure, but the structure is bulky and rigid, and the beam disturbance reaches 0.6 mm per meter...... We have to improve the design, solve these problems with more advanced structures, and improve the rigidity of the equipment......" Chu Guorong explained to Xie Kai.
"If you don't get a 30,000-ton or 45,000-ton press to verify these improved technologies and directly use them for 65,000-ton presses, once the technology is unreliable, the consequences will be catastrophic. Shen Hong also spoke.
The work of the large press, the largest in China is only 30,000 tons, and the number of production is not much, only one of Southwest Aluminum.
This is Shen Hong personally presided over the design and construction, and he knows better than anyone else about the problems encountered in the production process.
The technology of the fifties and sixties, which is used today, is not backward, but it has a great impact on the service life of large presses.
A large press is designed to have a service life of more than 100 years, and if there is a problem with the structure, it will not only fail to work, but will cause some serious consequences.
"Do we have American technology here?" Xie Kai asked with a frown.
"No, but our people have visited their factory, and you should know that the structure of the equipment can be easily seen...... Everyone knows the principle of the large press, but how to achieve it and increase the working pressure of tens of thousands of tons puts forward harsh and strict requirements for the design experience and construction foundation!"
Many key equipment abroad are basically not even allowed to be seen by Chinese.
"In Alcoa, we found that the huge elastic deformation and structural deflection of their 45,000-ton heavy-duty casting beam have a very serious impact on the forging accuracy, and the service life is very short, the upper and lower beams have to be scrapped every 50,000 times, and the columns and hydraulic cylinders can only be scrapped after 20,000 uses...... In order to solve these problems, the 75,000-ton press of the Soviet Union adopts a non-prestressed structure and uses bolts to fix multiple layers of ultra-thick steel plates to form an integral frame, so as to solve the defects such as bubbles and coarse metallographic structure generated in the production process of heavy castings......"
Shen Hong's series of professional technical terms made Zheng Yucheng even more enlightened.
Even Xie Kai was only barely able to understand this.
"Do we adopt this design technique of the Soviet Union? Without reference, can we successfully replicate it?" Xie Kai was most worried about this.
The 75,000-ton press of the Soviet Union is absolutely impossible for people from other countries to see.
China's professional and technical personnel have no hope of seeing it.
"No, we all have our own special designs. Abandoning the Soviet design of non-prestressed structures, the technology is not clear to us. Huaqing University has been researching steel wire winding prestressed chimeric structures for many years,......" Shen Hong said to Xie Kai.
Xie Kai can understand his professional introduction, which makes him very happy.
When he introduced, he also stared at Xie Kai's expression, which didn't seem like he didn't know how to pretend to understand.
"This technique has been developed?" Xie Kai became a little surprised.
The core technology of the domestic 80,000-ton large press is this.
Didn't you say that it was only studied in the nineties?
If this technology is developed, their large presses will be much higher than the same type in terms of forging accuracy and production efficiency.
That's really new technology.
"At present, only theoretical research, although model tests have also been successful, only the production of products, can finally verify the reliability of the technology. Shen Hong looked at Xie Kai and said solemnly.
The subtext is clear that this technique, they also cannot guarantee.
With new technology, the risk is definitely much higher.
"I wondered if I could really get this thing out in three years. "Zheng Yucheng was hit very hard this time.
Originally, it was expected that with a 65,000-ton press, more advanced projects could be carried out.
"Yes!" Shen Hong gritted his teeth and said, "This is a comprehensive assessment we make based on the current existing foundation, and at the same time, it is also the fastest time that can be manufactured." ”
"How risky is it? What are the chances of success? If this technology fails, what is the backup plan?" Xie Kai knows better than Zheng Yucheng that he doesn't care when it can be manufactured, but more concerned about how reliable the technology is.
"Do you know a lot about the big press?" Xie Kai asked a question about the degree of professionalism that Shen Hong and Chu Guorong did not expect.
"I know the principle, but the specific technical details are not clear. Xie Kai said. "We have a full set of specific technical information on the national dismount project......"
To avoid arousing suspicion, he explained.
In this way, the surprise in the eyes of the two was even worse.
"At Huaqing University, we conducted multiple finite element analyses through supercomputers, manufactured a 4,500-ton all-metal model at a scale of 1:10, and tested the strength and stiffness of frames, beams and other structural parts and important parts under various load conditions, and compared them with the finite element analysis results of the supercomputer, and finally determined the ...... of the main structure," Chu Guorong introduced.
"Finite element analysis is now being used in China?" Xie Kai had never had the opportunity to come into contact with these things before.
When China began to adopt cutting-edge technology, it is confidential.
Huaqing University uses finite element analysis on their large press project, which makes the structure much more reliable.
"I've been using it all the time, but in the past, supercomputers didn't perform well and the calculations were slow. Shen Hong said, "The domestic aerospace field has always been used, otherwise our research and development costs will not be much lower than those abroad." Even the Yun-10 team uses finite element analysis to know the safe flight time of their aircraft......"
Shen Hong's words made Xie Kai understand that the basic conditions in China were not as good as they imagined, and at the same time, they were not as bad as they imagined.
There are only a few ways to solve problems, which are used abroad, and there is no shortage at home.
"In this way, the possibility of success is still very high?" Zheng Yucheng couldn't understand, but he could judge what they meant.
"With a large casting structure, we can guarantee 100% success. However, the processing accuracy is poor, and in the end it will not be able to attack the 65,000-ton press, which is a traditional technology used in the 65,000-ton press, and the service life will not exceed ten years...... At the same time, poor accuracy has little effect, and maintenance costs will be very high......" Shen Hong patiently explained.
In order to launch an impact on the 65,000-ton press, it is necessary to adopt a new technical design.
How to choose, it depends on Zheng Yucheng and Xie Kai.
They want to use the traditional structure to build a 45,000-ton press, and then build a 65,000-ton press in the future, and the difficulty will not be reduced.