Gu Kun didn't know much about investment originally, he just made a judgment based on the foresight of the reborn.

But since it was nonsense at a drinking party, there were always some far-fetched reasons, so I analyzed it with a smile.

This was originally just casual talk, and I didn't expect to convince anyone at all. is like those stock commentators who talk and laugh, if he really has the ability to make a lot of money, he will make it directly, and what kind of show will he do.

It's a pity that at such a sensitive juncture, his excuse was misinterpreted by many wealthy businessmen in the entertainment industry and the fashion and luxury industries present.

When he has anything to do with the high-level officials in the mainland, he can find out the inside information.

"Gu Sheng, this kind of thing, let's just talk about it in the circle, is there any action that the authorities are going to do about the land supply plan in this city?"

"Don't worry, the direction of the property market is not the stock market and futures foreign exchange, knowing the policy is not insider trading, everyone will only accept your feelings, there will be no legal risks. ”

Some of them are more knowledgeable, and they are afraid that Gu Kun is worried about legal risks, so they suddenly kept silent, so they persuaded them.

Insider trading is a crime that exists in any country, but whether it is strictly enforced depends on your ability. If you really want to be strictly business-oriented, none of those people on Wall Street can escape, and they should all go to jail.

But no matter how strict the insider trading is detected, only the financial markets such as the stock market will be found. Real estate is not a financial market at all, and knowing the gossip in advance and making a profit from it is also legal in any country.

Those developers, which of them have not planned the subway, have already raised the property price in advance in accordance with the publicity caliber of the subway, which is the same all over the world.

"So, it seems that you can pretend to be a tiger and pretend that I am 'someone above'? Gu Kun's mind was racing, and he quickly pondered this truth.

In fact, he could have been regarded as "someone above", and in the past two years, he has been an old friend of the Chinese people, so he can be regarded as having a friendship.

It's just that since you are engaged in the fashion, cultural and luxury industry, the biggest assets are the intangible assets of brand and confidence, so there is always too much imagination space in the background.

The deeper your background is guessed, the easier it will be to do business in this field, and the higher the level of service you will provide.

Then go with the flow.

Anyway, there is no suspicion of insider trading in this matter, and it belongs to the blank area of the law.

So Gu Kun simply let go of the bragging: "Of course, my words have a basis, and it's not good to say too much." But it's more based on my own research. I think that in the next few years, the land supply in this port will be too much, and there will definitely be 50,000 units per year, which will be at least ten times faster than the land supply in the era of colonization.

If you think about it, the city has a population of only five or six million, and more than 50,000 low-cost houses are added every year, which can meet the needs of at least 200,000 people, and the demand can be filled quickly. So until housing prices fall back to the normal range, I won't invest heavily in the property market, not because I don't have money, but because I don't want to insult my IQ. ”

"Fart! Gu Kun, you are disturbing market confidence!" President Xu and Yuan Tianshi of Hutchison were angry, Yuan Tianshi wanted to pretend to be a yin person, and he was embarrassed to say it, President Xu scolded him directly.

Gu Kun smiled kindly: "Yes, I'm farting, then don't believe it, don't be in a hurry to sell the plate, Mr. Xu, I have the confidence that I won't do the thing of reducing the price and shipping in the next three years, and I will keep covering it." ”

Gu Kun's words really instigated a few people who did not have a firm position.

After all, he is not talking in the vernacular, but has made a practical action of "I'd rather buy a car for 4 million Hong Kong dollars than lazy to buy a house of more than 1 million Hong Kong dollars". Anyway, it's a multimillion-dollar bet to buy your own opinion.

Boss Yang of Buwang Records saw that this scene was stiff, and hurriedly came out to persuade: "It is normal to have different opinions on the expectations of the market, and there is nothing to convince." It is not appropriate to talk about it after drinking today, and when the time comes, you will know, so why rush to distinguish between right and wrong in such an obvious matter. ”

Liang Jinsong also hurriedly played a round: "Indeed, the new deal's plan for land transfer should come out soon, don't hurt the peace."

Gu Sheng, why don't we go over there and talk and see if you have anything to entrust us. At Blackstone Funds, we are committed to client confidentiality. ”

Gu Kun also took advantage of the situation to go down the stairs, and he didn't have the same knowledge as those people.

Wait and see.

He was originally here to mix up some people today, and since he found a fund manager who could talk to him and help him act as an agent for some follow-up investment operations, he couldn't wait to talk about business directly.

President Xu watched Gu Kun leave, thinking that he had won, and did not forget to complain a few words openly to Gu Kun's back.

......

"Gu Sheng, our Blackstone Fund is involved in the general circulating stock market, private non-circulating equity trading, and foreign exchange futures, I don't know which aspect you are more enthusiastic about. Liang Jinsong held the wine glass and led Gu Kun into a small study and chatted privately.

Gu Kun: "I'm more interested in foreign exchange futures. I think there will be volatility in the foreign exchange market with the return of the port. Not only the Hong Kong dollar, but also the expectations of other surrounding economies will also be affected to a certain extent. ”

Liang Jinsong: "Oh, then I don't know what combinations you want to make?"

Gu Kun pretended to think deeply for a while: "My understanding of the economic situation of Southeast Asian countries is also different. After all, I was born in Lanfang, and I am most familiar with Malaysia, followed by Lijiapo, Thailand, and then Indonesia also knows something.

I think that with the return of Xiangjiang, the international community's estimation of the share of Southeast Asia as a whole to undertake the industrial transfer of economic globalization should be adjusted. The more involved the country is, the more it should take a correction in expectations. ”

Liang Jinsong searched his common sense, took a sip of Lafite, and asked tentatively: "As far as I know, Malaysia should be the country that has undertaken the most processing and entrepot trade among the surrounding countries——

Lijiapo sits on the best entrepot trade port in Southeast Asia, and since 91, it has brought a further strong share of international transshipment. Relying on Lijiapo, the Malay Peninsula has made a large number of low-tech labor-intensive assembly industry layouts.

According to your estimate, do you want to short the ringgit? However, the ringgit seems to be the currency in circulation of the Lan side, but if you look at the declining ringgit, there is no need to go to the Hong Kong Exchange to sweep the goods. ”

Those who do not understand the structure of Southeast Asia's economy before the crisis of the 90s may find it difficult to understand the current situation at that time.

Since the disintegration of Lucia in 91, because of the strength of the Oceanic countries, in fact, the process of economic globalization has been greatly promoted.

At that time, China had not yet joined the WTO, so although China's foreign trade was also very developed, the whole 90s were popular with "inter-industry division of labor" type of foreign trade, such as some products Huaxia had a particularly low cost and advantages, so they were crazy to export. The so-called "tens of millions of shirts for an airplane" is the extensive form of this era.

As for the "division of labor within the industrial chain", Huaxia at that time could not squeeze into it at all.

The countries of Malaysia and Thailand in Southeast Asia, taking advantage of Lijiapo's entrepot port, have undertaken a large number of processing of incoming materials in the industrial chain with low scientific and technological content. In 96, the average monthly salary per capita exceeded RM1,000, relying on this, and people were already close to the threshold of developed countries at that time.

In addition, the transfer of these industrial chains has also brought a large number of floating populations from developed investment countries, which has driven the tourism trade of Malaysia and Thailand. This expectation of sustainable growth in the future has combined to lead to an inflated exchange rate for the Thai baht and the ringgit, and even the Indonesian rupiah is slightly overvalued.

After July 97, although China still did not join the WTO, the WTO had to wait for four years in history. However, because of the return of Xiangjiang, many international evaluation agencies believe that when Xiangjiang, an entrepot free trade port, is completely controlled by the mainland, it will be helpful for the mainland to snatch the "share of the processing industry within the industrial chain" of Malaysia and Thailand, so it is necessary to lower and look down on the economic pull effect of the processing industry in the industrial chain of Malaysia and Thailand.

In good conscience, although Soros is despicable and shameless, his vision is still accurate, flies do not bite eggs, and the sustainability of Mattei's development was indeed overestimated before, which led to the collapse of confidence later.

Liang Jinsong, as the president of the Asia-Pacific region of Blackstone Investment Fund, has to say that the basic skills are still very solid, and he knows the fundamentals and situation of the current economies of various countries, so he feels that Gu Kun's thoughts and his behavior are slightly inconsistent.

"It seems that it is not easy to fool this guy. Lao Tzu wants to sell short positions in advance and supplement the ringgit positions, all because he knows the conclusion in advance, but there is no way to explain this...... Forget it, or force an excuse. ”

Gu Kun secretly thought in his heart.

Although he can directly act as a principal, he can forcibly issue orders on investment operations. But he doesn't want to be discovered about his prescience, nor does he want to be mistaken for being in collusion with Soros in the future.

Therefore, if you can seem to rely on your ability, you should try to act like a little bit.

Gu Kun pondered the excuse in his heart for a while: "I think your suggestion is not precise enough, from the perspective of the strength and potential of the processing entrepot trade in the industry, Malaysia is indeed more overestimated than Thailand." But Thailand's bubble is bigger in terms of tourism –

My Lane side is going to make big moves in the next few years, and I am sure that I will snatch a share of the high-end tourism market share from all other Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, the more serious a country's economy and exchange rate are dependent on tourism, the harder the medium and long-term will be hit by the rise of the blue side. Based on this judgment, I decided to focus on making the air line baht. ”

Gu Kun said so, and Liang Jinsong suddenly had nothing to say.

Thailand's dependence on tourism is indeed much higher than that of Malaya.

Looking at the tour groups in China in later generations, there are as many groups as dogs in Thailand, and tens of millions of people flock to it every year. Although there are also more Malay groups, at least half of them are less than those in Thailand.

Don't you allow people to have confidence in themselves? If the client is so arrogant that he thinks he can influence the rise and fall of the tourism market in Southeast Asian countries, then he will do it.

"Tell us about the mode of operation you want, and we can help you with the details. Liang Jinsong didn't bother to persuade again.

Anyway, as long as the overall investment policy is decided by the client himself, and the trustee fund does not make mistakes in the operation details, then even if it loses money in the end, the trustee fund has no responsibility.

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