Chapter 791: Luring the Wolf into the House
Boris's appearance is equivalent to giving Hu Wenhai a hint.
He doesn't know much about finance himself, but he has an impression of some big events. If it weren't for such a reminder from the British, and keywords such as "quantum fund" and "Soros" appeared, I am afraid that even if it really happened on the day it happened, he might not have been able to turn over the matter of the pound crisis in his mind.
After all, compared with the Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, the pound crisis occurred in 1992, which is often easily covered up by the background of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and is easy to be subconsciously ignored by a Chinese.
How do you say that? Oh, I guess you won't die if you don't die, right?
Of course, the British are British, and Hu Wenhai has not yet been noble enough to be anxious for the British. It is true that the CIA's actions were reported by the British side, but from the perspective of SIS, at most, they felt that after the Soviet Union played eggs, Hu Wenhai's presence was too much of an eyesore, and he was targeted by the CIA.
To say that Soros is playing the pound and attacking Hu Wenhai in order to clear the obstacles, this is also too magical reality.
As far as the British are concerned, as an old imperialist, a hardcore ally of the United States, one of the five hooligans of the United Nations. No matter what, they couldn't believe that any IMF would dare to come and brush the paper tigers and tigers of the British Empire!
Is imperialism really a paper tiger?!
After wrestling with Robert and Boris for a while, Hu Wenhai sent the two away with a haha. As for the fact that the large purchase of the mark has led to the instability of the European exchange rate, of course, it is impossible to make a commitment immediately.
After asking Chen Fa to send the two out of the hotel, Hu Wenhai made a phone call, and the overall changes in the financial situation in Europe in the recent period of time were summarized.
Tens of billions of dollars in marks were a drop in the bucket compared to East German technology and equipment. Relative to the size of the economies of China and the United States, it is not a big deal. Even in the international financial market, in fact, it can't make too many waves.
However, in some critical historical periods, it was the straw that broke the camel's back. The merger of the two Germanys was admittedly the fact that West Germany took advantage of it. Not only did it acquire a number of high-quality assets at a low price, but it also eliminated a large group of competitors.
However, in terms of the country's financial situation, the exchange of all East German currency for West German marks was unique in the history of the world. For Germany's national financial economy, it is undoubtedly a taut string.
This was not only the economic plundering of East Germany by West Germany, but also a feast for the financially developed countries of Western Europe.
The purchasing power of the mark increased greatly, and hot money from various countries began to flow rapidly into Germany, which in turn formed a huge potential energy for the appreciation of the mark for a period of time. Originally, this process was supposed to continue until about 1992, before it became a problem that Britain and Germany could not solve.
However, with Hu Wenhai joining, the tens of billions of dollars exchanged for Deutsche Mark immediately pushed the process to the edge of the precipice of the problem. The drastic changes not only made Soros aim at opportunities, but also made the old men in the City of London aware of the risks.
Although the frogs in the warm boiled frog experiment will jump out when they feel uncomfortable, the experiment will always hold back when it is replaced by an adult.
On the other hand, if the water is heated to a boiling state very quickly, people will immediately realize that there is a problem even if the water is boiling.
With the summary of information one by one, Hu Wenhai accurately grasped the stage of development.
According to the agreement of the European monetary system, the British and German currencies adopt a policy of joint floating. In the Maastricht Treaty, the exchange rate between the two countries is guaranteed to fluctuate by 2.25 per cent on the basis of the central exchange rate.
Once this range is exceeded, Britain and Germany will need to use their foreign exchange reserves to intervene in exchange rate movements.
By October, the exchange rate of the pound and the mark had fallen to around 1 to 2.80. According to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, the exchange rate of the pound against the mark must not be lower than 2.778.
Even before the problems in the Soviet Union in September, the British side was already coordinating the German central bank to reduce interest rates, which were the most likely to lead to currency depreciation.
Under the pressure of a possible coup d'Γ©tat in the Soviet Union, Germany did consider the situation and promised Britain a lower interest rate.
After all, if August 19 succeeds, European security will definitely tighten after the Soviet Union's left turn, and Germany will naturally have to hug the thighs of the British. But without the unbreakable repression of the alliance, does Germany need to consider the idea of a big rogue with nuclear weapons to be hosted?
What happened next is now known to the whole world. The development of the August 19 incident took a sharp turn, and the Soviet Union, the boss, not only failed to save itself, but fell apart overnight. The collapse of the Soviet Union allowed the Germans to completely free themselves.
After the August 19 incident, Germany announced two consecutive interest rate hikes in just half a month - the reconstruction of East Germany requires a lot of capital, and it is predictably profitable, and the attraction of international hot money is unparalleled.
It is only natural that the Bundesbank want to raise interest rates to attract investment. However, for the British, this is undoubtedly a betrayal of the red pot.
After the Bundesbank announced an interest rate hike, the pound and the mark quickly fell below 2.85 and slipped towards the abyss of 2.80.
Cornered on the financial streets of London, it had to look for all the allies and ammunition that could come in handy. As the largest private owner of Mark, Hu Wenhai quickly entered the eyes of the Financial City and Downing Street.
Now the British have two paths in front of them, one is to announce the decoupling of the pound from the mark. The advantage is that the pound can be depreciated and that it does not have to be kidnapped into the carriage of the European exchange rate system. Currency depreciation is good for the export economy and can also solve part of the employment problem.
However, the consequences of the depreciation of the pound are also serious, which means that Britain is far away from the European political system, and it is more difficult to export to Europe, and the United Kingdom is likely to be marginalized in the process of European integration in the future......
These risks are unacceptable to British politicians in any way.
So in fact, for the Germans, there is a reason to kick the British out of the future EU system. The more marginalized the British are, the less they will be able to play their role as a Γ and the healthier the EU system will be......
The pound sterling should be pegged to the United Exchange Rate, depending on whether the British intend to settle economic or political accounts.
Apparently, now the British feel that they can "salvage" again. Not only can you calculate the political account, but you don't want to lose too much in the economic account. So although the water in the pot is about to boil, the "frog" probably thinks that it is still very stable and can make another wave.
"Mr. Hu, what are we going to do now?"
After sending off the two Englishmen, Chen Fa disappeared for a while before turning back.
"We don't have many comrades left on the East German side, and if we withdraw money now, it shouldn't be a big problem. β
"Don't worry, I think the appreciation of the mark is a foregone conclusion. Whether we enter or not, it's always a good idea to collect some ammo first. You ask Fang Jiange to rush over immediately, and do your best to buy the mark with all our funds in Europe. β
"It's not ...... with the British"
Chen Fa looked confused, and said inexplicably: "We have a good relationship with the British, and there is a lot of business cooperation. Isn't it a bit of a mistake to continue to increase the acquisition of Mark at this time?"
Comrade Chen Fa, you probably have some misunderstanding about Britain. β
Hu Wenhai shook his head slightly, and suddenly read aloud with emotion.
"The readers of the Mirror are people who think they are running the country. β
"The Guardian's readers are people who think they should run the country. β
"The readers of the Times are running the country. β
"The readers of the Financial Times, on the other hand, are in real hands on the country. β
"Readers of The Sun, they don't care who governs the country, as long as she is convex and backward!"
"You know, I'm talking about which country, right?"
Chen Fa coughed and nodded: "Actually, it's the minister's drama, and we organized an internal viewing of the ...... back then."
"So you see, the interests of the City of London and Downing Street are not exactly aligned. Hu Wenhai raised his eyebrows and said with a smile: "The depreciation of the pound is good for the British economy." What's more, whether the pound can be saved or not, don't the old men in the financial city themselves know? In this world, it is not Soros or us who have the most pounds in their hands, but the bankers in the financial city. β
"Downing Street, for the sake of political power, now has to resist the pressure on the exchange rate of the pound and the mark. But the bankers who really controlled Britain had no intention of giving the pound a burial. Or is it better to put it this way, anyway, they are going to be robbed, instead of cheapening the Quantum Fund and Soros, why can't they be cheaper than the capital of the United Kingdom?"
"This!"
Chen Fa was stunned, as a native Chinese, she really didn't think that there would be such an operation!
Of course, in China, such a thing is really unimaginable. If during the Asian financial crisis in 97, the commercial banks or the CCB and other banking groups stood up, not to resist the attack of quantum funds and international funds, but to say that it is better to give me cheaper outsiders......
You've never seen a dictatorship with an iron fist, have you?
Under the system of state management of capital, this is indeed a magical reality beyond the limits of the imagination of the Chinese.
But what about the historic 1992 sterling crisis?
Soros's Quantum Fund is only $7 billion at its fullest, so can't the Bank of England come up with $7 billion? Obviously, this is impossible. And in order to suppress the value of the pound, Soros needs to sell a large amount of pounds, where does his ammunition come from?
Historically, a Spring and Autumn brushwork has been used, saying that it is the Quantum Fund that drives international funds. Then "unite as one" and beat the pound without a fightback.
Soros in 1992 has not yet had a blockbuster record, so why can he let international travel funds gnaw hard bones with him?
In fact, people with a little knowledge of international finance know that international travel capital can only be icing on the cake, not charcoal. Soros wants to leverage the pound market, and there is no such possibility with international travel alone. And few people know that Soros began to hold a large number of shares in British companies while selling a large amount of pounds short.
Soros wants to leverage the pound exchange rate with less than 7 billion ammunition, and it is impossible without financial leverage. And the only bank that can provide him with enough ammunition, looking at the world, is also the only British bank, British industry and commerce have this reserve. The pound is not the dollar, and if you have to collect enough pounds in the international exchange rate market, how can it not be discovered by the Bank of England?
Historically, Soros has used a 20:3 leverage in his attacks on the Italian lira. With a leverage of $1.5 billion, he leveraged the $10 billion lira and kicked the Italian government out of the game immediately. Removing the lira's 1.5 billion, Soros is left with at least $6 billion. With such a large leverage, $6 billion leverages at least $40 billion in pounds.
Which country in the world can come up with $40 billion worth of sterling reserves for Soros to attack the UK?
British capital has actually been "bitter for a long time" with the European exchange rate mechanism, and with the merger of the two Germanys, British capital has been absorbed by Germany in large quantities. As a result, the UK's domestic economy has experienced a significant decline since 1990.
Against this backdrop, the British economics and business community has generally begun to question the exchange rate of the British pound. Britain's behavior of slapping a swollen face and becoming fat has already suffered enough on the joint exchange rate. Prior to this incident, business leaders in the City of London had written to Prime Minister John Major in the hope that the exchange rate could be reduced to the level of 2.6, and at the same time, he hoped that the Bank of England would adjust the exchange rate by three percentage points, from 10% to 7%.
But for political reasons, Downing Street did not accept this request.
Okay, you Downing Street probably really thinks you can be this home.
When Hu Wenhai broke and crumpled the information he sorted out, and told Chen Fa to listen. One can imagine what kind of complicated feelings Chen Fa will have in his heart.
"No matter how much your own people have opinions, you can't lure wolves into the room!"
"Why can't it work? You said it yourself, there are many such things, and they can form idioms!"
Hu Wenhai pursed his lips and snorted: "Luring the wolf into the house, there are fewer similar things in history? Not to mention the UK, there will be nothing new under the sun." β
"Okay, let's not talk about the superfluous. β
Hu Wenhai pointed to a summary he had just written, and said: "I have already written out how this matter might develop. As for whether to rob Britain ahead of schedule or to crack down on international financial speculation from Britain's standpoint, I await the decision from above. β
"Isn't it just making trouble? Soros is nothing, I, Hu Wenhai, have never been afraid of anyone!"