Because of the Southeast Asian financial crisis in his previous life, Gu Kun was painful, so he had a thorough understanding of the details in this regard in his previous life, and he also looked for review information on the Internet afterwards.

As for whether he has the ability to snipe Soros and how he should snipe Soros, he is also very compelling in his heart, and he will definitely not blindly rush forward.

According to the information of the past life and the aftermath, Soros used as much as $3 billion of his own funds in the second half of 97 when he sniped the Thai baht for the first time.

Moreover, because Soros has a relatively short time to open a position, he can use a higher leverage ratio, which is said to be 15 times, and the total international travel capital leveraged has reached $45 billion.

Some people may be surprised: since the opening time is short and the volatility in the process of opening a position is small, it can be conducive to improving the leverage ratio of the transfer. So why did Gu Kun choose the method of slow position opening and small leverage? If he also opened positions as quickly as Soros, wouldn't he be able to mobilize more funds?

This is because Gu Kun himself does not have the ability to set off a storm, he just stabilizes his hand first, builds a good position and waits for the dealer to set off the market and drink soup with the trend. So when will the main market come, Soros knows in his heart that Gu Kun doesn't know, he has to go in early and wait first, which leads to him having to build a stable position and tolerate low leverage.

In this life, the situation will be somewhat different, but Gu Kun chooses to pay attention to the enemy, just as Soros can leverage at least 45 billion US dollars.

Therefore, if he fights against Soros during the Thai baht storm, Gu Kun's strength will definitely not work, and he will only lose all his money, how can 400 million pry 2 billion be with 3 billion pry 45 billion? He can only follow Soros's operation.

Then, seeing this step, if you don't know much about the follow-up history, you may have a second question:

Since this wave of Gu Kun can't go against Soros, why did he do it again in the Hong Kong dollar storm a year later?

If he just follows the trend and shaves the peak and fills the valley in advance, Gu Kun may slightly lower Soros's income, and even look better than Soros in terms of multiples of income, but in terms of the absolute value of income, Soros will definitely be far from Gu Kun.

For example, suppose Gu Kun changes from 400 million to 1 billion, and he makes a net profit of 600 million, which is considered to be appreciated to 2.5 times in multiples.

Then Soros may be 3 billion to 6 billion or 7 billion, which is 2 times or 2.3 times from a multiple, which is not as high as 2.5 times that of Gu Kun. But the absolute income is 3 billion or 4 billion, which is much more than Gu Kun. (There may be tens of billions of dollars or even more in revenue, which have been divided up by other international travel funds that follow Soros)

A year later, Gu Kun relied on 1 billion to do Soros's 7 billion, isn't it still an egg hitting a stone?

If there are only two factors in the field, Gu Kun and Soros, then maybe this is right.

But the problem is that Gu Kun knows that during the Hong Kong dollar storm in history, Soros had already retreated, not to mention spit out all the money earned from the previous baht storm, but at least part of it. Historically, what played against Soros was the macroeconomic regulation and control measures of the Xiangjiang side to protect the city, and it used a large amount of Xiangjiang's foreign exchange reserves.

Therefore, even in the Hong Kong dollar hedging a year later, Gu Kun did not plan for him to play the main force himself, he just wanted to be a pioneer to lure the enemy, let Soros chase deeper, and then wait for the main force to protect the city to appear, and beat Soros even worse together.

Since this is the case, then as long as Soros earns a little less this year, and the total capital against Soros next year increases a little, the chances of winning will be higher.

Because the potential workhorse of the protective disc has always been there. Soros did not expect that there would be macroeconomic regulation and control, but because Soros misjudged that the signboard of "absolute free market for financial transactions" was very valuable, and believed that macroeconomic regulation and control would damage the credibility of market freedom.

……

After having a clear positioning for himself, Gu Kun was in the prelude to being sniped in this wave, and the countermeasures seemed to be very easy.

Beginning in the week of July 7, after everything was ready, Liang Jinsong's Blackstone Fund began to help Gu Kun build a position step by step, "borrowing Thai baht spot to buy US dollars, and selling US dollars to pay off Thai baht after the option expires".

Soros is like a black hand plotting to run a bank.

Gu Kun seemed to know in advance that he was going to run on the bank, so he borrowed enough mortgages from the bank that was about to be run on before the run happened. (The "collateral" in this metaphor is Gu Kun's $400 million principal)

However, in the foreign exchange options market, the bank in the metaphor has the right to make the decision to "give discounts to customers who have not yet matured in order to prevent a credit collapse in order to prevent a credit crash, in exchange for them to repay the loan early to the bank for emergency relief".

When Gu Kun "sends charcoal in the snow to repay the loan during the run period", he can repay a little less, and counting the leverage ratio, the difference can be netted.

Liang Jinsong's method of helping Gu Kun build a position is very stable, and in the first week, including leverage, he only built a position of 300 million US dollars, so the foreign exchange market basically did not notice this source of volatility.

Liang Jinsong also released some false news and rumors, whitewashing Gu Kun's position as the behavior of some other international buyers, and also whitewashed the reason as "some cultural and tourism investment tycoons have raised their expectations for the future development prospects of Thailand's tourism industry". In this way, no one is even more vigilant, and there are really people who want to temporarily speculate on the Thai baht and make a small difference.

In this atmosphere, with the halfway point of July, the second week of the opening period was also very stable, and the position reached the size of $800 million without increasing costs.

I have to admit that although this series of decisions was made by Gu Kun himself, the delicate operation methods of the Blackstone Fund are definitely indispensable. Otherwise, if you change to an agency that is not stable enough, it will definitely be discovered by other investors and rumors will fly all over the sky.

However, as the amount of money poured in, it became more and more difficult to hide, and by late July, it was finally time for Soros to notice.

……

One day in late July, New York, Wall Street, Quantum Fund Headquarters.

"Boss, there are currently some abnormal Thai baht positions in the Thai baht market, and the redemption period is still unclear, but the long-term purpose of these buyers is definitely to short the Thai baht, just like us - could it be that some of your allies have not rushed ahead of schedule according to the planned rhythm?"

One of Soros's horses reported the latest monitored abnormalities to the boss as soon as possible.

Soros squinted a pair of thief eyes, quietly scanned the situation reported by his subordinates in detail, and then touched the big eagle's hooked nose and pondered for a few seconds:

"To Rohenstein, Dornberg, XX Stan, YY Borg...... Call and test it. ”

He gave a long list of names of the Shining Gold people such as Stan and So-and-so Borg, and it was obvious that these were all his fellow international investors who had been half-concealed in advance.

This kind of thing must be kept as confidential as possible, but it is necessary to contact in advance, otherwise it will not be able to rely on so much money.

Therefore, it is generally not finished speaking, giving a little wind to let the other party understand by himself, be a little mentally prepared, and prepare the money first. Then I saw that there was a mastermind and a move, and I followed the trend as soon as possible.

As for whether to follow the trend, whether you dare to follow the trend, and how closely you follow, it depends on whether the previous cooperation is pleasant and whether Soros will cheat his teammates.

And this kind of thing, it is difficult to guarantee that you will not meet teammates who are more keen than the mastermind, guess one step ahead, or be more greedy and rash.

Now that you have encountered a mysterious position that is clearly out of the planned pace, it is necessary to take an internal inventory.

It's a pity that after a round of phone calls, nothing was gained.

"Who lied to me, or did one of them have a fool who leaked the inside information and even they don't even know about it?"

Soros couldn't help but groan,

"Or is there really someone who has seen the same thing and predicted the unsustainability of Thailand's rapid economic growth as I do?"

Even if you can't find an answer, you have to give emergency countermeasures, and after a short thought, Soros decided to make a quick decision:

"Tell Shirley, speed up the opening of the position!

"Good boss, we know what to do. ”

Speeding up the opening of a position will definitely intensify the volatility of the market for absorbing chips, and the difference between the final average cost and the final price when the position is closed will also be narrowed, thereby narrowing the profit of shorting.

Moreover, if the current position is opened with a 5% loss in the transaction price, the future profit loss will definitely be more than 5%. This is easy to understand, using elementary school mathematics as an example.

For example, if the current exchange rate of the Thai baht is 100%, and the price falls to 95% due to the accelerated short selling, the final exchange rate of the Thai baht may only be 40% of the current after the collapse in the future. If the 100% position falls to 40%, the profit is 60%, and if the 95% position is closed and 40% is closed, the profit is 55%.

In the end, the degree of loss of the money earned in hand is to remove 60% from 55%, which is about 8% less earned.

However, no matter how big the loss of the cost of opening a position is, it is obviously more important now to prevent too many long nights caused by too slow opening of a position.

Soros and his allies have gone against the norm in a few days, speeding up the pace of building positions, and the Thai authorities are increasingly stretched to defend the exchange rate.

A large number of short sellers with maturities ranging from a few months to a maximum of one year have been desperately swept up the Thai baht to exchange for the foreign exchange reserves of the Thai authorities, and the US dollars in the reserves of Thai financial institutions have almost been bought out.

In addition, since the end of last year, Thailand's export growth has stagnated and the stock market has fallen, and other hidden dangers have been on the verge of walking a tightrope.

When the last straw of foreign exchange reserve pressure was overcome, Thailand's financial management department was finally ready to completely abandon the peg exchange rate system of the Thai baht to the US dollar in August.

To speak in good conscience, the catastrophe of the Thai Yankees is actually not entirely worthy of sympathy, and the elements of their own work are also very large: when the export growth rate was 18% in 95, Thailand actually dared to raise the minimum wage by 23% in order to please the people at the bottom. As a result, export growth in '96 was reduced to almost zero growth.

Originally, the country's entrepot processing industry had no technical advantages, and it was all supported by cheap labor, and the cheapest price of labor was raised by 23%, so the shrinkage of exports was not self-inflicted?

If you don't blow it or black it, Soros can succeed, and speculation only plays a secondary role. Thailand's own exports have shrunk and international financing markets have lowered their expectations for Thailand's prospects.

Therefore, how much minimum wage can people in a country get and how dignified they can live, in fact, they should be grateful to the scientists of this country. The dignity of the poorest people in Oceania is what the scientists of Oceania fight for for them.

Thailand, a small country without any core technology, wants to violate the laws of the market to give the poorest people a little more dignity, and in the end they can only be crushed by the laws of the market.

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