Faced with today's situation, Liang Jinsong was really stunned for a while.

However, he still forced himself to calm down, pondered for a while, and gave the big customer a little explanation:

"Could it be that he thinks that the SAFE is not 'sincere' enough? He wants to force out the benchmark model of foreign exchange protection that he would like to see more? That's why he spends so much money in the foreign exchange market and fights for a while. ”

"What do you mean?" Gu Kun was not a professional after all, and he didn't react fast enough.

Liang Jinsong: "I mean, if you insist that Soros wants to be the owner of Huifu, then I put myself in your shoes under the premise of your assumption, and think he should think like this:

He also knew that his funds were not sufficient to support 'continuing to depress the Hong Kong dollar in the face of strong foreign exchange protection by the foreign exchange authorities'. It's not that he doesn't feel that he should back down under the attack of the protective disk, but he feels that he shouldn't back down under this form of protective disk. He will not back down under the single protection of 'only spending money to protect the disk', and he wants the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the bank to show greater 'sincerity'——

Of course, all of this is based on the premise that you have identified him as a 'shareholder Huifu'. From my personal point of view, I am not so firm in the premise of your assumptions. ”

Gu Kun touched his chin and smiled proudly: "Thank you, you are very professional." You can calmly deduce based on this assumption even if you don't agree with the client's premise assumption, which shows that your empathy is extraordinary. ”

Liang Jinsong's words were very awkward, but Gu Kun had already understood.

As mentioned earlier, there are two main ways to protect foreign exchange disks.

One is to accept without restriction in the event of a run, promising that I will sell as much as you buy. Today's transaction is like this, the management department of Xiangjiang used a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange reserves, forcefully sold US dollars in exchange for Hong Kong dollars, and once forced Soros back.

The second way to protect the disk is to announce an interest rate hike again, or at least a more covert disguised interest rate hike.

It's the same as preventing a run on a bank. When banks are run, they are either open for people to withdraw money, or they announce interest rate hikes that make everyone feel that it is more profitable to save longer and are reluctant to withdraw money.

There are pros and cons to both methods, the former has the advantage that it will not affect other markets, and it will cost a huge amount of capital reserves. The advantage of the latter is that it costs less, but raising interest rates will lead to insufficient investment and capital return, so that the stock market, bond market, and property market have a certain downturn.

Today, the SAFE is still the first trick, that is, it is open for you to redeem.

Soros behaved so toughly, it may be that he wanted to convey a message:

I want you to use the second move to protect the disk, or at least the first and second moves are combined to protect the disk.

If you only use the first move, Soros will take out the courage to fight and smash it, conveying a message: Maybe you can protect it, and my brother won't make money, but if my brother can't make money, he will let you not die and peel off the skin, so that Xiangjiang's foreign exchange reserves will plummet!

The size of a region's foreign exchange reserves is important. In addition, if Soros really fires on firepower, relying on the local foreign exchange reserves of Xiangjiang alone may not be enough to open up the exchange, and it is possible that he will have to borrow the foreign exchange reserves of the mainland.

In this case, if the pressure is high, it is indeed possible to force the management department to test it and see if it will calm the attacker's will to fight to the death in combination with the second move.

Gu Kun felt that he had basically guessed seven or eight.

Let's look at the results of the next day.

......

Sure enough, the battle for capital protection continued the next day, and the Xiangjiang State Administration of Foreign Exchange took out billions of dollars of funds and opened them up for people to redeem.

However, the international bears are still fierce, and the Hong Kong dollar selling orders equivalent to tens of billions of US dollars are frantically smashing down.

In the morning, 8 blocks and 4s were lost. There was a tug of war in the middle, and when it was close to the end of work in the afternoon, even 8 pieces of 5 were lost.

This is serious, within two days, the two integer levels of 8 and 8 5 were breached, and the confidence of the people was too bad.

The money that Gu Kun invested to test the waters before suddenly lost more than $50 million on his books, and with yesterday's money, it was equivalent to a cumulative loss of more than $80 million.

Fortunately, these are just accounts, not real meat.

Once the snowball rolls up, not to mention the players in the foreign exchange market, even ordinary citizens who usually do not speculate in foreign exchange, all take the cash of Hong Kong dollars and rush to the exchange points to rush to the US dollar.

Once more than 100,000 citizens line up on the streets, the social rendering effect is very violent. However, if the exchange rate management department wants to use more foreign exchange reserves to protect the disk, the approval procedures and response speed will definitely not be as good as that of private international shorts.

After all, when it comes to the use of tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves, how many people at public dinners dare to sign such a big matter? What should we do if we make a mistake in making a decision? When we hold meetings and discuss them, how can any speculator who is directly alone and gambling for his life react quickly.

I consulted President Liang of the Blackstone Fund yesterday, and he said that international travel funds are likely to use their vows to smash to show their determination to force us to raise interest rates, and as long as they succeed in forcing interest rate hikes, they may not be fighting with us endlessly. ”

The think tank of a management department said this to his boss.

The boss was still hesitating: "What about the stock market, the bond market, and the property market? The residents of this city are as good as ghosts, and they react too quickly, and they will run away at the slightest disturbance." The stock market is already in a downturn, and this interest rate hike, the 10,000-point mark of the Hang Seng Index will definitely fall. ”

"Now I can't care so much, the money in the stock market is not the money of the state and the government after all. A few years ago, those small scattered institutions were too greedy to speculate so much, let them have some blood!

This is the truth, after weighing it internally, the management department decided to continue to spend money to protect the market, and at the same time symbolically half-conceal and half-conceal a little disguised interest, to see if that gesture can be exchanged for the international speculators to stop fighting.

......

The decision to raise interest rates in disguise was made before the end of work on March 11, and then an emergency notice was given, and the effective date was to start the next day.

An unsettling night passed in apprehension, especially the cash exchange point, which could not be open 24 hours a day, so ordinary citizens queued up until the door closed, and they could only go back first and then wait and see.

The next day, on the morning of March 12, everything seemed to change.

In the middle of the night, the international tour capital weakened its offensive slightly, allowing the foreign exchange management department to buy orders, and recovered the 8 yuan 5 mark.

Then the two sides stalemate in 8 yuan and 4 cents for a whole night, until 9 a.m. on the 12th, after the Hong Kong stock exchange opened and the Hang Seng Index began to fluctuate.

It seems to confirm that the interest rate on Hong Kong dollar deposits of major banks in Hong Kong has really changed, and the stock market has fallen from 10,300 points to 9,900 points, falling below the integer mark of 10,000 points.

However, the small scatter on the market is sluggish after all, and many people are not rich enough to associate, and they are still constantly exchanging Hong Kong dollars for dollars, and even elderly uncles and aunts are queuing up on the street.

Because, the reduction of bulk acceptance pressure cannot be directly transmitted to the result, and there is a lag inertia.

Many laymen will only look at the total volume and price of trading volume, but will not look at the structure and components of trading volume.

Professional people, at this time, will know that "on the surface, the international giants have withdrawn and adjusted, and may have softened, and the exchange rate is still falling, which is caused by ordinary citizens."

In other words, Soros has withdrawn, but the gangsters who were frightened by Soros's previous resolute posture have not withdrawn, and they continue to fall for the time being, which is amplified by this ant's panic.

Gu Kun clearly recognized the situation and immediately ordered: "Hurry up and make up for the position! Soros has really reached a tacit agreement with the foreign exchange management to reach a sphere of influence, as long as he is willing to raise interest rates, he will not stumble in the foreign exchange market! Get all my $2 billion principal down and leverage 15 times! Don't stop until I push the Hong Kong dollar back to the 8 yuan mark!"

Before 500 million twice the leverage, it was just a way to explore, and I lost 80 million yuan when I probed.

But now it's the real thing.

When playing the Thai baht, Gu Kun only dared to increase the leverage by 5 times at most, that was because the fluctuation of the Thai baht was too large, and it fell by nearly 20% in a day, so 5 times the leverage can basically ensure the prevention of liquidation.

The Hong Kong dollar is more mature than the Thai baht, coupled with the existence of the market value of the Hong Kong dollar-denominated stock market, the capacity of the Hong Kong dollar is much larger than the Thai baht, even if it falls from 7 9 to 8 5, it is only about 7% of the decline, so unless it falls so deeply, it is possible to blow up 15 times the leverage. Gu Kun also felt that this margin was enough.

However, Liang Jinsong persuaded from a professional point of view:

"Be steady, right? What if Soros is luring the enemy? The volume of large selling orders is disguised as more small scatters, but the total volume is not reduced, which can completely create an illusion. When Soros was in Thailand, he disguised more than 600 major accounts and more zombie accounts to scatter attacks, and we had to guard against it.

I think 10 times the leverage is the most for the time being, otherwise, let's wait until the total number of sell orders also starts to shrink, and then add 20 times to chase after the victory, and we will come in stages. ”

Gu Kun pulled a handful of his hair: "What you said also makes sense, it's not impossible to stabilize one hand, the total trading volume of selling orders will not fall, only the percentage of large transactions, which may be faked...... Who knows how there are so many small scatters in Xiangjiang, and the people here play finance for the whole people? The number of trading accounts on the floor is approaching 1 million! This city has a population of just over 6 million!"

Liang Jinsong arranged the transaction in accordance with the practice of stabilizing his hand.

After Gu Kun's big buy order appeared, it merged with the buy order of the foreign exchange management department, and it broke through 8 yuan 3 again in just half an hour, and then it was time for the lunch break.

The crowd queuing up to exchange banknotes on the street noticed the fluctuation of the exchange rate, and the queuing phenomenon finally dissipated. In the field of electronic trading, the number of small selling orders has also begun to decrease, and the total volume of trading volume waiting to sell has also begun to shrink.

Gu Kun asked Liang Jinsong to increase the leverage again, beat the water dogs, and increased the leverage from 10 times to 20 times.

It's a pity that when he put up the list with leverage, the transaction price was already about 8 yuan 2.

Most of his previous orders were between eight and five to eight and three, and the average price was about eight and four less than a little.

In other words, Gu Kun was 20 times more ruthless than at the beginning, earning two cents less.

However, there is no way to do it, no one can think that the operation of the big rise and fall in the morning is not Soros's smoke bomb. To be on the safe side, earning less is also a must.

That night, the Hong Kong dollar had risen to 8 yuan 1, and Gu Kun's buy order was still gradually being filled.

After two days of steady transactions, it finally broke through the 7 yuan 8 mark and reached 7.76, even 0.12 more than before the Hong Kong dollar crisis, which can be regarded as stabilizing people's hearts.

It was also at this time that Gu Kun was able to relax and settle accounts slowly:

"My $2 billion capital was eventually leveraged to 20 times, which is equivalent to $40 billion in market capital.

At the beginning, the pathfinder money of 1 billion was opened at an average of 8.13, and when it fell to 8.5 at the beginning, it lost 4.5% cumulatively. But now it's back to 7 yuan 76, and all the losses in this part are back, and they have earned 4.6%, or $46 million.

The second batch was opened at an average price of 8.38, with a scale of 19 billion yuan after leverage, a profit ratio of 7.4%, and a pre-tax income of 140.6 billion US dollars, which is the wave we made the most.

The third batch was built around the 8 blocks 2 mark, and the final average price was higher than the first batch, which was already 8.08, basically only making a saliva money to chase after the victory, only 3.96% yield, 20 billion scale, and a profit of 792 million US dollars.

The three batches of buying orders all added up, not counting fees and commissions, and earned $2.245 billion. ”

has already dared to gamble on leverage, but in the foreign exchange market, after all, it has only more than doubled the capital, and it is not the kind of sudden wealth that laymen imagine.

If you count the operating commissions of the Blackstone Fund, and then count the various handling fee rates and the rate of increasing leverage, it can be just a little more than double.

In the next stage, Gu Kun has 4 billion US dollars on hand.

Of course, it is not excluded that there are some small fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

On the other hand, Liang Jinsong seems to be not as optimistic as Gu Kun, and he has to remind Gu Kun:

"Boss, you think too simply, you haven't made all this money - you bought so many Hong Kong dollars, and turned all your liquid assets into Hong Kong dollars.

Unless you are willing to hold the Hong Kong dollar in the future, otherwise when so many Hong Kong dollars are thrown out, the Hong Kong dollar will still fall sharply, and you will not be able to get out of the price of 7 yuan 76. ”

The money is not so easy to earn, and Gu Kun is only making money on the books now. Unless he is willing to use Hong Kong dollars in the future, take Hong Kong dollars, and always have Hong Kong dollars in his hands, it will not be completely settled.

However, Liang Jinsong obviously still underestimated Gu Kun.

Gu Kun didn't care: "It's okay, I have so many Hong Kong dollars, and I'm just going to speculate in Hong Kong stocks." I don't think it's my turn to worry about the trouble of holding too much Hong Kong dollars, so let's think about it first, after using this money to buy Hong Kong stocks in the future, I will hold too many shares. Li Jiacheng also has hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars in his hands, and he is not worried. ”

The retreat in the foreign exchange market is only the achievement of Soros's goal in the first phase, forcing the authorities to use the specific mode of raising interest rates in disguise to protect foreign exchange and end the main war in the foreign exchange market, which only means that the onslaught on the stock market has just begun.

——

(Speed it up, this one is more than 4,000 words.) Put the exchange rate battle to an end. ）

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