On the one hand, they are always ignorant and led by the nose by various public opinions, and on the other hand, they instinctively have a rebellious mentality towards most of the "authoritative experts", especially young people under the age of 30;

Yaya, I believe you all, how can I highlight my own personality, how can I show my difference?

In this era where people will be despised if they are not cool, I don't want to be a puppet of mediocrity!

Out of this psychology, even if the media is very disparaging and unoptimistic about "The Second Depression", there are still many people who have a firm belief in watching the movie;

Don't forget, the striking giant LEDs and the constantly beating numbers in the Imperial Plaza remind passers-by that this is clearly a film that is different from other films, and that they are full of confidence.

Even if you are not very interested in movies with this theme, how can you not get together with such a big melon and such a big and lively one?

……………………

January 23, the premiere day of "The Second Depression";

People come to the movie theater in small groups on and off, and they keep betting on what story the movie tells and dares to predict the bankruptcy of the American economy;

Wars, natural disasters, alien invasions?

Yes, it's no wonder that these people are ridiculously speculating.

The trailer of the movie is all in the spring and autumn brushwork, and almost all the shots are shown in the riots of the people, except for a few fleeting images showing the plot of the US Treasury Department's private weakness to say that the US economy is about to collapse.

Soon after, all the audience took their seats, and seventy percent of the huge screening hall was occupied, which is already very good in the United States.

Less leaning, the lights dimmed, and the movie began......

………………

Benjamin is an investment manager at an investment bank on Wall Street, and Jefferson is a risk manager at this investment bank, and the two have a good personal relationship;

On this day, when Jefferson was drinking with Benjamin at home, he suddenly asked him mysteriously if he wanted to make a lot of money in private.

It turned out that Jefferson, as a risk control manager, had already discovered a year ago that the company's main MBS (mortgage securities), in which the customer overdue situation is becoming more and more serious, a year ago, only a small number of customers were small and mildly overdue.

However, by last month, more than 30% of customers were seriously overdue, of which more than 3 months overdue had reached 10% of the total number of customers, and these customers could not directly find information such as occupation and income, which is an extremely dangerous signal;

Then, he popularized how major financial institutions in the United States are driven by interests to convert the mortgage business into MBS (mortgage securities), and after the credit evaluation is falsified, the subprime mortgage assets (non-performing assets) of MBS are packaged into new CDO products and packaged and sold to major investors.

So under the stimulus of this false prosperity, everyone began to frantically put their money into the real estate market, and he once secretly investigated that many of the company's MBS customers were low-income low-wage earners, and even had a dancer with a completely unstable income, all with 5 properties under her name.

Finally, he took out his USB flash drive and inserted it into the computer, opened the data model he had established privately, pointed to the data on it and said: Don't look at the data on the bright side for investors, those data are very glamorous, but in fact, the overdue loans of these customers are all paid by the mortgage companies, because these mortgage companies are optimistic about the future wishful thinking, and they are not worried that those people will not be able to pay back, but in fact, the bubble of the US economy, especially real estate, is about to burst,

Therefore, he wanted to invite Benjamin to use his client resources to privately get a private equity fund to short American real estate.

Benjamin disagreed, saying how could housing prices fall in the United States?

Jefferson said very seriously that the housing prices in the United States have shown a clear downward trend in the last six months.

The fundamental reason is that a large part of these mortgages use high-risk adjustable interest rates, which are equivalent to 0 interest loans in previous years, but over time, interest rates continue to rise, and in later years, interest rates will be adjusted to more than 5%.

Based on this interest rate, people's monthly repayments soared to more than $1,500, which is an extremely high figure for those grassroots people in the United States, because the United States has a serious class solidification, their income has not grown, not to mention that many people have more than one property in their name, and the combination of the two causes their repayment pressure to exceed their salary level;

In this case, there will be more and more overdues, and the housing prices in the United States will continue to decline precisely because they want to sell off the property to recoup the funds, resulting in a large-scale sell-off.

Therefore, Jefferson predicts that in two and a half months at most, the number of mortgage defaulters in the United States will exceed 1 million, and at that time, a series of chain reactions will inevitably trigger a financial tsunami.

After listening to this, Benjamin looked at the data on the computer and thought carefully for a long time, and finally told him that he needed to think about it seriously......

………………

The next day, Jefferson was called into the office by the human resources manager and told that he had been fired for violating company rules.

Only then did Jefferson know that Benjamin had told the boss about last night, and he was rewarded with a salary increase, while he was swept away.

Jefferson was supervised by security guards to leave the company, and he was strictly forbidden to take anything from his office.

At the door of the company, he saw a smiling Benjamin, who spat viciously but said nothing.

………………

After Jefferson left, Benjamin immediately entered Jefferson's office with BOSS and several technical experts from the trading department, and found the USB flash drive in the drawer after rummaging through the cabinets.

After plugging in the computer, the technical experts imported all the data into the model, and finally concluded that Jefferson's mathematical model was correct, and the value-at-risk model and transaction model that banks are now using have huge loopholes because of unreasonable risk control parameters;

To put it simply, the trading volume and risk coefficient overlap If it is controlled within a specific threshold, the loss can be controlled, but once this threshold is exceeded, the risk will be infinitely magnified;

If you continue to buy MBS trading, once there is any problem, the bank's losses will exceed its market value, and it will go bankrupt in an instant;

In fact, according to Benjamin's risk control data model, after more than two months, people's real estate assets will fall by 25%, and then it will cause a chain reaction and a large-scale thunderstorm;

The technologist reminded the BOSS that if his investment bank did not respond within two months, it would be more than two months later when the bank would go bankrupt.

After listening to the words of the technical experts, BOSS first issued a gag order, and then urgently convened a high-level meeting to discuss solutions;

At the meeting, the executives began to shake the pot, but there was nothing they could do.

At this time, Benjamin, who was unusually invited to the meeting, proposed that in order to preserve the company, the company could use the trust of those customers to sell all the MBS and CDO products in their hands within two months, so that although some unscrupulous means will also lose the trust of all customers afterwards, but at least the company is preserved.

Executives strongly objected, saying that if the company loses the trust of its customers, even if it survives this crisis, it will not be far from bankruptcy.

After hearing this, the BOSS warned the executives with a blank face, don't play your own small calculations all day long, just think about your career and salary, if the company is bankrupt now, you don't have any career future at all, Wall Street does not accept any losers!

He immediately made a decision and accepted Benjamin's proposal.

………………

The next day, all the traders of the investment bank began to call their customers with complicated expressions after formulating trading indicators and investing heavily in incentives at BOSS.

The boss invited Benjamin to his office, warmly poured him a glass of wine, first took out a check for one million as the reward he proposed yesterday, and then asked if there was a way to free the bank from the negative effects of unscrupulous means, and said that if there was a real way, he would be rewarded with another $3 million.

Benjamin's eyes lit up, and he began to think about it, and finally came up with an idea,

That is, by using the funds recovered in the past two months, after the crisis, they will inject funds into important livelihood institutions in the United States, tie up the government in the name of saving the United States, and force the government to bail out the market, which can not only resolve their own credibility crisis, but also make a lot of money in turn;

He said that almost all economic activities in the United States are issued from upstream banking institutions, and then start the economic cycle, when the upstream banks are short of money, how can midstream enterprises have enough flow to operate?

And behind every large midstream enterprise there are countless affiliated enterprises, for American politicians, these are the sensitive points that really affect the whole body, and they are also the most important source of their vote base.

Some officials of the U.S. government may be happy to see the death of Wall Street banks, but government officials will never dare to let them collapse on a large scale in the middle and lower reaches, which will cause large-scale social riots.

The boss thinks it's a good idea, but he doesn't know which target to find;

Benjamin suggested that it would be better to inject capital into AIG (American International Group) at that time, and gave his own reasons;

He said that AIG has too many businesses, and it will definitely be on the verge of bankruptcy at that time, but the U.S. government will never dare to let him go bankrupt.

Think about it, the plane we were on was leased from AIG, the building in downtown New York was built by AIG, tens of billions of dollars of teachers' pensions were processed and distributed by AIG, and even 81 million life insurance policies in the United States with a book value of $1.3 trillion were underwritten by AIG;

With such a wide range of business and such a sensitive business content, how could the U.S. government dare to let it go bankrupt?

Therefore, when the time comes, the U.S. government will definitely buy most of AIG's shares to ensure that it does not go bankrupt, and its own bank can make a lot of money as long as it cuts in at the right time and signs the right agreement.

As for the people, ordinary people in the United States are very easy to fool, and with the name of "protecting the big and abandoning the small", it is easy to settle it when the time comes to spend some money on public relations.

After hearing this, the boss happily patted Benjamin on the shoulder, signed a check for 1 million on the spot, and said to him that when the matter was successful, he would accept the remaining 2 million.

………………

Time passed;

As the number of defaults and the total amount of money on the computer screen continued to increase, countless private banks and subprime mortgage companies panicked, and each company had to hold a half-day meeting every day, and then went crazy and sent business personnel and entrusted debt collection companies to visit the homes of those lenders, talk earnestly, and even intimidate;

However, things are not getting better, and the default numbers on the computer screen are still beating wildly;

Private banks and subprime mortgage companies have finally resorted to the ultimate killer weapon - confiscation of property!

Countless grassroots people were kicked out of their homes, watching bank staff put seals on their houses, and then they could only drag their families to prepare large packages and sleep on the streets, their faces full of numbness and despair.

In the evening, on the way back to the company, a young salesman from a subprime mortgage company looked at the tents on the street and asked his colleague with some trepidation: "Is this really good? Perhaps, we should report to our superiors and adopt some softer measures, which will only cause more serious panic." ”

The older salesman next to him said with a blank face: "You are still too young, capitalists only care about the money in their pockets, what is social responsibility? They don't have this word in the dictionary; as long as they can make their losses a little smaller, let alone these little panics, even if they blow up the Pentagon, they will definitely not be soft." ”

According to his experience, next, the "cost-effective" young people will definitely be laid off, but at least some compensation, compared to the ordinary people, but much better, not counting these people who stay on the street, those ordinary people, assets have shrunk by at least 1/3, not to mention, but also bear the risk of salary cuts and unemployment.

Then, the older salesman also showed a hint of sarcasm on his face, and concluded that these ordinary people in the United States, including himself, have to be cut a wave of leeks every ten years, and they have long been used to it.

After hearing this, the young salesman had a panicked look on his face, and he felt uneasy about his future......

………………

In the company, Benjamin smiled and dealt with an old client of his own, looking at his angry departing figure, he looked at the constant shouting and scolding from the phones of various traders in the office, and his eyes showed a little impatience;

The boss walked over and asked him how he felt, and Benjamin smiled sarcastically and said:

"People in this country are always like this, always thinking about getting something for nothing;"

"The group of fools at the bottom always think about the fresh clothes and angry horses, even if they can't afford it, they still want to live like a king;"

"And these investors, who can only accept the continuous increase in the number of bank card accounts every day, continue to avoid the words "there is a profit and a loss";

"Look, people are so stupid that they don't even understand what elementary school students know!"

"But they have forgotten that all that they have now is only that we used to shift the scales of wealth on their side;"

"And now, it's time to turn the scales back!"

The boss looked at Benjamin, who looked down on all beings, smiled meaningfully, patted him on the shoulder, and encouraged him to do a good job!

………………

The crisis has finally erupted;

Parks and streets are crowded with homeless debtors;

The U.S. stock market has plummeted day after day, countless divestment applications have been sent to various banks, countless companies have gone bankrupt, and layoffs are everywhere;

In just one month, the small subprime mortgage companies in the United States have disappeared, and small private banks have continued to go bankrupt due to the panic run of the people;

In response, the rest of the investment banks also suffered heavy losses due to the run on the public and private banks.

Major institutions continue to break out negative news and suffer heavy losses, and even the giant investment bank on Wall Street, the "Thunder Brothers", is facing bankruptcy immediately;

BOSS took advantage of this opportunity to inject $10 billion into AIG with a return on investment of 6% to help AIG repay part of its non-performing assets.

At this time, the officials of the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve finally couldn't sit still, and the officials of the United Federal Reserve convened the CEOs of major banks to discuss how to save the "Thunder Brothers";

At the first meeting, the Minister of Finance elaborated on the consequences and social unrest caused by the bankruptcy of the "Thunder Brothers", and in a pleading tone asked the major banks to subscribe for the shares of the "Thunder Brothers" so that he could tide him over.

The CEOs of the banks at the bottom looked reluctant, everyone is a competitor, why should they come to the rescue?

After a war-of-war discussion, the major banks are only willing to acquire the high-quality assets of the "Thunder Brothers", and the assets that are comparable to real estate, MBS and CDOs are completely unwilling to accept.

The Secretary of the Treasury coldly ridiculed, saying that this is the time for you to only care about making money for yourself? Once the US economy is finished, you will not end well.

The CEOs of the banks were indifferent, just looked at the finance minister with a slight contempt and did not say a word.

During the break of the meeting, the CEOs of the major banks exchanged their own thoughts, and some banks with their own debt crises took the opportunity to reach cooperation with other banks, but did not mention anything about the rescue of the "Thunder Brothers";

In the ensuing meeting, despite the US Treasury Secretary's painstaking persuasion, the CEOs of these banks took matters into their own hands to discuss how to help each other, and the Treasury Minister's eyes were on fire.

The first meeting broke up unhappily.

………………

Two weeks later, the "Thunder Brothers," the leading investment bank on Wall Street, finally went bankrupt, which caused great shock and panic in American society, and the run and sell-off situation became more and more serious, and many desperate stockbrokers chose to go down from the upper floors, and there was already turmoil in society, and the things of fighting and burning down shops gradually appeared, and the crowd of protests and demonstrations surrounded Wall Street and the White House.

At this time, Jefferson, who was fired from the squid, appeared, he found those homeless people, selected a few people who seemed to be irritable to get together for a detailed discussion, and then asked these people in a seductive tone, like a salted fish to turn over and take advantage of this crisis to make a fortune?

Several of the people who were called over looked at each other, and then expressed no trust in him at all.

He first introduced his identity as a risk control expert very formally, and then took out a stack of reports and articles interviewed by the previous media and handed them out to prove his identity;

After seeing a few people believe in their identities, Jefferson told them very firmly that he often deals with the US government, so he knows very well where the bottom line of the US government's tolerance in this special period is, as long as the operation is done properly, a few people who are doing it can become millionaires in just half a month, and they don't have to take much risk.

Looking at the slightly hesitant crowd, Jefferson began to impress them with his family, and eventually, the men nodded in agreement, indicating that they were willing to give it a try.

…………

In the days that followed, these people began to organize and incite people in the same situation, calling for protests and demonstrations for the U.S. government to come up with a solution, so as to save themselves from living like dogs on the streets.

This proposal was quickly embraced by countless people;

Two days later, countless people poured into the streets, waving protest banners and chanting slogans for the U.S. government to come forward to solve the problem;

During this process, the police who maintained order watched the whole process, and there were no problems in the first two days;

As a result, on the third day, when the police were maintaining law and order as usual, a few stones suddenly were thrown out of an invisible corner and smashed on the heads of the policemen, and the crowd of demonstrators shouted that these policemen were the accomplices of the capitalists;

Immediately, the two sides began to push and fight, and the few people who were gathered took the lead, looking like they were out of control, calling on everyone to "show the power of their anger", and there was a physical confrontation between the marcher crowd and the police, and the matter soon turned into a group incident, hundreds of policemen were injured, dozens of marchers were arrested, and the rest dispersed in a hurry.

This kind of conflict happened several times in a row, and the people became more irritable, and began to smash shops and loot goods on a large scale, and countless people happily held on to the goods they had earned and a little money, and looked at other stores, especially luxury stores, and the word "greed" gradually appeared in their eyes.

In the smoke-filled streets, Jefferson and the few people who had gathered were hiding in violently broken jewelry stores, happily stuffing pieces of gold jewelry and jewelry into their bags;

Jefferson said to them triumphantly, I am right, as long as the social group incident is loud enough, as long as it is not a mass murder, even if it is such a strict crossing of the line, the US government will hold the principle that more is better than less, and tolerate it enough.

Several people looked at Jefferson with convincing expressions, planning to call more people to the violent march and then make a little more;

For a moment, the jewelry store was filled with smug and arrogant laughter......

………………

As mass riots continued to emerge, the U.S. government could not sit still and held a second interview.

This time, the U.S. Treasury Secretary relaxed the conditions and asked major banks to lend to bail out the market, but the Federal Reserve will also take action, in addition to acquiring 80% of AIG's shares to maintain stability, it will also release up to $100 billion to major banks to help rescue the market;

But the only condition is that these banks must lend out all the $100 billion to revitalize the capital flow of various enterprises and save the normal operation of the US economy.

A group of bank CEOs smiled and began to report their psychological expectations, begging for their share of funds, and their philistine and ugly faces made the audience disgusted.

After the share of funds is divided, the meeting ends.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary slumped in his seat somewhat weakly, looking complicated and worried;

The assistant on the side asked him what he was worried about;

The U.S. minister sighed and said he was worried that a large part of the $100 billion would not be lent to those companies, and the U.S. economy would still be hit hard.

The assistant was incomprehensible, saying that this was the money of the Federal Reserve, and it was the money that the US Treasury used to save the market, how dare those banks not lend this money?

The Minister of Finance said expressionlessly: "Yes, the money of the US government is lent to these banks without compensation, but it is not possible to force them to use the money in essence, this is ...... It's America!"

………………

Sure enough, in the two weeks after borrowing, although banks began to lend one after another, after statistics, less than 60 billion was released, and the remaining 40 billion was returned to the financial market and began to be used for a new round of financial asset optimization.

The U.S. minister looked at the statistics brought by his assistant, was silent for a long time, and then slammed the cup on the desk to the ground, and closed his eyes weakly......

Next, the U.S. economy is still not improving.

In order to survive, companies have to continue to lay off employees;

Many unemployed people have to file for bankruptcy and live on the streets because of their heavy debts;

Protests and demonstrations of all kinds have intensified, smashing and burning incidents have emerged one after another, and the police are exhausted......

…………

A month later, Jefferson, dressed in a high-end suit, drove an open-top sports car slowly through the streets of depressed New York, looking at the few shops on the street that were only sporadically open and the densely packed tents on the street, and smiled with disdain on his face that was numb and desperate;

On the LED display on the street, the news is playing: "Today, the Dow Jones index continues to plummet by 600 points, the national unemployment statistics have exceeded 10 million, the U.S. economy has deteriorated further, and the former U.S. Treasury Secretary XX resigned......"

At this time, he suddenly saw Jefferson, who was dressed as an upstart on the street, with a hint of ridicule flashing on his face, and then greeted him very warmly in the car, but his eyes involuntarily glanced at a check pressed on the co-pilot;

Jefferson, on the other hand, seemed to have no memory of being betrayed, as if he had seen an old friend, and waved his hand enthusiastically, and the gold bracelet with the thick thumb in his sleeve shone in the sun......

The end of the play!

………………

After watching this seemingly ordinary movie, many viewers in it refused to get up,

They froze, and the plots and logical deductions in it, including the attitudes of all parties, were completely consistent with their perception of the United States;

Even the data mentioned many times looks like they are presentable, and they feel completely worthy of scrutiny.

Is this really a film made by a Chinese director?

Thinking of the various scenes in the movie that seem to be incomparably real and the terrible consequences that are deduced;

These viewers suddenly felt a little cold on their backs......

PS: The plots of these movies are a fusion of some plots of the three movies "Big Short", "Too Big to Fail", and "Storm of Interests", plus some original content, after all, it is a movie based on facts, and there is not much room for change, everyone who is interested can go and watch these three movies.