Chapter 795: Exchange Rate Depreciation

On the issue of Britain and Germany choosing sides in this sterling crisis, Hu Wenhai did not think about it for too long.

On the one hand, this time the British did a really authentic job, and they reported to Mr. Hu before the CIA started. On the other hand, there are many cooperation projects between ST and the UK, but there is not much friendship with the Germans.

The British have a strong advantage in finance, or since World War II, Britain's pillar industry has been dominated by the financial industry. Soros wants to short the pound because the members of the hedge fund are powerful figures in the United States and are not worried about an overreaction from the British side.

But Hu Wenhai looked at the above meaning, and even the national team didn't dare to go out in person, needless to say, he would definitely have to be a man with his tail between his legs in the next few years. It may not be a problem to expect the state to come forward afterwards. But I hope that at the beginning, there will be domestic platforms, I am afraid that I don't think the current international situation in China is too good.

That being the case, it is clearly not appropriate to short the pound.

However, the root cause of the current sterling crisis is that the British side overvalued the British pound, which led to a strong depreciation pressure on the pound after the Deutsche Mark raised interest rates.

If we want to divert the Germans from this crisis, we must first solve this fundamental problem. As long as the problem of overvaluation of the pound is not resolved, then it is foreseeable that the financial crisis of the pound will not disappear. Hu Wenhai wants to protect the pound in this situation, which is simply a contrarian operation, unless he can withstand the scale of the entire international travel capital.

This is obviously unlikely, and how to solve the crisis in the pound is really a head-scratching matter.

However, now that Hu Wenhai is no longer the time to fight alone, not to mention Chen Fa and Fang Jiange, who are famous figures in the international financial market, which player in the Xinke International Investment Department is not a hidden dragon and a crouching tiger, it may not be slightly worse than Soros's think tank.

Soon, a plan with a fairly feasible plan was on his desk.

10 Downing Street, London, United Kingdom.

The current president of Braavos Bank, Arnold, is a top investment bank in the "square mile" area, and he has a rather dazzling resume. Not only did he graduate from Cambridge University, but he also served as a civil servant and secretary to the Prime Minister. After his retirement, he received the title of knighthood and was arguably one of the top figures in London.

And since October, Mr. Arnold has not allowed himself to be idle. In fact, not only Mr. Arnold, but the whole of London, or rather, the whole of Western Europe at this time, was immersed in a sea of joy.

The Soviet Union, the horrific nightmare that had long oppressed the countries of Western Europe, collapsed after their own dazzling manipulation!

Since then, there has not been a day of feasting and festivities at 10 Downing Street. British Prime Minister John Major used to be Margaret Thatcher's foreign minister and finance minister, and he can be said to be in the same vein as Margaret Thatcher in terms of policy. The collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest achievement for him and the Conservatives in the past decade.

Of course, as for whether the Soviet Union played eggs and the Conservative Party - does it matter?

Anyway, it doesn't matter if it's heavy, it doesn't affect the all-night party in 10 Downing Street.

Arnold wore a formal suit today, with the belt of the gown tied above his navel, which made his breathing feel a little difficult. However, in the banquet hall at this time, the position of the waistband of the trousers is actually the small detail that can best reflect a person's social status.

After the banquet began, Arnold found an opportunity to quietly approach John Major's side. The Prime Minister of the British Empire has recently been changing his image dramatically in order to avoid losing to Labour's Kinnock in the upcoming general election. He was wearing a white shirt and jeans today, with a low-waisted style similar to that of the stevedores on the docks, which made Arnold frown slightly.

"Mr. Prime Minister, your dress is a bit unseemly. Arnold raised his glass and looked John Major up and down unceremoniously.

As the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, John Major is selling quite well. Even in the clothes of an "East Londoner", he looks more like a university professor, full of gentlemanliness.

"Oh, it's Mr. Arnold!" John Major said with a sigh of relief and a smile on his face: "The general election is coming soon, you know, I have to compromise on my personal image to make sure that the Labour Party does not come to power, and that would be a disaster!"

Compared to Labour's Fabian socialism, the Conservatives are indeed natural allies of the financial community. Both Margaret Thatcher and John Major have always been supportive of the financial industry.

From this point of view, John Major is a little out of line in dressing, which cannot be said to be a "lower riba person", it can only be said that Mr. Prime Minister is indeed a dedicated professional.

"Actually, I don't think we'll be in big trouble before Labour comes to power!"

Arnold looked at John Major seriously and proposed: "If it is convenient, I hope to have a good talk with you, Mr. Prime Minister." ”

John Major looked left and right, then put down his glass and nodded, then turned and walked towards a small room next to the banquet hall.

The palatial 10 Downing Street has clearly been developed over the past 100 years to take into account all the needs of its residents.

When John Major closed the door, all the sounds in the banquet hall outside suddenly disappeared. In the quiet room, only the sound of his and Arnold's breathing remained.

"All right, Mr. Arnold. John Major looked at his watch and pointed to the sofa next to him: "I have activities next, if there is anything we say, let's get to the point as much as possible, what do you think?"

"I couldn't agree more. ”

Arnold sat down opposite John Major and crossed his legs: "Mr. Prime Minister, the question of the pound sterling can no longer be delayed. The Germans were bent on establishing their economic hegemony in Europe and preparing for their position after the creation of the European Union. We now continue to keep the pound high, and in the end we will only fulfill the German mind. ”

"President Arnold, we've talked about this issue indirectly many times. John Major played with the wine glass in his hand and said absent-mindedly: "The relative exchange rate between the pound and the mark is guaranteed by agreement, and if you want to dissolve this relationship, No. 10 Downing Street does not have this power, you have to persuade the members and gentlemen of the House of Commons." ”

"Members of the House of Commons are just a bunch of stand-up comedians, as you and I know very well. Arnold snorted dissatisfiedly, and pointed out John Major's insincere attitude: "Because of the problem of the pound exchange rate, the British economy is under great pressure. As a result, our export enterprises have lost their competitiveness, our financial security is vulnerable, and we may become the target of international capital attacks at any time!"

"John, you are the Prime Minister of this country, and you have an obligation to protect the national security and economic interests of the United Kingdom!"

John Major disagreed, and sneered: "I think I have done a good job in this regard, and of course I and the Conservative Party have protected the UK." During my tenure, the Soviet Union fell apart because of our efforts, and for that alone no one could do my duty. As for the issue of financial security? Ha, Mr. Arnold, you probably forgot that Britain is one of the five major United Nations countries and is a sovereign country! It is not a small country whose finances are manipulated by others. ”

"Listen, Mr. Prime Minister, in the financial industry, even if you have a nuclear button, it doesn't help. Arnold took a deep breath and fought again: "Lowering the exchange rate of the pound will help increase the competitiveness of British industry and commerce, and it will also have an effect on increasing employment." By reducing the exchange rate of the pound against the mark by 5%, our financial system will return to the safe zone, and Britain will have the strength to face a possible crisis. ”

"Hmm-"

John Major pondered for a moment and asked hesitantly: "President Arnold, are you sure this will help to increase the employment rate?

In the view of John Major, who is facing the general election, there is really no other issue that will be more important than the employment rate. Arnold obviously knew this, and the killer move he made at the end really moved him.

In the past two years, the economies of Britain and Italy have been sluggish, with slow economic growth and rising unemployment, and the Conservative Party has been attacked and questioned by the Labour Party. The most direct means of exchange rate depreciation is to lower the central bank's guidance interest rate. Lower lending rates help to reduce the cost of financing for firms, which in turn leads to increased investment, which has a significant effect on expanding employment and increasing production.

Of course, there is no doubt about it. Arnold nodded: "Currency depreciation helps commodity exports, that's the basic common sense of economics." Now we are actively depreciating by 5% and still maintaining the correlation with the mark. If we depreciate because of the attack of international funds, we will have to break away from the European monetary system, and the rate of depreciation will never be more than 5%. ”

While John Major still has some concerns about politics, it was all worth it in the face of the election's approval ratings. He thought for a moment, then nodded slowly. What's more, Arnold, as the representative of the financial city, and his voice as the prime minister can never be ignored. No. 10 Downing Street, after all, is still a part-time worker.

"I will ask the foreign minister to negotiate with Germany to adjust the range of the linked exchange rate. As long as the German side can agree, I will do a good job in the House of Commons, and through the Bank of England's proposal to cut interest rates, I believe that the exchange rate of the pound will gradually be reduced to a safe range. ”

Arnold couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief when he heard this, and nodded with a smile: "The Prime Minister can rest assured that the City of London is very confident in safeguarding the interests of the United Kingdom." ”