Chapter 26 Investing in New York Gold Futures1
On the morning of November 2, Andrew and his entourage came to Citi Futures Economics, confirmed the funds of the fund company and the investment company to settle the accounts, and confirmed the guarantee amounts of the two accounts.
Coming to the dedicated trading room, Andrew first arranged the operation, the gold futures trading of the fund company's account.
In the fund company's account, there are 200 million Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to about 35 million US dollars. So, $15 million was left as a flexible fund and $20 million as a margin to operate.
$20 million in funds, with 15 times leverage, can be enlarged to $300 million in operational funds. Such a proportion of funds is just right.
Andrew determined the proportional disposal of the fund company's funds, and then a group of operators and traders issued trading instructions, set prices, and placed short orders to buy according to the formulated plan. Mr. Pete, a futures broker, went to the internal trading floor to complete the transaction after receiving the trading order.
Since the price of gold rose to $186 per ounce at the end of '74, the price trend from January to August this year has generally been a downward trend. However, since September, the downward trend of gold prices has gradually eased, and at the $143 / ounce mark, it has been strongly resisted by long orders.
In October, the price of gold has been at the $143 / ounce mark, up and down a narrow range of consolidation, the long and short sides are evenly matched. Therefore, the reaction of ordinary participants in the market began to diverge, and they still maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the recent gold contract, but the number of participants who were bullish and long on the gold forward contract gradually increased.
And Andrew's operating strategy is to be bearish until next June, 8 months of space. Therefore, in less than half an hour, at the current price of 142.7 US dollars / ounce, 21,000 short orders were all filled.
Seeing this trading situation, Andrew immediately arranged for the investment company's account to be connected to the transaction, with the same operation strategy.
The total amount of $100 million in the account of the investment company leaves $40 million as flexible funds, a margin of $60 million, and a leverage ratio of 15 times, which can be magnified to $900 million of operational funds.
Two hours later, the investment company's $900 million short order was successfully closed. At an average price of $142.8 per ounce, 63,000 lots of short orders were purchased.
The gold futures trading operation was completed very smoothly. A bit out of Andrew's expectations. But this morning's gold price action has shown an upward trend, which has also caused Andrew to be alarmed. Although Andrew can know the long-term trend of gold prices with the memory of his past life, there is no way to know the short-term price changes of gold.
Andrew thought to himself that if the price of gold rises by more than 5% in the short term, he needs to replenish the amount of margin, which must be prepared in advance to avoid any surprises.
Well, at noon, notify the operators of the second group first, after opening the futures account, postpone the entry, and leave the funds in the settlement account for calling.
At midday, gold surged above $130 an ounce. After taking turns to eat lunch, Andrew returned to the company's residence. A group of operators continued to watch the market in the afternoon and recorded the gold price trend.
At the company's residence, Andrew contacted the second group of operators and asked them to postpone entering the market after opening a futures account and leave the funds in the settlement account for calling. The specific timing of entry will wait for Andrew's notice.
In the afternoon, Andrew did not go to the futures exchange to keep an eye on the market, but slept beautifully in the hotel where he stayed to adjust the remaining jet lag fatigue.
After dinner, a group of operators recorded the gold price trend data in the afternoon and sent it to Andrew's room.
Afternoon data records show that the afternoon gold price action continued the upward momentum of the morning, and at the close, the price of gold closed at $143.2 an ounce. Compared with the price of the buy order in the morning, the floating loss is about $0.5 per ounce. With a floating loss of $50 per lot, the fund company has a total floating loss of $1 million today, and the investment company has a floating loss of $3 million.
Although, the total floating loss is not large. But Andrew looked at today's gold price trend data record and felt that the bulls' buy orders were obviously stronger. I found a pen and paper, drew a trend chart according to the gold price trend data recorded today, and marked the trading volume below the trend chart.
Comparing the two phases, the strength of today's long and short is clearly contrasted. Andrew thinks that from his own point of view, the short-term upward trend can be roughly determined, but I don't know what the short-term actual market trend is in gold?
In the next two days, the trend of gold prices continued to rise slightly, and on November 4, gold prices closed at $143.7 per ounce in the afternoon.
In three days, the loss was $1 per ounce, $100 per lot, $2.1 million for the fund company, and $6.3 million for the investment company. Citi Futures has asked Andrew to make up the margin account by the next trading day.
Officially invested in gold futures, but after opening a position, it lost money for three consecutive days, 6% of the total investment. The morale of the team members involved in the gold futures investment was obviously a little low in the face of such a situation.
However, in the face of such a floating loss for three consecutive days. Andrew was not so depressed and impetuous, because he had the backing of the memories of his previous life.
On the contrary, I feel that this is an opportunity, and now that the price has been raised at the beginning of the month, isn't it a good time to sell short?
It seems that we need to contact Hong Kong to find out about Henry's fundraising.
It happens that tomorrow is the weekend, and the futures exchange is closed for 2 days. There is no depression in watching the market, and everyone can relax their mood.
In the evening, Andrew contacted Mr. Henry in Hong Kong to ask him about the stock exit this week.
Mr. Henry responded: This week, the Hong Kong stock market began to stabilize and rebound slightly, and trading was a lot more active, with a trading volume increase of 80% compared with last week. This week, it withdrew 180 million Hong Kong dollars, about 30 million US dollars, from the Hong Kong stock market.
With the current trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market, Mr. Henry is also attentive to the fact that he can withdraw $30 million a week. On the phone, Andrew praised Mr. Henry's dedication.
He was also asked to transfer $30 million to 11 fund accounts in New York on Monday and to separate them according to the original fund distribution plan.
In addition, the subsequent withdrawal of funds from the Hong Kong stock market will be transferred to 11 fund accounts in New York at a frequency of once a week, and they will be recorded separately according to the fund allocation plan.
After Andrew and Mr. Henry contacted him about the affairs in Hong Kong, he contacted Shen Bi by phone. Shen Bi was notified of the investment in New York gold futures. And explained his prediction of the future market of gold futures, the trend of gold futures, the second half of the month will reverse, please Shen Bi rest assured to wait.
In fact, Shen Bi will also receive a report on the latest gold futures positions of the fund company every day. Knowing the actual situation of a floating loss of 6% in three days. Because he believed in Andrew's investment ability, he did not take the initiative to consult Andrew about the specific investment situation.
However, this time Andrew took the initiative to inform him about the investment in gold futures and explained his forecast for the future of gold futures. Such a frank style is very much Shen Bi's psychological identity.
At the end of the call, Shen Bi informed Andrew that his rival Charlie had reached a partnership with Hongkong Nubijian. And I heard about our investment in gold futures in New York. There may also be intervention in gold futures to let Andrew pay attention to their movements.
On Monday, November 7, $30 million was transferred from Hong Kong. $2,000 was credited to the settlement account of the successful investment company. $1 million was credited to each of the 10 shadow investment firm accounts, and each account now has $6 million.
On Monday, the futures exchange opened. Andrew topped up the limits of the two margin accounts at Citi Futures Request. Futures operators, who received Andrew's instructions, continued to wait and see the market, and recorded the gold price trend and transactions.
On Monday, the gold trend throughout the day still maintained the slight upward trend of last week. Gold closed at $143.9 an ounce. This represents a floating loss of $0.2 per ounce.
On Tuesday, the gold price trend throughout the day was around $143.9 per ounce, and the trading tended to be flat, and the long and short did not exert force. At the close, gold prices remained at $143.9 an ounce.
Wednesday morning continued Tuesday's flat, consolidating around $143.9 an ounce. But at 2 o'clock in the afternoon, the situation suddenly changed, and several consecutive million lot buy orders pushed the price of gold to $144.5 per ounce. It last closed at $144.3 an ounce.
Wednesday's gold closing price left Andrew's gold futures position floating at $0.4 per ounce.
As of Wednesday, the fund company's futures gold holdings had lost $1.6 per ounce in six trading days. Total floating loss of $3.4 million.
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