Chapter 68 Changes in the price of futures gold
PS: Thank you for reading!
On Monday evening, April 19, Andrew arrived in New York and was greeted by Mr. Lehman at the airport.
After dinner, in Andrew's room, Mr. Raymond reported to Andrew on the opening of a position in Dubai's entrusted funds.
Dubai's entrusted funds invested $1.4 billion in margin to raise $21 billion. I just opened a position today, and I bought all the June and August futures gold sell orders, with an average purchase price of $127.8 per ounce.
The new team led by Mr. Lehman operated the transaction independently for the first time and successfully completed the opening of the entrusted capital position in Dubai within the scheduled time. Andrew praised this and assigned Mr. Raymond the next assignment:
From tomorrow, all the US$600 million that Hong Kong has turned back will be transferred to the futures account of the Middle East Bank to continue to buy sell orders for June and August futures.
At noon the next day, after a full night and a morning of rest, Andrew's physical fatigue had basically recovered. After lunch, I began to pay attention to the situation of futures gold.
In the first half of April, the price trend of futures gold continued to follow the sideways consolidation trend in March, with a slight shock at the price of $127.8 per ounce.
However, since the second half of last week, the price trend of futures gold has changed slightly. The power of the air side is gradually strengthening. The specific embodiment is that the volatility range of futures gold prices continues to increase downward.
Andrew guesses, estimated to be the economic data for the first quarter of the United States, which was partially counted last week. Well-informed people have started to buy short based on the conclusions of the latest completed part of the economic statistics.
Judging from the price trend this morning, the power of the bears has increased again. Based on this situation, Andrew estimates that most of the economic data statistics in the first quarter of the United States have been completed, and the positive trend is relatively clear.
Thinking about the timing of the release of the US economic data statistics for the first quarter, this Friday and next Monday are the most likely.
The trend is clear, and time is running out! It seems that we have to speed up the pace of buying and try to complete all the buying transactions today. In addition, half of the reserve funds in hand can also be invested.
After thinking about it, Andrew immediately informed the Raymond team of the latest buying strategy and the investment of reserve funds.
And Andrew himself also opened 10 newly prepared shadow investment company futures accounts, with a total of 100 million US dollars, all of which were invested to buy futures gold sell orders in June and August.
After the day's futures gold close, Mr. Lehman reported to Andrew on today's futures gold buying transactions.
According to Andrew's latest buying strategy, the Raymond team has transferred back the $600 million principal in Hong Kong, as well as half of the reserve funds on hand, all of which were completed today.
"Raymond, very well done! The busy phase is over for the time being, and your new team can easily come down, as long as you record the daily transaction data. Next, it is our leisure to sit and watch, and the situation of futures gold prices has changed.
On Wednesday, the price of futures gold, except for the continuous increase in the shock range of the downward, only fell slightly by $0.2 per ounce throughout the day.
On Thursday, the power of the bears began a full start, and the price of futures gold fluctuated significantly downward, falling by $0.5 per ounce throughout the day. Barely standing at the $127 per ounce level.
As Andrew expected, at 9 a.m. on Friday, the U.S. federal government released economic development statistics for the first quarter of 1976. The economic development in the first quarter was, on the whole, optimistic.
If the economic development is good and the dollar is strong, then gold, as a safe-haven and hedging variety, will be a cold hedging commodity, and its price will also be weakly downward.
Such a trend is clearly reflected in the price action of gold futures on Friday. On Friday afternoon, the power of the bears, the full display, the price of futures gold, straight down, sell orders surging, fell by $2.8 per ounce throughout the day. Friday's closing price was $124.2 an ounce.
On Friday afternoon, Andrew also came to the futures exchange to watch the market with the Lehman team and watch the changes in futures gold prices.
In the face of the price of futures gold, there is no resistance to a straight down, such a situation, Andrew has experienced many times, and it is still within his prediction, but there is no surprise expression.
The members of the Raymond team are all newcomers, and the futures gold price trend that I have seen in the past month and a half is a calm consolidation situation. This afternoon's big change is the first immersive one.
And after the afternoon closing, the actuaries in Raymond's team also quickly summed up the investment they handled, and the book profit figure: $1.1 billion.
Hearing this terrifying number, the rookies in Raymond's team were stunned for a while.
Andrew didn't warn them, but just instructed Mr. Raymond to arrange a team incentive. He also reminded him to warn his team members to keep information confidential.
This is followed by a two-day weekend break. On Saturday morning, Andrew followed through the mainstream financial newspapers in the United States.
As for the interpretation of the various data of the economic development statistics for the first quarter of 1976, the vast majority of newspapers and periodicals commented that they were relatively optimistic about the future economic development trend of the United States.
Only a few comments have pointed out a few economic risks. On one point, Andrew agrees. That is, in the good economic development data of the United States in the first quarter of '76, a considerable part of the data contribution is due to the flow of foreign funds. (External investment flows are mostly unsustainable.) )
The widening trade deficit and government deficit in the United States are potential economic red flags.
However, for the recent price trend of gold, the mainstream financial newspapers and magazines in the United States have commented on the forecast, but they unanimously believe that the US economy is improving and the US dollar is strong, so the recent price trend of gold is definitely weak and downward.
There are even several pessimistic commentaries predicting that the forward price of gold will return to the price range below $100 per ounce.
With so many mainstream financial newspapers and periodicals, commenting on the endorsement and influence of the forecast, then the recent downward trend of gold futures prices can be determined.
Andrew estimates that the price of futures gold, which has been hit by the negative news, is likely to fall below the price level of $115 per ounce next week.
At the beginning of the new week, the price of futures gold has been going down without looking back. On Friday, the last day of April, futures gold prices fell below the $115 level of an ounce. It closed at $114.2 an ounce.
Well, a new question was in front of Andrew. How to deal with the June and August futures sell orders?
Take advantage of the situation to close all positions or hold them until June?
For a while, Andrew did not immediately make up his mind. As for the reversal of futures gold prices in the second half of the year, it is based on Andrew's past life memories. It is not clear what the months will be in the second half of the year.
The biggest possibility for Andrew to come is in late July. At that time, the statistical report on the economic development data of the United States for the second quarter will be freshly released. At that time, if the economic data is not good. Well, this is the realistic basis for the reversal of the price of gold in futures.
So how much room is there for futures gold prices to fall?
On Friday night, the latest forecast of some financial newspapers in the United States will fall below the price of $100 per ounce next month. But in Andrew's mind, it's not very impossible.
Looking at the current world economy, the world economy is generally in a state of recession. Gold's hedging and hedging function is still welcomed by most countries in the world. This is the supporting force of the gold price.
After some thought, Andrew made a decision. Well, to be on the safe side, then don't earn the last dollar. From next week, we will arrange to close the position and exit.