The day after Gu Kun's interview, all kinds of reports flew all over the sky.

"The first foreign exchange investment god in the port was born. ”

"Gu Kun, the giant of Lanfang, is bearish on the Thai baht market and benefits 4 billion Hong Kong dollars. ”

Some shameless media, regardless of the fact that Gu Kun is actually from Lanfang, just because he has operations in Xiangjiang and has entrusted the Asia-Pacific subsidiary of Blackstone Fund headquartered in Xiangjiang to act as an agent, they will call him a new star in the Xiangjiang investment community.

A very small number of media that received Gu Kun's personal Q&A on the same day even disclosed some detailed information:

Gu Kun told this reporter: This pullback in the Thai baht exchange rate is a return to normal value. He also tactfully criticized the previous strategy of 'forcibly binding the exchange rate with the US dollar' of the Thai baht as unreasonable, which could not truly reflect the fact that the international competitiveness of the Thai economy has declined. This bearish market is a repayment of historical debts, and should not be interpreted too panicked. ”

"The Thai baht exchange rate has temporarily stabilized since Wednesday this week and is expected to stop falling this week. Gu Kun told this reporter that he hopes that after the return of the true value of the Thai baht, the Thai tourism market can be reactivated, the attraction of Thai tourism to foreign low-end tourists can be restored, and the Thai cultural tourism industry can find its new positioning. ”

For a time, almost everyone up and down in Xiangjiang, from financial investors to ordinary melon-eating people, saw the relevant reports to a greater or lesser extent, which triggered heated street discussions.

"it! Isn't Gu Kun the world superstar? I heard that he later returned to Lanfang and became the richest man in Lanfang and a cultural and tourism tycoon, but how can he be so good at investment?"

The vast majority of the people at the bottom who have no culture eat melons are most likely this reaction.

However, as long as a social hotspot is formed, there must be a tap water crowd who likes to point out the country, free of charge to help people around them solve their doubts, and by the way, brush up on the small circle "Lao Tzu is more knowledgeable than you" sense of existence.

Some people who read a lot of high-end financial magazines and financial columns helped spread the word: "You don't have any culture when you look at it! I'm different, I read the detailed interview with Gu Kun in Dagong Bao."

The reason why Gu Kun is bearish on the prospects of Thailand's tourism and processing and export industries is because Gu Kun is a great god in these fields! You poor people have never been to Lanfang, have you? I have been there! The resorts, international conference centers, aircraft carrier theme parks, and maritime museums there are all of a good grade, and they are all Gu Kun's business!

Also, you don't know, in recent years, Li Jiapo's status as the first entrepot port in Southeast Asia has also been challenged, the Malays have joined forces with Maersk, and Gu Kun's Lanfang Port has joined forces with COSCO (COSCO), I heard that Gu Kun's Lanfang Port has risen super fast, and now Li Jiapo can only focus on container ship transit, and the business of COSCO bulk carrier transit has been robbed by Lanfang several percent.

In this case, Gu Kun is equivalent to an invisible hand that stirs up tourism, import and export shipping in Southeast Asia, and is an industrial vane. He himself and Xinmatai have a certain competitive relationship in these two fields, how can he not understand the weaknesses of his competitors? Therefore, this is called an investor who specializes in the art industry, not because people are awesome at investing in everything, but because what he invests in has something to do with his old business!"

These words are directly said in the media to be useless, and the people who eat melons can't understand them directly, and they must be passed on by word of mouth under social hot spots.

Just like in the WeChat era, some "secrets" have to be pulled into the group of "loving each other" in order to be brainwashed.

In the following days at the end of August, and even throughout September, similar topics were implanted in the minds of millions of people who eat melons in Xiangjiang and Southeast Asia in a viral way.

Everyone accepted that "Gu Kun can see it accurately, just because he really understands the opponent, and even his own construction, it will squeeze the opponent's survival prospects, so he goes short by the way." ”

This is the most dignified business competition, and no one will hate you if you make money.

It's like if you're running a company and you've developed a groundbreaking new technology, you know that when it's publicly marketed, it's going to devalue everything from an old generation of competitors.

So, if you short the shares of a competitor's company in advance, this is not illegal, and it will not attract hatred, right?

This is called the table word also set up a successful archway, not only to make money, but also to stand to make money.

……

While Gu Kun is frantically sowing smoke bombs in Xiangjiang, the anxious Thais will of course also pay attention to which forces in the international community are currently making money from the depreciation of the Thai baht.

August 28, Bangkok's Ministry of Finance.

Ministerial-level executive Zhu Lawanggong frowned and looked at a document in front of him.

In front of him, there stood a small group of confidants, and on the visitor sofa in the distance, there was also a wealthy businessman guest who had been invited.

With a muffled "snap", Chulawangkorn slapped the copy of the interview on the table, then took off his glasses and rubbed the bridge of his sore nose.

After calming down a bit, Chulawangkorn seemed to remember that there were still guests, so he put on a kind and humble expression, and asked with unhappiness:

"Mr. Xu, have you read all these reports? Do you think it is possible for us to use the last reserves to stabilize the Thai baht temporarily? What does Gu Kun mean by those words?"

(All of them speak Thai, of course)

The wealthy businessman on the sofa opposite Chulawangkorn is the richest man in Thailand and the richest man in Southeast Asia except for Xiangjiang, Xu Shubiao, the big boss of the beverage tycoon Red Bull Group.

Xu Lao is over seventy years old, an overseas Chinese born on Hailan Island in China, and later immigrated to Thailand before World War II.

Now that Thailand's finances are in crisis, Chulawangkorn also needs to invite such bigwigs to come to the town and listen to their opinions.

Xu Lao was used to seeing strong winds and waves, but he didn't rush to get angry, but replied slowly: "What Gu Kun meant, I think it's already obvious.

First of all, he expressed that he didn't want to be our enemy, just normal business competition, and felt that the tourism and entrepot industry he built in Lanfang could impact the tourism and entrepot industry in Matai, so he didn't want to waste it and shorted us.

Secondly, he also euphemistically expressed how much he thinks the baht, and even the future ringgit, is overestimated - he thinks it is more than 20%. I also think that if the Thai baht is only depreciated at 20% this time, it will be a benign depreciation, and there is still something to be done.

Because of the depreciation of 20 percent, although it will make the foreign debt planned in dollars pay off 20 percent out of thin air, the decline in international competitiveness caused by the 23 percent minimum wage we previously gave to workers can be compensated for, our exports can resume high-speed growth, and the number of foreign tourists will also increase significantly.

Finally, in Gu Kun's words, there is also a meaning of showing muscles and hoping that everyone will be in their place. He is obviously saying that compared with their Lanfang, our tourism industry in Thailand has the advantage of scale, so we should be convinced and willing to be a low-end cheap travel market for bargains. However, if we acquiesce to this division of labor, we will no longer compete with the Thai tourism industry. ”

After listening to Xu Laodong's analysis of watching the fire, Zhulawanggong's mood finally calmed down a little.

Indeed, if there is a guarantee that the exchange rate will only decline moderately, it will still be good for the Thai economy.

Currency depreciation increases exports, and this is a principle that elementary school students understand. The previous "forcibly binding the exchange rate to the US dollar" is, in the final analysis, a lazy policy, because small countries do not have enough awesome exchange rate control professionals, and they are afraid of being cheated, so it saves trouble.

Chulawangkorn himself knows how many hidden dangers have been accumulated by the binding system.

After thinking about it, Chulawangkorn asked: "Mr. Xu, do you think it is feasible to use the remaining US dollar foreign exchange to buy the Thai baht to stabilize the exchange rate when the exchange rate has fallen by 25%?"

Since Gu Kun has expressed his position, he thinks that he thinks that the Thai baht has reached a reasonable price, he shouldn't break his promise and fall into the well again, right?"

The previous defense has consumed a large amount of Thailand's dollar reserves, but it is not completely depleted, and the country always has to keep a hand.

Especially when you know that depreciation is inevitable, it is much cheaper to save some money and wait for a wave of depreciation to protect the disk than to protect the disk at the beginning-

The reason is very simple, when the original price of Thai baht, buy so many short Thai baht and sell orders, you have to give the dollar at the original price. Now that the Thai baht has fallen by 25%, if you want to sell the same amount of Thai baht, you can spend 25% less US dollars.

Any country that wants to protect the disk will distribute its foreign exchange reserves proportionally and protect the disk in sections.

Xu Shubiao pondered, and he didn't dare to give Zhu Bu a wrong consultation, so he just said cautiously: "In my experience, since Gu Kun has hinted at reconciliation in a semi-public and high-profile manner, then he should not poison the Thai baht again." Otherwise, his previous statement was a provocation and deepened hatred in vain, so it was better not to say anything.

However, Gu Kun will not be insatiable and fall into the ground, which does not mean that other international tour capital forces will not fall into the ground. The world is very diverse, and there are many short-selling forces, how much influence can Gu Kun have?

Another thing that puzzles me is that since Gu Kun has already shown goodwill and feels that the Thai baht has fallen to the head, why doesn't he close the position himself? Minister Zhu, I hope you will investigate this point carefully and make a decision, I can only remind you to come here. ”

Zhu Lawanggong nodded thoughtfully, and then sternly interrogated his subordinates: "Gu Kun has any shipment movements in the past few days? If you haven't closed the position, why don't you close the position and investigate it as soon as possible." ”

A subordinate who was eager for meritorious service hurriedly replied: "I have already investigated in advance, Gu Kun's previous order is a medium and long-term investment, at least three to six months of options, and he will not be able to close all of them until November or December." The position cannot be closed if it has not expired before. ”

"He is still doing medium and long-term investment? That seems to be a value investment, not a speculator. If you are a speculator and do it for so long, aren't you afraid of a little change in the middle and marrying someone?"

Of course, he was not a reckless person, and after that, he spent a day or two intensively, focusing on the situation.

Finally, on August 30, after he declared to the leadership, he decided to use the emergency reserve to protect the disk again.

The exchange rate of the Thai baht really stabilized over the weekend of this week, falling for seven or eight consecutive days, ushering in the first period of stability.

The relevant official media in Thailand also hurriedly released a series of reports on stability and confidence, overwhelmingly proclaiming that the Thai baht exchange rate has stabilized, and asking international hot money not to flee in a hurry.

Even Chulawangkorn applied to Thailand's Central Bank (Harmony) Bank for an emergency interest rate hike, raising the annual interest rate on Thai baht savings from 10% to 12.5% on Friday, and further to 15% on Sunday.

In his view, with the support of an annual deposit rate of 15%, it can generally offset the annual depreciation rate of more than 20%.

Because the deposit interest rate of the US dollar is very low today, even if the Thai baht is depreciating, as long as the money in the Thai bank is supported by extremely high interest rates, then those less sensitive and stable funds can still be retained, and there will be no foreign capital run.

Gu Kun has not been lifted because the option has not been lifted, so he can't close the position for the time being. However, many other investors who had tried their luck to bet on the right side before, as soon as they saw that the Thai baht was stable, they closed their positions and settled in their pockets.

For example, Boss Li Xiaozheng of Xiangjiang, and Boss Kong Shangzhong, who was previously known as the second foreign exchange investment god in the city, closed their positions and shipped when the price fell by only 25%.

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