Of course, Chen Dahe can not get involved in the U.S. stock market, but the U.S. stock market has always been the vane of the world's financial market, and this time in '87 was no exception. In the face of this stock market crash, which does not know when it will erupt, it is impossible for him to ask Jerome and Luca to stop or reduce their investment in the financial market from now on and invest in the real industry.

Chen Dahe tapped his head and walked back and forth under Oliver's strange gaze.

Let's calm down and review this stock market crash, maybe the situation is not so bad.

First of all, what was the cause of the stock market crash?

Chen Dahe happened to walk to the window, suddenly stood still, looked at the night outside the window, and recalled the little bit of unattainable knowledge.

Come to think of it, it seems to have something to do with the U.S. deficit, which should be because the deficit is higher than the analysis of major financial institutions, which makes the market pessimistic about the direction of policy.

Gloomy?

Chen Dahe frowned slightly, by the way, it is also related to a rumor, is it to cancel tax incentives or increase taxes or something?

Anyway, first the U.S. stock market hit new highs, and then under the influence of rumors, the stock market began to decline slightly, which lasted for about a week, the decline was about 9%, and then after waiting for two days over the weekend, Monday's opening did not usher in a rebound, but a massive sell-off, and finally the S&P 500 index fell 20% on the day.

The consequences?

Chen Dahe pinched his chin and frowned, the memories in his mind were getting clearer and clearer, if he was not mistaken, he should refute the rumors and cut interest rates.

That's right, it's a rate cut!

Chen Dahe snapped his fingers, and finally remembered that this powerful stock market crash had a follow-up impact, but the subsequent impact was far less than the one in 08 years in the future, because at this time, the Fed did not have too many chips in its hands.

In addition to the tax policy led by the White House, the Fed's magic weapon for dealing with the financial turmoil is interest rates, which are as high as 11 percent at this time due to inflation, and this is the result of a reduction -- the interest rate four years ago was 19 percent! Because only such a high interest rate can barely offset the negative impact of inflation.

Therefore, it only needs to lower interest rates a little bit, continue to maintain an accommodative tax policy, and re-stimulate market investment, and the Fed can fully control the impact of this turmoil to a minimum.

Thinking of this, Chen Dahe breathed a sigh of relief, that is to say, the global financial market in the eighties was clearly on the rise as a whole, how could a stock market crash collapse, well, if he really can't avoid this stock market crash, then the worst result is nothing more than to wait for one or two more years, and after the stock market rises, it will be fine, and he can also take advantage of the opportunity after the stock market crash to buy high-quality stocks at a low price to make up for his position, maybe he can make some money in the end.

After determining that the worst result is acceptable, Chen Dahe's brain is active again, if he can make a big profit, who wants to just keep his capital or make a small profit, but aside from the golden finger of memory, this kind of market analysis is indeed not his strong point, all he can do is to point out the direction, and then let other professionals devote themselves to their efforts, they just need to wait for the harvest - anyway, they can't lose, why not give it a go!

Having made up his mind, he prepared to consult with Oliver, but as soon as he turned around, he saw the girl standing a few feet away, staring at him with two eyes and looking at him curiously.

"What are you doing?" Chen Dahe blinked, "Why do you look at me like that?"

"Why do you ask me, why do I ask you?" Oliver folded his arms around his chest and looked him up and down, "Halfway through speaking, he suddenly stopped talking, and he scratched his head and patted his head nervously, running from one end to the other, are you okay?"

The corners of Chen Dahe's mouth fell, "Please, please don't look at me with such caring eyes for the mentally handicapped, thank you! I just suddenly thought of a few questions, and now that I have thought about it, we need to discuss it again." ”

"Alright," Oliver said with a shrug, turning to sit down on the couch, looking at him with his legs cocked and his head held high, "Now, please begin your show." ”

Chen Dahe rolled his eyes and stretched out a finger in the mid-emptiness, "First of all, I can only judge that there is such a financial crisis, according to the objective laws of the market, it must be avoided and will happen, but I can't judge the specific time when it will happen, maybe two years later at the latest, maybe soon, tomorrow!"

Now he really can't tell when this stock market crash will come, but at the latest it will not be later than the point in time he remembers, because the current financial market heat and deficit in the United States are higher than in the previous life, and according to normal laws, this stock market crash will only be advanced and not postponed.

"Tomorrow is impossible," Oliver smiled coldly, and said indifferently in Chen Dahe's inexplicable gaze, "Tomorrow is the weekend, and the stock market is not open!"

Looking at Chen Dahe, who was full of embarrassment, Oliver continued, "And there is no doubt about your analysis, even a primary school student who cares about the stock market knows that economic development is cyclical, and the difference is only the length of the cycle. Tomorrow to two years? Although you have shortened this time period to two years, it is still too long to be useful. ”

Chen Dahe sighed lightly, he decided to ignore someone's words, and continued his train of thought, "I just said some of the specific reasons, including overheating investment, increasing deficits, in addition, according to my analysis, every time a stock market crash breaks out, in addition to the impact of the market itself and policies, the fuse comes from the lack of confidence of investors, even when the stock market soars, they will have a kind of worry, that is, the stock market will fall at any time, so when there is something in the market that makes investors lack confidence, we must pay attention to it- The reality in the United States is that investment is overheated on the one hand, and deficits are increasing on the other, which will affect the judgment of investors, so it only takes a little spark, even a rumor, to detonate their worries. ”

Hearing this, Oliver's face finally changed, "So, what is Mars?"

Chen Dahe shrugged, "Maybe it's a tax increase, maybe it's ......"

Before he finished speaking, he was interrupted by Oliver, "It is impossible to raise taxes, as long as Reagan is in office, he will insist on a loose tax policy, otherwise there will be no fiscal deficit rising year by year." ”

"Uh," Chen Dahe swallowed and continued what he had not finished speaking, "Perhaps, it is to cancel the existing tax incentives, for example, financing tax incentives!"

Without waiting for Oliver to refute, Chen Dahe himself preemptively said, "Don't say it's impossible, I just said it, the rumors may also be Mars!"

After hearing this, Oliver closed his eyes and began to think for himself.