Chapter 847: Shorten the Cycle
For Jerome's ambitions, Chen Dahe does not have any dissatisfaction, and on the contrary, no matter how big the bank is, it belongs to him, naturally he hopes that Jerome's ambitions are as big as possible, and the other is no better than a few years ago, as the business of banks and other companies is getting bigger and bigger, he, the boss behind the scenes, will not be able to hide sooner or later, rather than continue to hide it, it is better to let these companies run wildly, run out of the momentum of thousands of troops, and the greater the momentum, the more capital he has to protect himself.
But letting the horses run wild doesn't mean letting the reins go, especially when it comes to one of the most important investment events in the next five years, and Chen must ensure that all of the company's plans are under control.
He nodded and asked, "I agree with your opinion in principle, but I want to hear your detailed thoughts, don't look back and become a joke instead of making a name for yourself." ”
"Yes sir," Jerome suppressed his excitement and said in a deep voice, "My plan is mainly two, the financial aspect, the financial aspect, with the British and American partners to form an investment fund, bullish on the Japanese stock market and foreign exchange market, the industrial aspect, as much as possible to raise funds, invest in Japanese real estate and tourism, with the upcoming appreciation of the yen, Japan's manufacturing industry will inevitably encounter Waterloo, there is no investment value, but their real estate and service industry will definitely have a good upward momentum, it is very worth investing." ”
Chen Dahe nodded, noncommittal to his plan, and instead asked, "What about risk control, what about risk control?"
Jerome raised his head and replied solemnly, "Set up a separate hedge fund to hedge risk control by gambling on stock index futures." ”
Chen Dahe pursed his lips and asked, "Can you be sure of the time?"
Hearing this question, Jerome finally hesitated a little, paused and replied, "Our idea is that we will not hedge in the first year, and from the second year, the hedging operation will be carried out based on the income of the previous year, and the entire investment period will last for seven to eight years. ”
If it is ordinary short-term speculation, half a year is considered a long time, but this is a long-term investment based on the trend of a country's economy, and according to the theory of economic waves, the cycle of eight to ten years is within the normal range value.
But Chen Dahe knows that not every reality conforms to the so-called economic laws, at least Japan's economic trend is very abnormal, if it really does what Jerome thinks, the first four years of the Third International Bank will indeed be famous with huge gains, but in the fifth year, it will close the position and stop loss, rely on the hedge fund that uses wind control to recover a little loss, and then retract back to his hometown with a lot of capital to lick his wounds.
Even the Ministry of Finance, which led the yen appreciation, would never have imagined that under the impact of global funds, it would break through the economic protective net jointly laid by the United States and Japan, and the Japanese economy would be in shambles, and it would not be able to recover for another 30 years.
Okay, maybe the Ministry of Finance is really trying to protect it, but the United States is not easy to say, and if you don't get those funds in it, you will have funds from the Federal Reserve System.
Chen Dahe reached out and picked his forehead, thought for a moment in Jerome's worried gaze, and then said, "Jerome, I basically agree with your idea, but there are two things that need to be modified. ”
Jerome instinctively sat up straight," you say. ”
"First of all, about risk control," Chen Dahe grinned, his right index finger drew a circle in the air, "In my place, there is only an all-out attack and defense, and there is no defensive counterattack, so instead of setting up an unnecessary hedge fund, it is better to invest all the funds in it to maximize the benefits." ”
"Sir," Jerome hesitated, "although there is an eighty percent chance that our judgment will come true, it is undeniable that we still need to face the Ministry of Finance, and if they intervene, then our investment will be at risk." ”
Chen Dahe smiled and stretched out his right index finger and waved it gently, "They won't, or rather, they don't dare, otherwise the Federal Reserve will teach them how to behave, how much autonomy can a country that even needs to rely on the suzerainty for its homeland security to maintain?!"
Jerome took a deep breath and nodded thoughtfully, "I kind of understand, the reason why the yen wants to appreciate is because the United States wants them to appreciate, and since the appreciation channel has been opened, the Federal Reserve will never let them stop halfway, and they don't care about what happens in the middle, anyway, it's not the United States that suffers, right?"
Chen Dahe shrugged, and when he saw that he understood, he skipped this question and didn't mention it, and then talked about the next one, "Second, the eight-year cycle is too long, shorten it somewhat, set it at five years, start from eighty-five years, and end at the end of eighty-nine years, of course, what I said is that all stocks and long contracts must be shorted before this point in time, as for the industrial and real estate parts, it can be slightly extended for one or two years, but at the latest at the end of ninety-one years, all liquidations will be achieved!"
"Five to seven years?" Jerome frowned, "sir, if we operate at this time, we may miss out on the craziest dividend of the Japanese stock market." ”
The craziest thing about any round of stock market surge is not when the total value is low in the early stage, but at the moment when the stock price is about to crash, the stock price is like a wild horse that has broken off, and no one can control it until it falls into a cliff. But if someone can leave the moment before the reins, then the income during this time will also be the highest, of course, no one dares to play the heartbeat to the moment when they stick to the cliff, no matter how good the professional arbitrageur is, they will die!
Chen Dahe took a sip of coffee on the table and looked at him with a smile, "Maybe there is another possibility, to avoid the moment when the stock market and land prices collapse?!"
"Huh?" Jerome's eyes widened, "you mean that the stock market rally brought about by this round of yen appreciation will only last for five years?"
This is a macroeconomic plan jointly formulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve, so it won't be like this, right? The boss's idea surprised him too much!
"No," Chen Dahe pursed his lips and shook his head with a smile, "To be exact, it should be four years! According to my speculation, they should reach an agreement next year, that is, in the second half of '85, and along with it, there should be three or five major trading partners of the United States, such as Britain, France, and Germany! So according to this point in time, the Nikkei index should rise in four years." ”
"No," Jerome muttered in disbelief, "once the yen appreciates, the world will flood the Japanese market, and with such a large amount of money, the Japanese stock market will only last for four years?"
"It's because the amount of money is too large that the time will be shorter!" Chen Dahe put down his coffee, leaned forward and propped his arms on his thighs, looked at Jerome and whispered, " Don't forget, no matter how large Japan's economy is, he is only a small island country, the land is barren and resources are scarce, and today's economic strength can be earned by all the people who work hard to earn foreign exchange through industrial exports, if there is no influx of global funds, maybe they will slowly adjust their state, and the overheated domestic economy will be imported from the outside to achieve stable and good development, but it is with the entry of global travel capital, a sum of money, will definitely support this dead fat man, this is called overeating, too much, understand?!"