At the headquarters of the Bank of East Asia, Yuan Tianfan is reporting to Xu Zhi on the bank's operations during this period.

"Chairman, although we have cleared a large number of high-risk real estate loan businesses in our hands before, this plunge in land prices has still had a great impact on our bank.

The first problem is that a large number of companies and individual customers because of economic problems, apply to the bank to temporarily suspend the repayment of loans or repay the loan first, this is just a small matter, but there are too many applicants, if we do not agree, I am worried that some of these people will have the problem of breaking the capital chain, and it will be more troublesome at that time. But if agreed, this could seriously affect the bank's profits. ”

The purpose of commercial banks is actually to earn an interest margin, the most hope is that all customers can repay the loan on time with peace of mind, if the customer is interrupted, even if the means of auctioning collateral to stop the loss, but also need to invest a lot of manpower and material resources, this kind of thing, the bank has been avoiding.

Xu Zhi nodded and asked again, "Then what is the second question?"

Yuan Tianfan said: "Recently, because of the real estate crisis, many people have begun to sell stocks or cash out real estate, which has also led to the recent surge in bank deposits. ”

"I understand that, in general, it's not really a problem for us as a bank, it's a problem for the industry as a whole. Xu Zhi said with a smile.

After the local property economy kidnaps the entire regional economy, housing prices have been tied to banks and even the entire economic system, once housing prices fall, the first to be hit is the banks, followed by other industries.

Take Hong Kong as an example, when the real estate was booming, the luxury stores in Causeway Bay were full of people, and now they have long been crowded.

The Hong Kong government, the largest investor in Hong Kong, spends up to HK$10 billion a year on infrastructure projects, all of which come from the Hong Kong government's revenue.

There are two main revenues of the Hong Kong government, one is tax revenue, and the other is income from land sales.

The tax of Heung Kong Company has always been 16% of the net profit tax, that is, 16% of the net profit of a year's profits.

For individuals, there are also tiered tax payment schemes. In addition, there is an inheritance tax that changes every few years, and it is not completely abolished until the 21st century.

In addition, there are some entertainment tax, property tax, hotel rent tax, stamp duty, lottery tax, off-camera tax, etc., these varieties are numerous, but only for some specific groups of people, the tax rate is not high, and the proportion of fiscal revenue in the Hong Kong government is not large.

In the 50s and 60s, more than 60% of Hong Kong's fiscal revenue came from taxes, but now, it accounts for less than 30%, not because of the lack of taxes, but because the income from land sales is too high.

HSBC, the largest bank in Hong Kong, has a profit of almost HK$2.5 billion in 82 years, and the annual tax payment is about HK$400 million, which is not enough to cover the total price of an ordinary residential land in Kowloon.

When the real estate crisis broke out, the Hong Kong government was the most affected, because the income from land sales plummeted, and even could not be sold, so it had to shrink various infrastructure investments in an instant.

A large number of government projects have been closed, and real estate companies have slowed down the pace of investment, which will inevitably cause a large number of construction workers to lose their jobs or their incomes to plummet, in which case everyone naturally tightens their wallets and refuses to spend.

It is impossible for money to rust at home, and the choice of ordinary people is naturally to deposit money in the bank, but because of the recession of commerce and real estate, part of the money in the hands of the bank has suddenly disappeared.

"Yes, most of the banks have this problem at the moment. Yuan Tianfan replied that in fact, the Bank of East Asia is much stronger than other banks, as early as more than a year ago, it began to clean up a large number of high-risk housing loans in its hands, and stopped lending projects with several small real estate companies in a timely manner, which has avoided a lot of potential risks for the bank.

Other banks have more or less some mortgage projects that will become dead accounts at any time, and if they encounter a real estate company with a lot of debts and no turnover, they will face a greater risk, and if they don't pay attention, they may be caught in.

Xu Zhi thought for a while and smiled: "Actually, these two problems are very simple to solve, if we lend these surplus funds to those customers who are temporarily difficult to repay, wouldn't it kill two birds with one stone?"

"Lend these people another sum of money?" Yuan Tianfan was stunned for a moment and asked, "If that's the case, wouldn't our risk be even greater?"

Xu Zhi said with a smile: "Xiangjiang has broken out several real estate crises in the past few decades, although each time has been described by many people as the end of the world, but in fact, this state of low land prices will last for two or three years at most, and after the land price is restored to a reasonable position, it will slowly rise again, as long as it stays up to that time, the difficulties of all industries will be lifted, as long as there is a house in hand now, this property will be hard currency in the future, don't worry about lending money to them." ”

Yuan Tianfan asked: "What does the chairman mean that the housing prices in Xiangjiang will rise to higher than the housing prices at the beginning of the year in the future?"

"There is no highest, only higher. Xu Zhi said with a smile.

"In previous years, every time land prices fell, there was indeed a strong rebound, but this time it was different from the previous times, and the problem now is not just economic. Yuan Tianfan said vaguely.

Xu Zhidao: "The mainland government has long put forward the strategy of "one country, two systems, and Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong, what are you worried about?"

Yuan Tianfan said: "I'm not worried about the political problem, and considering whether the new Xiangjiang government will carry out special control over the real estate market in the future, the simplest one, if the new government approves a large number of new land, I am afraid that the real estate market will never turn over." ”

For a long time, the housing prices in Hong Kong have been considered to be low and too crowded, but in fact there is no such thing at all.

Although the population of Xiangjiang is large, the land area is not small, excluding some mountains and nature reserves, the area that can be inhabited by people is actually as high as more than 200 square kilometers.

But the reality is that in the 21st century, the total area of land developed for residential and commercial use in the entire Xiangjiang is only 77 square kilometers, which is actually the interest demand of monopoly consortiums.

Assuming that the new government allows the development of a large amount of land, housing prices will inevitably plummet, and the new governor after 97 is this idea, but unfortunately it will fail in the end, otherwise, the future generations of Xiangjiang will become better.

Xu Zhi shook his head and said: "You think too much, Tianfan, you are a top student at Cambridge University, and I definitely can't say anything about you in terms of data."

However, when I look at the future housing prices of a place, I do not look at the balance of supply and demand, market demand, I only look at one thing, that is, how much of the income from auctioning land in this place accounts for the ratio of the entire fiscal revenue.

Over the years, in order to build Hong Kong into a low-tax free port, the British government has basically given up tax revenue, and can only rely on auctioning land to obtain financial funds, otherwise, the entire government system will not be able to support it at all.

The attitude of the mainland government towards Hong Kong is that everything will remain unchanged, and this fundamental matter that has a bearing on the operation of the Hong Kong government will not change. ”

"It's still the chairman who thinks about it comprehensively. Yuan Tianfan nodded and said, "Then I will immediately arrange someone to count the people who need to refinance." ”

"Well, but not everyone can apply for this loan, although this is also a business, but I only provide it to those who actually buy a house for their own use, and no penny is allowed to anyone who speculates on the property. Xu Zhi said.

"Okay, no problem, the bank's professionals in this area will definitely do their best to find out. Yuan Tianfan assured with a smile.

Xu Zhi nodded and said with a smile: "Okay, then let's do it first, you go and arrange it, and go out with me in the afternoon, Bao Fuda and Chen Songqing want to talk to us about the loan." ”