Chapter 191: Analysis

"Of course, we still have to make sure that there are enough outstanding shares in the market, so that a virtuous circle can be formed.

"As for the stock investment fund invested by Yan Huang, when Cisco's matter is over, presumably the Japanese stock market will also close. At that time, I will give you two billion funds, and as for how to invest, I believe in your vision. ”

Speaking of the Internet industry, Zheng Yan is very familiar with the development trajectory of the next 20 years. But for the stock market, Zheng Yan only knows a few major historical events.

Unless there is another opportunity like the collapse of the Japanese stock market, Zheng Yan is not prepared to interfere with Bill Miller's investment.

Zheng Yan didn't want to be misled by Bill Miller to make a wrong judgment when investing.

"No, Zheng Yan, I still want to hear your opinion. At least I don't have the courage to short the Nikkei, let alone yours. ”

"As you know, because of the collapse of the Japanese stock market, investors around the world are wary of the stock market, and now I am a little uncertain. ”

"Although you don't interfere with my investment, I don't want my first investment in Yanhuang to fail. ”

Bill Miller has decided in his heart that Zheng Yan has a keen insight into the changes in the stock market. But he didn't understand at all, Zheng Yan only relied on the advantage of foresight. When it comes to majors, he can't even compare to college students who have just graduated.

Although it feels a bit like rushing ducks to the shelves, Zheng Yan also understands that he must reveal something, otherwise Bill Miller will not give up.

"Bill, presumably your future investments will be mainly focused on Wall Street, right?"

Seeing Bill Miller nodded, Zheng Yan continued: "I don't dare to assert the details, but in my opinion, the U.S. stock market should continue to rise in the next few years. ”

"In fact, the United States is the ultimate beneficiary of the collapse of the Japanese stock market. Before the collapse of the Japanese stock market, a large amount of money was brought to the United States because of the large-scale acquisition of American companies and real estate by Japanese conglomerates. ”

At the same time, because the collapse was so violent, many Japanese conglomerates had to sell these companies and real estate in exchange for funds to try to tide over the situation. ”

"In this buy-and-sell process, Japanese companies have incurred huge losses. American companies, on the other hand, have become the ultimate beneficiaries. ”

"I know about Japan because I've been working with Sony for a long time, but I don't know much about the U.S. situation. But before that, there must have been a certain bubble in the U.S. economy. ”

However, because of the frantic actions of the Japanese consortium, they are paying for the bubble in their own country's economy as well as the bubble in the U.S. economy. ”

"Therefore, we can basically conclude that the current economic situation in the United States is very good. ”

Although Zheng Yan is not clear about the specific situation, he also has simple memories of some things.

The reason for the crazy rise in Japan's stock market and real estate market can be said to have been imposed on Japan by the United States.

Because of the Plaza Accord in 1985, the value of the yen rose at a rate of 15 percent per year, which created a situation in which international investment capital invested in the Japanese stock market and real estate market without losing money.

Originally, the biggest problem of the United States was its huge fiscal deficit, but the United States took advantage of the bursting of Japan's economic bubble to frantically shear sheep, prompting a large amount of capital to flow back and relieving the pressure on the United States.

Zheng Yan used his own memory and combined with his own understanding of the actual situation to make a simple analysis of the economic form of the United States and Japan, but he really did not mention the direction of future investment. This made Bill Miller very unhappy.

"Oh Zheng Yan, of course I understand what you said. However, investors are much less enthusiastic about the stock market at the moment, and I hope to get some advice from you on where to go next. ”

As the controller of an equity fund and a successful investor, Bill Miller pays far more attention to the world's economic environment than Zheng Yan.

After all, he does not have Zheng Yan's advantage, and the investment in the stock market is too risky, of course, there is no room for sloppiness, and every investment will be analyzed thousands of times.

And what Zheng Yan said can already be found in major financial magazines, and there is really nothing new.

Zheng Yan also knew that if he didn't bring some dry goods out, it would be difficult to satisfy Bill Miller.

"Bill, actually, I don't think I need to say much more. Don't you see anything through my investment in Cisco?"

The Internet and Internet-related industries will definitely be a profitable investment direction in the next two decades. Therefore, Zheng Yan is not worried that his recommendation will appear oolong.

At present, the most optimistic are Microsoft and Apple, but Apple's stock price has been falling because of Jobs' exit, and Zheng Yan has no intention of investing for the time being.

"Of course, I know that you are optimistic about the Internet industry, but if my guess is correct, there will definitely be an investment fund dedicated to this aspect in the next Yanhuang investment. I don't think there's any need to waste energy on the same thing. ”

The rise of the Internet industry has begun to emerge, and since Microsoft created the first Internet myth, countless people have been eyeing this big cake. It's just that in the choice of direction, other investors are not as clear as Zheng Yan.

Moreover, Bill Miller does not think that his vision in this regard can surpass Zheng Yan. In the past, he invested in the stock market through market analysis, and did not invest in the future of a company like Zheng Yan.

"Bill, you're wrong. As you said, there's going to be a venture capital department in the future, and I'm in charge of it. However, I will never make a move on this investment without major changes. ”

"In this case, the benefits of stock market volatility are irrelevant to us. In addition, my energy is limited, and it is impossible for me to take care of all the companies. ”

"In short, I still say the same thing, I believe in your vision, as long as you feel profitable, then rest assured to do it. ”

"In addition, I can also tell you about the industry that I am optimistic about. In the next 20 years, in addition to the Internet industry, I think the automotive industry, energy and pharmaceutical industries are all good investment directions. ”

"But it's up to you to decide how to invest. ”

After Zheng Yan finished speaking, he closed his mouth and stopped talking. Bill Miller also understands that this is all that Zheng Yan can reveal, and he has no intention of continuing to get to the bottom of it.