419 HKD crisis(1)
The general trend of history is not so easy to change in many cases.
Although Xu Zhi plans to invest 20 billion Hong Kong dollars to revitalize the current sluggish economy of Hong Kong, the fundamental cause of the entire crisis is because of the future crisis brought about by the Sino-British negotiations and the bursting of the bubble in the real estate market.
From 1974 to 1978, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar has been stable at 4.5:1, 79 years later, the Hong Kong dollar began to depreciate slowly, and in 82 years, the Hong Kong dollar became 5.2:1 against the US dollar, but the whole depreciation process is very slow, even if it is a foreign trade business, this change is not obvious.
Until September 82, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher visited China to negotiate with the mainland on the Hong Kong issue, and this political event became the fuse that accelerated the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar.
Since September 82, a large number of wealthy people in Xiangjiang are ready to emigrate and leave, and these people will naturally no longer hold Hong Kong dollars, so they go to the bank and exchange Hong Kong dollars for US dollars.
This led to a rapid decline in the government's foreign exchange reserves, and then the Hong Kong government introduced a new law that required a sufficient justification for large-scale exchange of dollars and the approval of the Hong Kong government.
Countless scalpers began to take advantage of loopholes in the law to arrange for ordinary people to go to banks to exchange the maximum amount of foreign exchange allowed by the law, and then accumulate a small amount and sell it to people who need to emigrate at a high price.
Although the Hong Kong government is also aware of this, in order to maintain the status of Xiangjiang as an internationally recognized "free trade zone", it is only cracking down on scalpers and intermediaries, but the effect is not good, so foreign exchange reserves continue to decline.
Eventually, a large amount of Hong Kong dollars were exchanged, and the exchange rate fell sharply, which caused huge losses to ordinary people in Hong Kong, so these people joined in and began to pick up the wool of the Hong Kong government.
HSBC is responsible for the exchange of foreign exchange within Hong Kong, but HSBC is also half of the central bank, and this kind of business will also be contracted to other banks, and the foreign exchange has decreased sharply, which has caused a shortage of dollars in some banks, and finally, several small banks announced that they will suspend the exchange of dollars.
This situation is actually the same as the previous Hong Kong dollar run crisis, one for the Hong Kong dollar and the other for the US dollar.
A small bank announced that it would suspend the exchange of US dollars, and people feared that other banks would follow suit and announce the same policy, so they were more active in exchanging US dollars at other banks, which caused banks that were not nervous about foreign exchange to become nervous immediately.
Finally, in the run, the banks also stopped exchanging dollars.
The initial fears of these people who ran to exchange dollars were fulfilled by themselves.
Panic is spreading rapidly, on the black market, the dollar is becoming more and more valuable, and the Hong Kong dollar is depreciating more and more, so some stores began to mark the price in US dollars, refusing to accept Hong Kong dollars, and there was a rush to buy goods in the market, people were worried that the Hong Kong dollars in their hands would become worthless, so many large supermarkets were almost emptied.
The Hong Kong dollar crisis has officially erupted, which is the most serious crisis of confidence in the Hong Kong dollar since the opening of the port of Hong Kong in 1863.
Although ordinary banks in Hong Kong have stopped converting US dollars, HSBC, as a quasi-central bank in Hong Kong, is naturally unlikely to stop exchanging business like other private banks. The redemption window is still there, but the speed has been deliberately controlled.
As a result, there were long queues at the gates of the banks in Xiangjiang, and all of them were withdrawing their deposits and then going to the HSBC branch to exchange them for US dollars.
In fact, only a few of these people are really worried about the future of Hong Kong, and they are worried that when a large number of people sell the Hong Kong dollar, the Hong Kong dollar in their hands will also depreciate, so in order to prevent their possible losses, they also join the run team.
Again, these are the people who created the results they feared.
The panic was still spreading, and the Hong Kong government immediately ordered that it was a serious violation of the law to refuse to pay in Hong Kong dollars in all shops in Hong Kong.
Several shop owners who committed crimes against the wind were arrested, and the liquidity of the Hong Kong dollar was temporarily accepted by the public, but what made the Hong Kong government laugh and cry was that there was a phenomenon of bartering in some places, and the Hong Kong government could not do anything about this kind of thing, after all, this is not illegal, and the Hong Kong government cannot introduce a law to prevent this kind of thing, otherwise, it will become a laughing stock in the global legal community.
Even though the British government in Hong Kong wanted to disrupt the Hong Kong economy to put pressure on the mainland, this time it was clearly overplayed, and after the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate plummeted, the mainland government immediately issued a voice condemning the inaction of the Hong Kong government and Downing Street.
And Downing Street really didn't dare to let Xiangjiang's economy collapse, firstly, because Xiangjiang was still under British rule, and once this kind of problem occurred, it would seriously affect Britain's international image. The second is that the British mainland also has a lot of investment in Hong Kong, and these people also have a very large influence, and the third is that the economic activities within the Commonwealth are more close, and if there is a problem in the Hong Kong, it is likely to affect the British mainland.
As a result, Hong Kong Governor Youde convened several financial meetings in succession, and invited the heads of many large banks, such as HSBC Shen Bi and Standard Chartered Sides, to discuss a solution overnight, and even the British foreign secretary also arrived in Hong Kong to discuss the matter.
However, this kind of matter involving the exchange rate will obviously not be decided immediately, and the first task at present is to suppress this trend of run first.
Governor's House:
"Xu Sheng, please inside. An official from the Governor's Office took Xu Zhi into the Governor's office.
As the richest man in Hong Kong and holding billions of dollars, this identity will naturally attract the attention of Hong Kong Governor Youde, especially during this time, the Hong Kong government urgently needs a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange to solve the turmoil in Hong Kong.
"Hello, Sir Youde. Xu Zhi smiled politely.
Youde also stood up and beckoned, "Xu Sheng, please take a seat." ”
The two sat down, and Youde continued: "Xu Sheng, thank you for your Watsons supermarket this time, otherwise, if even the daily necessities are run out, the consequences will be unimaginable." ”
"Nothing, this is Watson's obligation, and please rest assured that Watsons has mobilized a large number of food and daily necessities from the mainland and overseas, and Hutchison's wharf is also in full operation, giving priority to the delivery of food, and will definitely do its best to ensure the daily needs of the people, and some people will not empty our supermarkets no matter how much they hoard. Xu Zhi nodded and said.
After Watsons annexed Wellcome, it almost monopolized the entire supermarket in Xiangjiang, and this run on the crisis was not only the US dollar, but also the supermarkets, but Xu Zhi was prepared to mobilize a large number of goods from the mainland, and the more some people hoarded, the more Watsons earned.
Youde nodded and said, "Okay, then I'm much more relieved." ”
Xu Zhi asked directly: "Sir Youde, I don't know what else is going on besides the supermarket?"
Youde asked: "Xu Sheng, half a month ago, you said at the press conference of the Hutchison Building that Hutchison will cash out more than $1.1 billion of General Electric shares, I don't know if this is true?"
"Of course. Xu Zhi replied affirmatively.
"Then I don't know when I will be able to transfer back to Xiangjiang?" asked Youde with some eagerness.
Xu Zhi smiled and said, "Sir Youde, in the current situation in Xiangjiang, it is difficult for me to make up my mind to transfer this fund back. ”
Youde asked: "Does Xu Sheng have no confidence in Xiangjiang? Could it be that the Hong Kong government will not be able to solve the problem of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate this time?"
"I don't know if it can be solved, but the current situation is that the price of the Hong Kong dollar is constantly falling, and from an economic point of view, it is too risky to exchange at this time, because no one knows what the future holds. Xu Zhi said calmly.
Youde frowned and said: "Xu Sheng, as the richest man in Xiangjiang, you should cooperate with the government at this time to solve the current difficulties in Xiangjiang, otherwise, if things happen to the point of no return, the biggest loss is still you local rich people who hold huge properties, isn't it?"