Chapter 281: Crude Oil Market Analysis
Internet investment is like investing in crude oil futures, just the original accumulation of capital, a huge financial institution, is the guarantee to ensure that a family stands, so in Zheng Yan's heart, Yanhuang investment to a certain extent, the importance of more than some Internet investment.
"Okay Bill, I've got the general picture. Next, Yanhuang Investment will continue to recruit people, but what we need is managers. As long as the time is right, we will establish branches in other countries and regions, and the specific scale is up to you. The pace of expansion can't be too fast, but it can't be too slow, and I'm allowed to make mistakes at first, as long as it's not an unforgivable one, I'll accept it. ”
"As for crude oil futures? ”
Finally mentioned the issue he was most concerned about, Bill Miller hurriedly said: "You should know all my thoughts, I just don't understand a little, so I want to know your thoughts even more, do you think the Kuwaiti problem can be resolved peacefully?"
"On the contrary, it seems to me that the outbreak of war is already inevitable. The deadline given to Iraq by the Allies is 15 January, and I am confident that war will inevitably begin as soon as this time passes. At least based on the current situation, I don't see any other possibilities. ”
Hearing Zheng Yan's answer, Bill Miller became even more strange, "In that case, why did you prevent me from investing in crude oil futures?"
"Bill, as far as I know, the price of crude oil should be around $32 a barrel right now, right?"
Seeing Bill Miller nodded, Zheng Yan continued: "At the beginning, because of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the highest price of crude oil exceeded forty US dollars, and the reason why this happened was because it happened too suddenly, and the oil production of Iraq and Kuwait was too important. ”
"To put it mildly, the world today can't function without oil, so people's panic about the lack of oil will raise the price of crude oil to an alarming level. However, even so, the price of crude oil fell back to $32. ”
"There is only one reason for this, and after this period of market reflection, even if the crude oil production of Iraq and Kuwait is affected, it can still meet the demand for oil. In this case, how much impact do you think it would have on the price of crude oil even if there were another war?"
Bill just thinks that Zheng Yan's analysis has some truth, but Sally Kraucek is different, since she met Zheng Yan, Zheng Yan left her with the impression that she was not very serious, and very lustful, she had never seen Zheng Yan analyze a matter so seriously, she suddenly felt that Zheng Yan was full of charm at this time. This also confirms a saying in Huaxia, the lover's eyes are full of Xi Shi.
"Zheng Yan, I admit that what you said makes sense. But don't forget that there is still a fear of oil shortages, but because of the current stalemate, there has been no major change in the price of crude oil, and it is unlikely that the price of crude oil will continue to remain stable once the war breaks out. ”
"I invested in crude oil futures this time, not to get a few hundred percent of the income like last time, but I think it is relatively stable, at least the possibility of loss is not great. I think it's not just me, but many investors and investment institutions nowadays have this kind of thinking. ”
If it weren't for Zheng Yan who had known about the development of history for a long time, I am afraid that it would have been this kind of thinking, but the crux of the matter is that Zheng Yan had known it for a long time.
"Bill, I remember Lenin saying that truth is often in the hands of a few. The reason why we had the biggest slice of the cake last time is because everybody doesn't believe that the price of crude oil will go up. The business opportunity that most people are optimistic about is not a business opportunity at all, and it is likely to be a big hole. ”
"I also know that most people think that once a war breaks out, the price of crude oil will go up, and it is not impossible to surpass the price of the last time, but I don't think so. If I had to choose, I would bet that the price of crude oil would fall!"
Halfway through Zheng Yan's words, Bill Miller guessed what he thought, but when Zheng Yan said it, Bill Miller couldn't help but be taken aback. The last time I invested in crude oil futures, although the possibility of making a profit is not very large, the possibility of losing is also very small, and this time it is different.
"Zheng Yan, if I don't listen to you this time, let's give up the investment in crude oil futures. ”
Although Bill Miller believes in Zheng Yan's investment vision, the risk this time is too high, and he even regrets it a little, Zheng Yan had no intention of continuing to invest in crude oil futures, or he made Zheng Yan interested.
"Bill, you don't have to be nervous, I'm measured. When Iraq invaded Kuwait, many people thought that Iraq's military strength was very strong, but what if several major powers attacked Iraq together? How long do you think Iraq would last? Therefore, even if a war breaks out, it will end in a short time. In other words, Kuwait will soon be able to regain its sovereignty and continue to produce crude oil. ”
"In addition, the last time crude oil prices soared, the biggest impact was actually the major oil companies, and these oil companies are basically in several developed countries. In other words, the final impact is still shared among these countries. ”
"We all know that the reason why countries around the world are so concerned about Kuwait's problems is to stabilize the price of crude oil, so they must not want to have a sharp rise in crude oil prices. ”
"Now that the war has not yet begun, U.S. forces have been deployed near several major oil fields in Saudi Arabia to prevent damage to the oil fields and ensure sufficient crude oil production. I believe that this is just the first step, and there will definitely be other actions to come. ”
"We couldn't predict everything, but that information alone was enough for us to take a gamble. ”
Bill Miller finally saw Zheng Yan's stubborn side again, but through Zheng Yan's analysis and Zheng Yan's miracles, his confidence began to grow.
"Zheng Yan, in that case, then you mean that we choose to short crude oil futures? If that's the case, how much money do we invest this time?"
"Isn't there still 3.5 billion in the account, so I will take out another 1.5 billion to make up 5 billion. However, this investment must be carried out secretly, not in the name of Yanhuang Investment, Yanhuang Investment is too eye-catching. ”
Zheng Yan is not sure how many people are paying attention to Yanhuang Investment, and how many people can be affected by Yanhuang Investment's decision is even more unknown.