Chapter 17 Copying China

Who is Carlyle?

While the whole Chinese people passively recognized the name with a blank face, Han Hao realized the power of this American investment fund through more channels.

During the Asian financial crisis in '98, when South Korea's financial industry was at risk of bankruptcy, Carlyle Capital bought Hanmi Bank, the seventh largest bank in South Korea, at a bottom-up price. Immediately after that, he poached from Citibank to operate, and finally turned around and sold it to Citibank for cash, and withdrew in less than 3 years with a net profit of $2 billion.

Ford was stuck in a tire gate and had to sell its star company after a punitive recall policy caused a large loss. Hertz is one of Ford's money-making hens, bringing Ford more than $360 million in profits in 2004. In order to obtain liquidity, Ford sold Hertz rental cars to the public, and the Carlyle Capital and Merrill Lynch jointly won the car for $15 billion. It is reported that Carlyle and Merrill Lynch are ready to join forces to package Hertz Car Rental to re-market in a year, and Carlyle will receive no less than $1 billion in revenue from this deal alone.

From the above cases, it can be seen that Carlyle Capital has a great sense of smell, looking for low-valued assets in the global market to repackage and then arbitrage exit, and the project is undoubtedly not calculated at the level of 100 million US dollars.

Now they are coming to China and buying XCMG for 2 billion yuan, which can be packaged and sold to guarantee at least 100% of the return, and they internally estimate that the return on the project is more than 300%.

In fact, XCMG was just an appetizer for Carlyle, who quickly opened their mouths to take a 24.9 percent stake in China's third-largest insurer, Pacific Insurance, for just $400 million.

At this time, China's financial industry was undergoing large-scale structural reform, and the five major state-owned banks and three major insurance companies were all aiming to go public and establish a modern management mechanism to bring in strategic investors.

Carlyle Capital was fortunate to ride this opportunity, and together with Prudential Insurance Group, they acquired a quarter of Pacific Insurance as a strategic investor.

From ancient times to the present, what industry is the easiest to make money?

Of course, it is the industry that deals with money, the pawnshop of the money village in ancient times, and the banking, insurance, and securities industries are all the fields with the highest yield.

From the United States, a country with a highly developed financial industry, to China, which is relatively primitive, and especially to see the Chinese government reforming the financial market, Carlyle was as excited as Columbus was about discovering the New World. China's financial market is full of gold, as long as you plug in at will, the return on capital obtained is a once-in-a-century occurrence.

Originally, CPIC was not Carlyle's first choice in China's financial market, and they preferred to participate in the reform of China's five major state-owned banks and become a strategic investor.

You casually pull a Chinese to ask, will the Industrial and Commercial Bank or the Construction Bank go bankrupt?

The other person must look at you with contempt, and then give a determined negative answer.

Although China's five major state-owned banks have a large number of bad debts, and the average bad debt rate of public data has dropped from 40% to 26.12% after the government allocates bad debts, which still meets the international standard for the edge of technical bankruptcy, neither the Chinese government nor hundreds of millions of people think that they will go bankrupt.

This surprised Carlyle Capital and strengthened its determination to invest in China, because Bank of China has a strong endorsement from the Chinese government.

China's new round of state-owned enterprise reform began in the mid-90s, and it has been 10 years since then.

In 1999 and 2003, the Chinese government wrote off a total of 2.84 trillion yuan of bad debts, benefiting from the rapid economic development, and in 2004, the Chinese government's fiscal revenue reached 2.5 trillion yuan, and it will take at least 10 to 20 years to digest these bad debts.

In view of the rapid growth of bad debts, the Chinese government can no longer afford to use the power of the government to bear the consequences of the debt, and must carry out a thorough reform of China's financial industry.

Therefore, in accordance with the top-level design of the financial industry by the State Council, international strategic investors were introduced, and the road of overseas listing was taken, so as to completely transform the bloated, large and inefficient state-owned financial enterprises from both capital and management.

In fact, this is to use external forces to force reform and embark on a path of financial reform with Chinese characteristics.

Unlike XCMG, which is related to the country's economic security, the reform of the financial industry is related to the country's capital, and the slightest mistake is related to the well-being of hundreds of millions of Chinese.

China's financial sector is in dire need of reform, but the government has run out of money to continue investing, and the country is in a shortage of funds.

The shortage of funds is not a shortage of RMB, and the country cannot start the money printing machine to print money regardless of the national conditions, which leads to a sharp depreciation of the RMB and causes inflation. For example, now 8 yuan for 1 dollar dollar, then 10 times more RMB, 80 yuan can still only be exchanged for 1 dollar.

The Chinese government has made a strategic choice to let the five major state-owned banks and insurance companies go public overseas, absorb international capital to fill the funding gap, and at the same time introduce advanced Western banking and insurance company management mechanisms into China and use external forces to force reform. In any case, live first, and then think about economic gains and losses.

In fact, this also gives foreign capital the best opportunity to buy the Chinese market.

American capital such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Carlyle came, European capital such as UBS, Allianz, and Royal Bank of Scotland came, and Asian capital representatives Singapore's Temasek and Japanese capital also came, followed by a Hong Kong consortium dominated by the richest man in China, Lee.

CCB, which was the first to prepare for the IPO, chose Bank of America as a strategic investor, accounting for 9.1% of the shares with $2.5 billion. Then HSBC took a stake in Bank of Communications, Bank of Su and UBS took a stake in Bank of China, Goldman Sachs and Allianz took a stake in ICBC, and Temasek and Hong Kong consortiums followed suit.

Unfortunately, such a food feast lacks the figure of private capital in Chinese mainland, and even Han Hao cannot afford to enter such a capital feast. It can only be said that it is bad luck, when he has not yet understood the power of capital, the country's financial reform has already sounded the gong, and the referee has announced the end of the game when he is still warming up.

It is also this large-scale national financial reform that makes Han Hao realize the true strength of capital, which can make a strong government bow its head to a certain extent.

What is the valuation of China's five largest banks under management of billions of assets?

As China's economy begins to take off, even the most conservative investors can see a golden future for money.

For example, Bank of America invested $2.5 billion in the bank, with a conservative return of more than 300%. If China's economy continues to develop, a 1,000% rate of return is not a delusion, this is the charm of China.

According to CCB's actual control and market influence in China's economy, it acquired 9.1% of the equity for 2.5 billion US dollars, and there is a suspicion that the equity was sold at a low price. However, under the reform goal of the five major state-owned banks, which is only allowed to succeed and not fail, selling at a low price may be a price that has to be borne by others.

Carlyle Capital failed to enter the ranks of China's top five investors due to its limited strength, but it picked up another wallet in the insurance industry, and Pacific Insurance is still an attractive piece of fat.

They acquired a 24.9% stake in Pacific Insurance for only $400 million, securing the status of a strategic investor in the Chinese insurance market industry at a very good price.

In just a few years, the "retreat of the country and the advancement of the people" has become "the retreat of the country and the advance of the foreigners", which is in essence the pursuit of capital, and the large-scale entry of foreign capital into the country, China's weak private capital cannot compete with it.

However, this is only the whole thing, and there are exceptions on the individual level. At least for Han Hao, after years of accumulation, he has the ability to fight with foreign capital.

Since the gluttonous feast in the financial field cannot participate, it can only retreat to the next best thing to make a difference in the industrial field and repel the invasion of foreign capital.

Carlyle was so well-known in the country that XCMG was constantly questioning its endangerment of national security, so they had to revise the plan for the merger and acquisition of XCMG, greatly reducing the shareholding ratio from 85% to 55%, and increasing the share of state-owned shares, but still failed to get the approval of the Ministry of Commerce.

51%——50%——49%......

No matter how much they kept making concessions, the Ministry of Commerce just stuck and didn't approve the merger case, and Carlyle Capital finally realized that things were not good.

Because at this time, they ushered in the most powerful competitor in the Chinese market, the largest local private enterprise - Zhonghua Group came forward to compete for the deer of XCMG.

Carlyle Capital quoted 2 billion yuan for 85% of the equity, while under the same conditions, China Group directly quoted 3 billion yuan, and even had a replacement plan of 2 billion yuan for 60% of the equity, and promised to access Yuchai engine to promote XCMG to develop more special vehicle projects, and finally promised to assist XCMG to land on the Hong Kong stock market.

It can be said that Han Hao's plan is directly aimed at Carlyle Capital, and they have gone further in their plan, adding more details that are more in line with the needs of the Chinese government.

When the Zhonghua Group announced its intervention, it was supported by domestic public opinion, after all, it is better to sell to the Chinese than to let the Americans control XCMG.

The Ministry of Commerce's failure to approve it for a day proves that the agreement signed by Carlyle and XCMG has not really taken effect, and Zhonghua Group may catch up.

Compared with an investment fund like Carlyle, the China Group, which made its fortune in industry, is more convincing to be able to integrate XCMG effectively.

The emergence of Zhonghua Group not only made Carlyle Capital taste bitter water, but also made private machinery companies like Sany Heavy Industry feel uncomfortable.

For Sany, they hope that they will integrate XCMG, the industry leader, by themselves, and they have the opportunity to make a move after seeing the merger and acquisition of Carlyle. Unexpectedly, the Zhonghua Group suddenly came out, adding an unusually powerful competitor out of thin air. Not only in this bidding case, if Han Hao gets his wish, then the domestic machinery industry will suddenly emerge as a new leading ruler.

You must know that Zhonghua Group can fight back and forth with foreign giants in the fiercely competitive automobile field, and once it enters the relatively small machinery industry, it will definitely make a big difference. Sany was not afraid of XCMG, which had a state-owned enterprise background, by virtue of the flexible institutional advantages of private enterprises, but in the face of Zhonghua Group, which has the same private enterprise mechanism and stronger capital and technology, they admit that they have almost no chance of winning.

The signal from the central government quickly reached the local government, and the cooperation with Carlyle was very good, and they quickly actively looked for alternative targets, and Zhonghua Group was indeed a very good ideal target, at least a Fortune 500 company.

Ten years after vigorously shouting the slogan of "the country retreats and the people advance", the reform of state-owned enterprises has entered a deep-water period, and once the monopoly state-owned enterprises have taken a breath, the situation will usher in a strong counterattack. Maybe it is the last wave of dividends at the moment, but fortunately, this time the bonus tail was caught by Han Hao.

Within a year, stepping on the corpses of Greencore and Delong, Han Hao took advantage of the fire to rob and collect the prey they had obtained from the tide of retreat and people's advance, Yaxing and Hunan Torch. Subsequently, it took advantage of its capital to target Yuchai and XCMG, and seized the food from overseas capital such as Hong Leong Group and Carlyle Fund, opening up new industrial chains and creating new growth points, laying the industrial foundation of Zhonghua Group in one fell swoop.

It can be said that in 2005, Han Hao's career and love were both bumper, not only getting married and starting a family, but also bringing Zhonghua Group to a higher level.

However, he was also targeted in another form. ()

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