"This week, the U.S. dollar rebounded against both European currencies and commodity currencies, and the euro and the pound against the dollar have launched technical adjustments from their recent relative highs, with a range of about three percent. USD/USD/Footbasin did not rebound significantly.

Although the US dollar has been slightly stronger overall this week, it is expected to return to weak consolidation after a brief technical rally... ”

"I don't agree with that!"

As the meeting progressed, the discussion became more and more enthusiastic, the discussion on gold fell behind, and the foreign exchange market became the focus of the meeting.

Arthur was optimistic about this, encouraging everyone to argue, smiling at an analyst who had just spoken, and smiling: "Scott, tell me what you think." ”

"Okay, boss. Ladies and gentlemen, the U.S. economic data released today is believed to have been seen by everyone, generally outperforming, which undoubtedly raised investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates early, the dollar on Friday the 11th, the overall market strengthened sharply, the dollar index once hit a one-month high, and the euro fell below the 1.4600 mark against the dollar, and once hit a two-month low.

The Department of Commerce announced on Friday that U.S. retail sales rose 1.3 percent m/m in November, compared with an expectation of only 0.7 percent, while core retail sales rose 1.2 percent m/m versus 0.4 percent expected.

A report released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer confidence rose in early December and reached its highest level since September. The dollar was already on the upswing after the retail sales data, and after the release of the consumer confidence data, the dollar rallied almost "crazy", and the euro fell below the 1.4600 mark against the dollar, hitting a minimum of 1.4586, the lowest since early October. ”

The analyst, Scott, spoke eloquently, and all kinds of data were at his fingertips to support his point, and both Arthur, the boss, and the rest of the room listened intently to his analysis.

"The strong retail sales data and the subsequent stronger-than-expected consumer confidence data further supported the dollar's strength. The market has been heavily shorting the US dollar for some time, but as the US economic outlook improves, shorting the US dollar has become less attractive to investors.

So, I think today's rally in the US dollar could be the beginning of further improvement in USD sentiment in the future. As long as more US economic data supports the view that the recovery is further established, the dollar will rise further in the near term. ”

Scott's analysis was very in place, and it was also agreed by many people present, one of the analysts whispered to the discussion, and said: "I fully agree with Scott's analysis, the previous strong US data will improve investors' risk appetite sentiment, leading to the strengthening of high-yield currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar." However, better US data has strengthened investors' expectations of an early rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which could help the dollar rise.

Let's not forget that the rise in US Treasury yields has also helped the dollar rebound, especially against the dollar. The outlook for the US dollar is improving. ”

Arthur nodded in a deep voice, he was not biased towards xing, to be honest, he felt that these views of his subordinates were very reasonable, because everyone could come up with theories and data to support their views, and in this case, he couldn't express his position easily.

Therefore, he turned his attention to Angela, an investment and financial advisor who had been listening since the beginning of the meeting and had not expressed any opinions and opinions, and asked with a smile: "Angela, what do you think?"

With Arthur's question, the originally noisy conference room immediately became quiet, and everyone turned their attention to Angela, a key figure who had completely become the young boss's right-hand man.

And Angela took everyone's gaze calmly, and said with a calm smile: "Boss, the U.S. data recovery information, such as the unemployment rate falling or something, will indeed strengthen the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates in advance, which is also the logic that led to the rebound of the dollar in the stage."

But I think that this process is only technical, it will not be very strong, and it will not last long. And the market sentiment caused by the turmoil is normal, after all, the market has been rising for 9 months since March.

I am skeptical that the U.S. economy is stabilizing. Because at the end of October, nine U.S. banks failed in a single day, setting a new record since the financial crisis, which undoubtedly exposed that the loose monetary conditions could not offset the liquidity pressure of the U.S. banking industry, and the problem of non-performing loans is still weakening the banking industry's ability to lend.

Fundamental concerns will constrain the recovery of private demand. The deleveraging of households and the financial sector has not been smooth, and although the household savings rate in the United States is rising, the debt ratio is not falling. Now it seems that the so-called "consumer deleveraging" is a dead end of rebalancing, and it will not lead the US economy to equilibrium.

More critically, a weak dollar will drive up the cost of running in traditional industries as a whole. In other words, only by soaking traditional resources and energy in "water" can we fundamentally ensure that a large number of investments continue to flow into a low-carbon economy, and fully guarantee the safety of these investments.

Only "re-industrialization" can achieve the path of disposable income growth, and the emergence of new wealth can reduce the debt ratio of households and countries. It's strategy. Therefore, before the United States completes its new strategic layout, the global economy will be immersed in the "ocean" of flow for a long time.

Of course, there must be a premise for the above logic, a weak dollar and inflation must be manageable. It depends on the ability of the Americans and whether the market's expectations actually show up. Now it seems that this possibility exists.

This may be a long-term process. I really can't believe that the bubble will burst in 2010, and it may not be in 2011, so it's hard to say in the future. Until the new economic factors are established, the global commodity and emerging market asset bubbles will not really burst, and of course there will be turbulence, and even the phases will be very violent, but in general, the prices of assets and commodities will become very expensive.

At the same time, the volatility of the stock will be great because it is not an asset in the general sense of the word, but to some extent an emotional reaction to the volatility of asset prices.

It depends on whether investors dare to extrapolate the short-term performance improvement to capitalization, which is the key to the new upward valuation shift.

If the market agrees that this improvement is phased, and that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the future, this growth becomes economically meaningless.

Maybe the market is short-sighted and irrational, and is willing to deal with uncertainty as a certainty, then there is no way, but this money-making model belongs to zero-sum, and it depends on who is the last person to take the hit.

To sum up, my view is that the dollar will continue to weaken, this is the strategy formulated by the bald eagle, even if there will be a rebound in the short term, it will not change the general trend, gold will still be the main safe-haven investment option, assets will become more and more expensive, the European debt crisis will become more and more intense, the euro will continue to depreciate, the bearish outlook for the exchange rate remains unchanged, the target is 1.448 and may even rush to 1.4280. ”

Angela's series of analyses and conclusions caused a brief silence in the conference room, and then there was a variety of discussions, and people got together in twos and threes to discuss some of Angela's views.

Arthur, on the other hand, nodded at Angela with appreciative eyes and said, "Wonderful analysis!"

I have to say that Angela's conclusions are basically the same as the development trend in his memory, which is very rare in Arthur's opinion. At least in the future, he doesn't have to worry about Angela's ability, and he is worried that what he believes is not human.

This meeting about the strategy for the coming year lasted for more than three hours, and it was not until near lunchtime that the meeting ended, and this meeting also brought many surprises to Arthur, especially in combination with his memory, which made him full of confidence in his team.

The future is promising!