Chapter 974: Strategic
On the other hand, back in the early eighties, the United States, the number one and only adversary of the Soviet Union, noted the growing volume of oil exports from the Soviet Union, and the accompanying imports of grain and industrial raw materials.
It is clear that the Soviet Union's dependence on oil is becoming more and more deep, and if the Soviet Union is to be hit, oil is undoubtedly a very good breakthrough.
So, an artificial oil price war will finally begin!
It sounds like a head, but the above analysis is all an afterthought.
Although Chen Dahe knew that there was an oil price war in the 80s, he did not remember exactly when, after all, this kind of financial fluctuation with limited impact on the world economy has occurred many times in history, and not every time it has been as famous as the Plaza Accord, the Asian financial crisis, and the subprime mortgage crisis in the first decade of the new century.
All he could do was to let Liu Jianjian's people keep an eye on OPEC, which is headquartered in Vienna, the capital of Austria; after all, if they want to fight a price war, no matter who their opponent is, the other side will definitely be them! If they are watched, they will know when the price war will come.
Just two days ago, when he set off for Xiangjiang, Liu Jianjian's information was finally handed to him, and at the same time as this information, it was a background information based on the above content.
In August, the United States sent people to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia, an important member of OPEC, to help OPEC regain market share in response to the decline in Soviet oil production, Saudi Arabia will quickly start to increase crude oil production, now Saudi Arabia's oil exports are less than two million barrels per day, and their goal is 10 million barrels!
A five-fold increase means that the price will fall by more than 50%!
When Liu Jianshe got this information, it had been a full week since the United States and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement, after all, he was eyeing Vienna, not Saudi Arabia, and he could get this information because Saudi Arabia had to inform other member states, so he found out the news, plus the data was collected, sorted out and transmitted, and when it reached Chen Dahe's hands, it was close to mid-September.
This is why Chen Dahe must summon Jerome and Luca, because they have to be divided.
Chen Dahe shook his wine glass and chuckled at Jerome and said, "You are right, OPEC has long hated the Soviet Union for grabbing their market share, but have you ever wondered why they have not taken action in the past five years and have not taken action until now?"
Hearing this, Jerome took his coffee and fell into contemplation again, and after a while, he raised his head to look at Chen Dahe and asked inquiringly, "Is it because someone has supported them?"
"Bingo," Chen Dahe's empty right hand snapped his fingers, "Then guess who this person will be?"
You don't have to guess at all.
Jerome took a sip of coffee and said with a smile, "Of course it's the United States, and there is no other country besides them that allows OPEC not to worry about the threat from Eastern Europe." ”
"That's right!"
It sounds like Chen Dahe is asking nonsense, but his purpose is very clear,
Drinking all the red wine in the cup, Chen Dahe said with a smile, "So, where is the main battlefield, is it clear?"
"Of course," Jerome said with a shrug as the smile on his face grew, "not only that, but I also understand why you must have come here in person, because our main battlefield is in Japan!"
As soon as the words fell, the two looked at each other and smiled.
Quite simply, since this price war was initiated by the United States, it means that there are unlikely to be too many long buy orders in the US crude oil futures market.
Futures are like a gamble, some people bet on falling, some people bet on rising, and the market is the place where the transaction is matched.
Of course, it is an ally on the surface, but in fact, it is a fat Japan, and when the US financial institutions need profits, they can't go to the traditional European allies, and they are not vegetarians, and the United States has to rely on them to block the front line in front of the Soviet Union.
Looking at Japan again, the Japanese consortium that is now thriving economically is waving money, eager to buy the whole world, and they are in a period of rapid development, so that there are still a lot of crude oil orders on the Tokyo Industrial Products Exchange, and these are the goals of some European and American investors, and they are also Jerome's goals.
The goal was determined, but Chen Dahe did not end the conversation, but poured another glass of red wine, walked to the glass window with his back to the sea view outside, and said softly, "Jerome, how much money do you plan to invest in oil futures?"
Jerome squinted his eyes and thought about it, and did not immediately give a number, but said, "Boss, I think, this operation does not have to invest a lot of money, according to my estimates, even if Japan receives the news later, but they will get the news sooner or later, so most of the orders that will be received in the futures market are some small and medium-sized investors, and betting against such people, even if they win, there is not much money, so, 200 million US dollars, ten times the leverage should be enough, if it goes well, you can have twice the income, or lower." ”
The futures market does not say how much the price rises and falls, according to the amount of funds amplified by the leverage multiple, you can earn the corresponding proportion of money, the main thing is to see how much margin they can lose on the person who bets, and what they lose is what you earn, so even if it is a 50% decline under ten times leverage, Jerome's expectation of profit is not very high.
What he was looking forward to, on the other hand.
Seeing that Chen Dahe did not speak, Jerome continued, "The foreseeable decline in oil prices will inevitably stimulate the rapid development of industry, the price of industrial products will fall, and then stimulate consumption, forming a virtuous circle, so I think that for Japan's overall plan, on the basis of giving priority to investment in real estate and finance, we can increase investment in manufacturing, and I believe there should be good returns." ”
After listening to Jerome's analysis, Chen Dahe breathed a long sigh of relief, raised the wine glass in his hand and signaled to Jerome, "Jerome, believe in yourself, you already have the vision of a strategic investor, if you have any promising projects, don't worry about it!"
With a mere income of four or five billion US dollars, it is not worth Chen Dahe to deliberately call Jerome back, and adjusting the direction of investment in Japan is one of the fundamental purposes of his summoning Jerome.
Although he knows that in the next five or six years, the Japanese real estate stock market will usher in round after round of shocking and countless eyeballs of growth, but there are too many funds staring at this piece of fat, if most of the eggs are put in the two baskets of real estate and finance, God knows whether it will conflict with other funds, after all, the financial market is changing rapidly, if their goal is too obvious, it is not impossible to be pit by the combination of other groups of funds.
Therefore, the safest thing to do is to diversify the risk, work steadily, catch the Japanese clipper as soon as possible, and always be vigilant and try not to give others a chance.
It was only now that the summons was truly completed, but unexpectedly, Jerome gave him a surprise,
I was still thinking about it just now, Jerome was short of strategic vision, but I didn't expect that this time he basically didn't say much, just a little prompt, he finished all the things he wanted to say, and it was similar to what was written in the textbooks of later generations, it seems that Jerome's growth in recent years is not small.