Chapter 172: Prescient
On the one hand, small car companies have switched careers and withdrawn, and on the other hand, large auto companies such as Zhonghua Group, Volkswagen, and General Motors have frantically expanded their production capacity, and China's auto market has shown a contradictory structure.
By next year (2012), the domestic automobile production capacity will reach 24 million units, and with the continuous increase in sales, car companies have increased investment, and the total production capacity of automobiles in China is expected to exceed 32 million units by 2015.
What kind of numbers are applied to China's 1.3 billion people, they are all giants.
Last year (2010), the total global car sales were 72 million units, an increase of 7 million units from 2009, most of which was contributed by the Chinese market. In other words, in the developed markets of Europe and the United States, automobile sales have been saturated and have fallen into a stage of stagnation of growth, and the growth of global automobile sales mainly depends on the Chinese market.
Judging from the figures, the number of cars produced and consumed in China will reach half of the global level in a few years, which makes people feel that there is a bubble.
Will China's car sales continue to increase?
Yes!
No one denies this, but there are different opinions on how many numbers will be raised in the future, and how much capacity China needs.
It is generally reasonable to assume that the early 20 million units are normal levels, and the maximum number of units is not more than 25 million. However, now the domestic production capacity plan has exceeded 32 million units, which indicates that China's automobiles will face an oversupply situation in three years, and it also means that a large amount of investment will be wasted.
Everyone thinks that they will be the winner of the market competition in 3 years, and the planned production capacity is not worried about selling. But the market share is limited, and there will always be people who will pay the price for not having enough to eat.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued an early warning in this regard, listing the automobile industry as a surplus industry, and calling on local governments to stop rushing to invest in the automobile industry.
But this is doomed to be a futile move, and no local government will miss an opportunity stimulated by GDP.
The original production capacity of 32 million vehicles is still being increased layer by layer, and it will not stop until it reaches 40 million vehicles.
The Chunghwa Group also ushered in a busy local government investment delegation, and they all tried to invite China's largest auto companies to invest in the landing, and did not hesitate to offer jaw-dropping cabbage prices, that is, to invite auto companies to come in.
Looking at the famous big cities in the first and second tiers of China, which one does not have an automobile giant, you must know that the automobile can occupy nearly 10% of the domestic GDP of the industrial leader.
After taking Brilliance Automobile, Han Hao stopped expanding. Zhonghua Group's current existing production capacity is 6 million vehicles, and the total production capacity under construction and planning is 8 million vehicles, which has reached the ideal state in his mind. In the future, the company will focus on overseas production and complete production capacity of 3 million units. The total production and sales of the two will exceed 11 million units, which will be the future goal of Zhonghua Group.
According to Toyota's 2010 global car sales champion with 8.42 million units, whoever can reach 10 million sales in the next five years will be able to take over the scepter and become the first.
Becoming the world's No. 1 selling automobile company is Han Hao's lifelong dream, and it seems not impossible to achieve.
While other car companies stepped on the accelerator to accelerate, Han Hao shifted gears to Zhonghua Group, and he began to prepare for the transition from incremental to stock market in the future. The incremental market has a steady stream of newcomers, while the stock market requires mining upgrade dividends from old users and more stringent comprehensive consideration of products.
After the production capacity of each car company is planned to 40 million vehicles, the dividends of the incremental market will be eaten up sooner or later, and then we will have to face a more brutal competition in the stock market.
In layman's terms, it means that the current problem of whether there is or not should be solved, and the Chinese can open four rounds. In the future, we must solve the dilemma of good and bad, and let the Chinese drive the four wheels of high technology in line with the trend of the times.
Do one step, think about three steps, as the boss of the company, Han Hao is already thinking about the next 10 years. Zhonghua Group cannot only rely on the low-end market, and should take advantage of the product replacement to move into the high-end market.
If you want to enter the mid-to-high-end market, you must have unique skills and excellent skills, so that consumers are willing to pay for it.
The next-generation Zhonghua brand "Descendants of the Dragon" and Huaxia brand "Wudao Nature" two new models will be equipped with more high-tech equipment, of which the safety assistance driving system is one of the standard equipment.
The safety assisted driving technology obtained from the acquisition of Volvo has been upgraded to the Autonomous Driving Research Institute within Zhonghua Group.
In addition to the safety assistance system, the autonomous driving system that is completely detached from human control will become the future technology development direction.
In fact, autonomous driving has occupied a large position in human travel.
As we all know, airplanes can achieve autonomous cruise at high altitudes, flying directly towards a predetermined route. The subway has also achieved practical tests of autonomous driving abroad, which is enough to operate normally without human control.
In the past, car drivers were still a type of work with a high threshold, and state-owned organs and units had special driver staff. At that time, it took half a year or even a year to get a driver's license. Now in the age of automobiles, the driver's license test is also simple and fast, and it is not a dream to get a certificate in 30 days. With the advancement of technology, there is a possibility that manual labor such as driving a car may be replaced by machines.
Autonomous driving has also come into being, and it will be a revolution in human mobility.
At the beginning of the acquisition, Volvo's safety assistance team was only 400 people, but now after upgrading to the Autonomous Driving Research Institute, the number of people has expanded rapidly to 2,500 people.
According to the International Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) classification of forward-looking technologies for autonomous driving, it can be divided into six levels: L0 to L5.
L0 is completely manual operation, and the system only provides some reminder functions, such as reversing radar, reversing image, etc. L1 is a big step forward with the intervention of assisted safety systems such as blind spot monitoring, low-speed adaptive cruise control and active braking.
L1 is also a technology that Volvo is now proficient in, and it is at the leading level in the world.
At L2, the vehicle can already achieve rudimentary autonomous forwarding, allowing the driver to briefly take his hands off the steering wheel and let the car accelerate and brake on its own. However, it is still necessary to keep an eye on the road ahead and monitor the situation of the system, which dominates the entire driving process, which can be said to be a higher level of assisted safety driving.
Tesla and Chunghwa Group are investing heavily in the development of this level of technology. It includes full-speed adaptive cruise, automatic parking, active lane keeping, automatic lane changing, speed limit recognition and other functions.
In the future, Chunghwa Group's new models will be equipped with L1 technology as standard, and L2 technology will be equipped with high-level technology.
When it reaches the L3 level, it enters the level of real autonomous driving. It is also called "conditional autonomous driving", and once the system is set up, it will drive autonomously without manual operation, and humans can handle other things in the car with peace of mind. However, Level 3 still requires the presence of a steering wheel, and a human will take over the operation in an emergency.
Level 3 autonomous driving allows machines to automatically change lanes, follow and brake, while autonomously determining their driving route. In the event of an emergency, an alarm sound will sound to indicate that a human will take over the control of the car.
This level of technology is currently being developed by the cutting-edge research teams of many car companies, and there are no products that can really be put on the road for the time being.
L3 is also the direction of Zhonghua Group's heavy investment in the future, which will bring about a great change in the way human travel.
In the case of L4, the biggest feature is that the steering wheel is eliminated, and the travel is completely controlled by artificial intelligence machines, making it a "highly automated vehicle". As long as the electronic map can reach the place, that is, it is limited to the artificial construction of paved roads, the L4 class models can smoothly bring people to their destinations.
As for the highest-level L5, artificial intelligence is more powerful than human driving, which can get out of paved roads and drive autonomously in complex and harsh conditions such as fields and mountains without relying on electronic maps. Machines are more powerful than people, and this will be the ultimate goal at this stage.
Speaking of which, thanks to the high technology of autonomous driving, the automotive industry has once again been brought to a new outlet.
Unlike other auto giants that develop autonomous driving paths, Chung Wah Group has unique characteristics. In addition to the development of autonomous driving software, it is also preparing to support the development of autonomous driving chips.
In the PC era, the chip leaders were Intel and AMD, but they fell behind in the mobile phone era, being surpassed and left behind by Apple, Qualcomm, and Samsung. If autonomous driving brings about a major change in mobility, then autonomous driving chips will usher in a new ruler.
At this time, you can understand why Han Hao did not hesitate to invest heavily in the chip industry two years ago, and the more he goes up, the more he needs to master the core technology, otherwise he will be controlled by others and lose his competitiveness.
Autonomous driving requires the support of subdivision functions such as image recognition, radar monitoring, artificial intelligence AI, and driving algorithms, which is a large project of systematic integration.
In order to cooperate with the research and development of autonomous driving, Zhonghua Group launched a new product today, which will lay the foundation for subsequent development.
AutoNavi dash cam, which is a long-planned killer feature of China Group, will be used in conjunction with AutoNavi Map.
Due to the early entry into the market and the strong promotion of Zhonghua Group, AutoNavi Map has become a well-deserved king of the Chinese market, with a market share of more than 70%, beating Google and Baidu Maps successively, and taking the lead in announcing the mobile terminal free strategy to make money through value-added services.
Huge market share, with unrivaled influence. The launch of the dash cam will once again shake the domestic travel service market.
At present, for Chinese car owners, the dash cam is a new thing, and many old drivers feel that it is not necessary. However, with the large number of vehicles and pedestrians on the road, the probability of accidents is also increasing, and the demand for installing dash cams has begun to increase. At least in the event of an accident, there is no longer a need to waste half a day, and the accident can basically restore the truth.
Among them, the biggest feature of AutoNavi dash cam is that it is equipped with an image recognition chip independently developed by Zhonghua Group and its supporting algorithms, which will be able to achieve real-time interconnection management with AutoNavi map software on the mobile phone.
This time, AutoNavi released a new product, a total of two models.
One is the ordinary model, the size of a camera, the price is 699 yuan, which is enough to compete with the 2,000 yuan dash cam on the market.
This is a product that any car owner can buy separately with confidence, as long as you download the AutoNavi map software on your mobile phone, you can manage it through WiFi connection, and you need to hang it on the front windshield of the car.
The second is the car-machine connection tachograph, which is exclusively used by the cars of Zhonghua Group.
The dash cam is connected to the car navigation system and can be installed directly at the factory. In addition, it can also be connected to the mobile phone Gaode map, and it also comes with a reversing image, which can be described as a three-in-one product.
The price has also been increased to 2999 yuan, which can be required by the original factory when buying a car in a 4S store, or it can be equipped with standard equipment on some high-end models.
In the future, with the advancement of technology, AutoNavi dash cam does not rule out further price reduction, so as to rapidly expand the popularity.
The most critical part of the release of dash cams is to collect data, imagine that in the future, tens of millions of dash cams will be on the streets and alleys of China, will form a mobile data collection station, which is the most valuable asset for the China Group, can be one step ahead of others in autonomous driving and other on-board applications.
In the information society, data is the greatest asset.