Chapter 53 Going to the United States to find out
The news of HSBC's announcement of a huge loss of $10.8 billion detonated like a nuclear bomb in the global financial markets, and people have asked why the century-old bank made such a huge mistake!
The root cause was quickly revealed by HSBC, whose mortgage business in the North American real estate market went awry, and many maturing personal mortgages could not be recovered and became bad debts, resulting in a loss of tens of billions of dollars.
However, HSBC also announced that their total profit for the year is expected to reach 28 billion US dollars, which can cover most of the losses of 10 billion yuan, which made the market breathe a sigh of relief.
But well-informed people on Wall Street are already looking at each other's bottom line, and there are still banks that will lose huge amounts of money because of the mortgage business, and there are undercurrents surging under the calm financial lake.
The huge losses were followed by massive layoffs, with some employees at HSBC's North American branches laid off and their faces grimacing as they left the company on television.
Sitting in the conference room and watching the relevant news reports, Han Hao felt like he was watching a play, and across the vast Pacific Ocean, the losses of the U.S. financial industry did not affect China.
"HSBC accepts too many multi-level credit lenders, and their income is unstable and their credit is not good, which is in strong contrast to high-income and high-level people with good credit like you, so they are called subprime lenders in the industry, referred to as subprime lenders.
Against the backdrop of rising home prices in the United States, no one believes that house prices will fall, so even a dog can easily get a home loan from a bank, let alone a person with subprime credit.
Because the bank believes that it is a big deal, it will take back the house and re-auction it, as long as the house price does not fall, then the bank will make a profit and not lose money.
However, since last year, the U.S. housing market began to decline, and the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates, many subprime borrowers were unable to repay their loans, because they found that they could not repay their bank loans even if they sold their homes, so they had to default on their loans.
This is the main reason for HSBC's losses, as those who cannot afford their mortgages defaulted on large scales, resulting in de facto bad debts that forced the bank to accrue losses. ”
Yin Qingxun had to act as a teacher temporarily to explain to Han Hao the reasons for HSBC's loss.
"Now it's just that some housing loan businesses have gone wrong, and it doesn't affect the overall financial situation. You must know that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are very stable, and the world's latest technology applications, the most advanced financial system, and the most powerful market can ensure that their Stars and Stripes will never fall.
However, Ford and General Motors have exploded last year's losses of up to $10 billion, and I think they deserve more attention than HSBC.
If my guess is correct, the sale of Aston Martin should be paid off soon. ”
In Yoon's view, Ford will soon make a move.
Despite HSBC's large losses, the U.S. stock market is still rising, and all Americans don't think HSBC's losses are directly related to them.
After the split of China's stock market, there is the halo of the Olympic Games, coupled with the fact that China's total GDP has successfully achieved the state of "sitting on four and looking at three", second only to the United States, Japan and Germany, and the Shanghai Composite Index has risen all the way to break through the 3,000-point mark and launched an impact on 4,000 points.
Driven by the rise in the stock markets of the two superpowers, the United States and China, the global economy continues to maintain an upward posture, and the problems with U.S. mortgages have not affected the good expectations of the global economy.
It can be said that the financial crisis is only a distant hypothesis, and no one believes that it will come soon.
Still, because of its proximity to Wall Street, Ford's executives smelled something bad in the air.
Ford's current CEO, Muralie, has set himself the goal of leading Ford to profitability in 2010, which means that he has given himself three years to adjust his business and get Ford out of the quagmire in the fourth year.
After determining the "One Ford" strategy, he immediately carried out the work of "opening up sources and reducing expenditures."
Due to the continuous losses, Ford's cash flow is very tight, and it is no longer able to allocate enough funds to invest in the development of new models.
Therefore, Murali's first job is to find cash for the company and ensure that the capital chain is not broken.
After HSBC revealed that the mortgage business was losing money, Murali felt that the situation was not good, and consumers would not be willing to spend more money on cars if they could not live in a house.
Therefore, while the assets are still at a high valuation and the stock price has fallen a lot, Murali plans to mortgage the entire assets of Ford Motor, including the trademark, to the bank and ask for a loan of about $30 billion for his reforms in the next three years.
But before that, he had to make Ford look better and reassure the banks.
In addition to closing factories and laying off employees to reduce costs, selling surplus sub-brands has become the best option to recoup funds.
After half a month of negotiations and three rounds of bidding, the Aston Martin brand was sold to a British consortium by Ford for $925 million in early March 2007, and the brand returned to the British bosom again, but the transaction price was 50% of Ford's initial offer.
This lightning sale shocked the industry, and it took half a year less than everyone expected.
At the same time, Ford has officially announced that it will sell the Jaguar and Land Rover brands, and they are very interested in hearing suitable offers.
This news is something that Han Hao has always dreamed of, and he has long been ready to buy these two luxury brands.
Tata Motors, also as far away as India, is gearing up to participate in the bidding for the two brands.
The battle between the two major powers, China and India, is the first to clash in the economic field, focusing on automobiles.
Han Hao is determined to succeed, and he believes he can persuade Ford to take back the luxury car brand controlled by the Chinese in the future.
If you want to buy Jaguar Land Rover, you must obtain a national road strip to pass.
Half a year in advance, the National Development and Reform Commission agreed in principle to Zhonghua Group's attempt to acquire overseas after a long discussion. They will need to use $4 billion to 5 billion to estimate the acquisition, which is a large amount that few domestic companies can offer.
Zhonghua Group's domestic automobile sales reached 1.73 million units last year, and if the sales of overseas joint venture plants are added, the overall sales volume exceeded 2.36 million units, successfully entering the top 10 positions in the global automotive industry. After years of competition, the global auto market has evolved from a "6+3" pattern to a top 10 pattern, and BMW and Suzuki have fallen behind in sales, and the Zhonghua Group Group from China has become the 10th.
The sales revenue of Zhonghua Group also broke the record and exceeded the 200 billion yuan mark, reaching 208.9 billion yuan, and lived up to expectations to achieve a record peak of net profit of 23.1 billion yuan.
It is precisely with such confidence that Zhonghua Group dares to participate in billions of dollars of mergers and acquisitions abroad.
According to the application materials submitted by Han Hao, he cashed out a lot of shares, especially Geely Real Estate's shares to raise no less than 15 billion yuan in cash, plus follow-up financing means, should be able to complete the source of funds for the entire project acquisition.
Before confirming that the Zhonghua Group is the only target for the state to support, the NDRC also asked a circle of domestic auto manufacturers, mainly several large state-owned auto groups.
FAW has two joint venture partners, Volkswagen and Toyota, and last year's sales did not increase but decreased, they are powerless objects, and they really can't afford to spend so much money to join in the fun. SAIC already has Rover assets, and Ssangyong Automobile is constantly deflated, so it has also broken off the heart of continuing to acquire, indicating that it is not interested. Dongfeng Motor's joint venture business has just improved, and its strength is the weakest of the three, and it has never thought of going abroad.
As for the two major local car companies of Shouqi and GAC, one is busy with Mercedes-Benz joint ventures, and the other is messing with Toyota's joint ventures, coupled with limited strength, they dare not imagine billions of dollars in mergers and acquisitions.
After a routine round of questioning, everyone has no opinion on Zhonghua Group's overseas mergers and acquisitions, but many companies are waiting to see jokes, so the National Development and Reform Commission officially approved Zhonghua Group to become the only representative of Chinese enterprise mergers and acquisitions.
After getting the road strip given by the state, Han Hao took Yin Qingxun, Zhao Quanfu and others to form a negotiation team, flew to Ford's headquarters, and began to formally contact the other party.
Before negotiating, it is necessary to figure out how much the two brands of Jaguar and Land Rover are worth!
Since the launch of a new product in 2002, the Jaguar brand has sold more than 120,000 units worldwide, but due to the lack of competitiveness, sales have been declining year by year, and only 75,000 units were achieved last year. Compared with the peak state of that year, sales fell by 40%, and the loss in 2006 was as high as 700 million US dollars, and it is expected to lose at least 300 million US dollars this year.
For negative assets such as the Jaguar brand, Goldman Sachs, which provides M&A banking services for the China Group, gives a valuation of $2 billion, which is $600 million less than when Ford bought Jaguar for $2.6 billion.
The Land Rover brand focuses on the luxury SUV segment and has a strong reputation around the world. Since joining the Ford Group, sales have climbed from 170,000 to 200,000 units, which seems to be unpopular and does not meet Ford's requirements. However, compared with Jaguar, Land Rover is still in a state of small growth every year, and can bring a certain profit. In 2006, the Land Rover brand was profitable, selling 220,000 vehicles and contributing $200 million in profits to Ford. It is expected that in 2007, it will continue to make a profit of about 100 million.
Ford spent 2.8 billion to pocket Land Rover that year, although Land Rover did not make very dazzling results, but based on the traditional hegemony in the luxury SUV field, Goldman Sachs gave it a valuation of 3.5 billion US dollars.
At present, the valuation of Jaguar and Land Rover is only a reference, and the specific quotation will have to wait for Ford to give detailed information on the operation of the two brands before finalizing.
Ford warmly welcomed the arrival of Han Hao and others, but did not give a clear answer on how to sell Jaguar and Land Rover.
Whether the two will be sold separately or as a package, Ford said remains to be studied. At the same time, Ford also has different opinions on whether to retain a certain stake in the two brands, and many people hope to retain some stake in the future if the situation changes.
In the event that the two major brands suddenly increase in value in the future, Ford will also be able to enjoy the dividends, after all, the big sale may not get a satisfactory offer.
What's more, Ford is still waiting for Tata Motors to join, and only when the two power compete can they get the most benefits.