Chapter 494: The Tango Effect
Masayoshi Kishimoto and Kiyoshi Kobayashi chatted for a long time. Kishimoto also needs the other party to make a confidential and detailed plan.
Kishimoto is well aware that Argentina is a country that not only the Japanese, but also many people in the world, know very little about the country.
One of the most well-known is Argentine football. Otherwise, it was the Falklands War between Argentina and Great Britain.
Other than that, very little is known. On the international stage, it is like a small transparent existence. Even when it comes to South America or Latin America, Brazil is often the first thing that comes to mind.
In fact, Argentina is blessed with a variety of natural conditions that are conducive to economic development. Its population is only 4% of India's, but its land area is equivalent to 85% of it.
India, on the other hand, is 1/3 of China's land area and has more arable land than China. Argentina's Pampas, which accounts for 1/4 of the country's total area, has a mild climate, fertile land and flat terrain.
Argentines often proudly say that our plains, from the Atlantic Ocean, are ploughed to the foothills of the Andes without touching a single stone.
In addition, Argentina also has abundant resources, including the world's second largest reserves of rare metal beryllium, the largest uranium reserves in Latin America, and rich in oil and natural gas resources.
Other conditions in Argentina are also suitable for economic development. It has more than 5,000 kilometers of coastline, numerous bays and a mild climate that provide Argentina with many ice-free ports.
Argentines are mainly descendants of white European immigrants and make up about 97% of the country's total population. Therefore, Argentina is basically free of ethnic contradictions.
In general, Argentines are more educated and have a better workforce. The level of education of Argentines is also among the highest among third world countries.
In 2000, Argentina's total external debt amounted to $146.2 billion, equivalent to 4.7 times its foreign exchange earnings that year, and debt and interest payments accounted for 38 per cent of export earnings that year. Argentina's per capita income is more than $8,000.
In November 2001, the Argentine Government declared itself unable to repay its external debts and decided to implement debt restructuring due to the impact of the financial crises in Southeast Asia and Brazil.
From the announcement of President de la Rúa's resignation on 20 December 2001 to the inauguration of Justice Senator Duarte as the new President on 1 January 2002, there have been five changes of presidency in just 12 days, indicating that the political crisis is also quite serious.
Large-scale riots and intense political turmoil forced the government to abandon the currency bureau exchange rate system in which the peso is pegged to the dollar, and the confidence of domestic and foreign investors in Argentina has plummeted. Argentina is not only suffering from a debt crisis, but also a political and social crisis.
Prior to this, the Argentine economy had fallen into depression, and the government fiscal deficit and debt situation had deteriorated significantly. The government has had to finance the deficit through domestic banks, and the ratio of government debt to bank assets has risen dramatically, which has significantly increased the credit risk of the banking system.
On 23 December 2001, the Argentine Government announced a temporary suspension of interest and principal payments on all public bonds, and on 24 December announced that it would issue its third currency, the Argentine dollar, in January 2002.
The Argentine peso has depreciated sharply, reaching 75% at its peak, and Argentine inflation has risen rapidly, with a cumulative inflation rate of up to 80% after the peso devaluation, a large number of businesses have closed, the unemployment rate has risen sharply to 25%, and the economy has fallen by 10.9% in 2002.
At the end of 2004, after painstaking negotiations, an agreement was reached with the international financial institutions to unveil a debt restructuring plan to repay old debts by issuing new debt at a face value equivalent to only 25-35 per cent of the debt. On 3 March 2005, debt restructuring was successful, ending more than three years of debt insolvency.
Argentina has become one of the "countries that have crossed over", and in less than a hundred years, Argentina has evolved from a world economic power to the world's largest defaulter.
Argentines also have a strong sense of advanced consumption, so it is difficult to increase their savings rate. In 1998, for example, Argentina's savings rate was 17. 4%, which is not only lower than the Latin American average (19%), but also lower than Brazil (18. 6%), Mexico (22.4%) and Chile (25. 2), which is lower than that of South Korea (33.8%).
In fact, Argentina's GDP per capita is less than that of South Korea. In 1998, it was $8,030 in Argentina and $8,600 in South Korea.
In the same year, private spending per capita in Argentina was $7,818, compared to $6,695 in South Korea. Due to the low domestic savings rate, Argentina has had to rely on external funds to expand reproduction. It is no wonder that after the debt crisis that broke out in Argentina in the early 80s, it was again in debt crisis less than 20 years later.
A growing body of research suggests that a higher savings rate is both a driver and a consequence of rapid economic growth.
When the economy accelerates, people's living standards also improve rapidly and increase their savings without reducing consumption.
The increase in savings, in turn, expands investment and accelerates economic development, ultimately forming a virtuous circle of savings and growth.
The outbreak of the financial crisis in Argentina has not only devastated its own vitality, but also affected neighboring Brazil and Latin America as a whole. In the case of Argentina, this is called the tango effect.
Since the 90s, with the continuous development of financial globalization, when the financial situation of a certain country or a certain region is turbulent, or even after falling into a financial crisis, it will produce a contagion effect, and the Western media will try to find a title from your country and this region that can symbolize your country.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Mexico in 1994, there was a kind of wine called tequila in Mexico, which refers to the production of this country, so people call the effect of the Mexican financial crisis the tequila effect.
When the financial turmoil occurred in Brazil in 1999, Brazil was famous for its samba dance, so the international community said that the impact of the financial turmoil in Brazil was called the samba effect.
At this time, Masayoshi Kishimoto naturally remembered the five-year gambling agreement he had with Maki Iwasaki.
The focus of Iwasaki's investment is in South America, with a focus on Brazil. I knew for a long time that I would eat her. Although it is said that victory is not martial, but deception in the business field is the norm.
When the time comes, he will definitely take back the other 50% of the shares of Hard Gold Media from Iwasaki Maki.
Perhaps, in less than five years, Iwasaki Maki will take the initiative to sell this part of the shares of Hard Gold Media to herself to fill the huge gap in her investment in South America.
At that time, although there was more than one shareholder in the entire hard gold group, there was no one who could threaten him.
Whoever wants to withdraw his shares can be repurchased by him effortlessly. In the same way, he wants to privatize it all and then become a sole proprietorship, which is as easy as drinking water.