Chapter 016: The Ripple Effect
Although the Asian financial crisis is still ongoing, people's lives still have to go on. Someone in the ramen shop started talking about the current foreign exchange market.
Masayoshi Kishimoto buried his head in his big bowl of tonkotsu ramen, but he knew in his heart that the foreign exchange market was specialized in harvesting people like the other party.
A timid layman who doesn't understand at all is good. As I said to Rie Sakai, the people who drown the most in the water are not those who can't swim, but those who can swim.
The reason why he dared to short the yen with 10 times leverage was because he knew in advance that the yen would fall until May and June next year, and the maximum would be close to the 150 yen mark for 1 dollar.
Even so, Kishimoto has to watch carefully, lest he blow up his position if the yen rises more than 10% against the dollar in the middle.
In fact, more than 5% should be covered in a timely manner. He will not operate a full position, so he will naturally have a backup fund for a margin call.
Usually, it is also done with 2-5 times leverage. This is also for those veterans who have rich practical experience in foreign exchange speculation. Ordinary people stepping into the foreign exchange market are tantamount to looking for death.
Using leverage to speculate on foreign exchange is to think that you are not dying fast enough. If you want to get rich, make a fortune, you must take risks. The phrase "seeking wealth and danger" is completely true. However, the rate of return is directly proportional to the risk.
Kishimoto doesn't have to wait until the yen falls to its lowest point against the dollar before closing his position. He knows very well that there will inevitably be ups and downs in the middle, and how to use and make money is the ability.
The current exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is 1:115. By the time USD/JPY approaches 1:150, it means that the yen has fallen by about 30%.
Kishimoto doesn't like to make money from the financial markets, after all, it is against his own investment principles. He is an investment company, not a stock or speculation.
In his view, the growth of a quality company is like making the cake bigger. The bigger the cake, the more you get it. However, whether it is speculation in foreign exchange, stocks, futures, gold, etc., it is not like this at all.
The size of the cake is often a given, and if you eat more, I will eat less. If I eat more, it means you have to eat less.
The zero-sum game of the game between the two sides is either to harvest others or to be harvested by others. If you weren't too idle, you wouldn't be involved.
The most annoying thing in this world is the ripple effect. What happens from the financial crisis can spill over into the real economy.
Kishimoto's righteous heart is like a mirror, and at this time, Chinese mainland is about to start a wave of layoffs that will sweep the whole country. Laid-off workers generally see it as the throes of the country's industrial transformation, and the same is true for the actual propaganda.
In fact, the influence of the Asian financial turmoil, an external factor, is the fuse that detonated the powder keg of this wave of layoffs in Chinese mainland.
The problem of laid-off workers first appeared in the early 1990s, when it was not called laid-off, and in some places it was called "leave without pay", in some places it was called "unemployed in the factory", and in some places it was called "taking a long vacation" and "not looking for both".
In the mid-to-late 90s, the problem of laid-off workers began to emerge as a social and economic phenomenon, and it aroused widespread concern in all sectors of society.
The problem of laid-off workers appeared in a concentrated manner during this period, which is a comprehensive reflection of the deep-seated contradictions accumulated over many years of China's economic development.
Between 1998 and 2000, 21.37 million workers were laid off in China's state-owned enterprises. Among them, in 1998, there were 6.918 million at the beginning of the year, and 5.622 million new people that year.
In 1999, 6.1 million people were carried forward from the previous year, with an increase of 6.186 million in the same year, and in 2000, 6.52 million people were carried forward from the previous year, with an increase of 4.446 million in the same year.
In terms of total volume, the total number of laid-off workers has shown a downward trend in the past three years. In terms of geographical distribution, laid-off workers are mainly concentrated in old industrial bases and economically underdeveloped areas, with the three northeastern provinces accounting for 25 percent.
From the perspective of industry distribution, it is mainly concentrated in difficult industries such as coal, textiles, machinery, and military industry. At the beginning of 2001, there were 6.573 million laid-off workers in state-owned enterprises (including state-owned joint ventures and wholly state-owned companies), with an increase of 2.343 million and a decrease of 3.762 million in that year, and 5.154 million laid-off workers at the end of 2001.
As soon as Masayoshi Kishimoto thought of this, the five-flavor bottle in his heart was completely overturned. The Northeast is the hardest hit area, and even after 20 years, the revitalization of the Northeast will only stop at the slogan. The birth rate in the Northeast is lower than that of Japan and South Korea, and more than 4 million young and middle-aged people have flowed out.
Nothing has been affected by this more than the southeast coast, which was at the forefront of reform and opening up. In addition, the location advantage is obvious, facing Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and overseas, so as to be able to quickly develop the economy.
It's not a one-time end, it's like a financial storm that will come back after a while. Twenty years later, unemployment among young people aged 15-24 remains high even in some of the OECD's major member countries.
South Korea is 11.2%, RB is 5.0%, Germany is 6.8%, Finland is 20.2%, Australia is 12.8%, Mexico is 7.1%, the United States is 9.4%, Canada is 11.7%, Denmark is 11.1%, France is 21.7%, Portugal is 23.7%, and Spain is 39.3%.
Masayoshi Kishimoto was full, paid the money, and quietly got up and walked out of the ramen shop. His biggest emotion is that it is not easy for people to live.
Twenty years later, even the RB people, who have the lowest youth unemployment rate among the OECD countries, are complaining bitterly, and they jokingly call themselves social animals.
People who do not have a formal job have an unstable income, and after all, they face various pressures on their lives, such as rent. People who have a regular job will face long hours of overtime.
Ostensibly eight hours of work, but in reality there will be a situation where an additional eight hours of overtime will be obligatory. In total, it will be a 16-hour workday, and the so-called compulsory overtime is no overtime pay.
This situation is common among RB SMEs. In order to survive, they have no way but to do it.
The only good thing about large enterprises is that they will have overtime pay more or less overtime. As for the duration, it will also be more than ten hours a day. This high salary is not given for nothing, after all, entrepreneurs are not philanthropists.
This retirement age was extended to 70 years old by the RB government, which really made Kishimoto understand what it means to be a conscription and die as a rest.
For this reason, the reason why he crossed over here is that he is not a salaryman to die. He deeply understood why the word "work" did not come out.
The meaning of the word "poor" is that the top "宀" means a fixed place, such as a factory, a unit, a company, etc. The "eight" in the middle means an eight-hour workday. The bottom "force" means to work hard.
What this means is that you work 8 hours a day in a fixed unit and work hard! As a result, you are still poor.