Chapter 551: The Root of the Plunge

A major stock market crash that swept the entire Western country caused heavy losses to the capital market, and scientific research institutes like Harvard University were not affected, but this stock market crash still made the face of the School of Economics a little unbearable.

Every year, they make a special State of Economic Address for the country, similar to China's economic plan, which explains the state of economic development this year and the measures to deal with it.

However, China's planning is done by the government, while in the United States it is prepared by a special consulting body, and the government will fund them, for example, this year, the US government provided five million dollars for the Harvard School of Economics.

In this completed State of Economic Address, it is clearly pointed out that the current problem in the United States is that with the continuous improvement of productivity, the domestic traditional market has little potential, only upgrading.

Upgrading is to eliminate the original backward equipment and replace it with new equipment and new technology, this process generally takes several years, or even more than ten years, and the funds consumed are astronomical.

But now well, the development of productive forces is the general trend in the world, the concept of economic integration has been proposed, in the process of integration, Western countries will continue to improve technology, and those economically backward countries do not have the foundation and conditions to reach the level of developed countries, they want to improve productivity, can only accept the backward production capacity of developed countries, take this opportunity, developed countries can sell the eliminated equipment and technology to backward countries, in exchange for funds to upgrade technology, this is a virtuous circle, both sides are happy。

At this juncture, China, as the world's largest developing country, has put forward a national policy of reform and opening up, which is undoubtedly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, they have a population of one billion, and the overall standard of living cannot even reach food and clothing, and such a huge market will lead to the development of countless industries as long as the overall improvement is a little bit, and the US government must take advantage of this opportunity to export a large number of industries.

This suggestion has attracted the attention of the US government, and even the president has convened several meetings to discuss the matter, which can be regarded as a proud work of the Harvard School of Economics.

However, in the assessment of the domestic economy, economists pointed out that although the growth rate of the domestic economy has slowed down, the overall operation is still stable, and there will be no fluctuations in the short term, and they also specifically mentioned the stock market, although there will be small shocks, but it will not affect the order of the financial market.

It is true that the stock market has been constantly volatile in the past two months, but on the whole it is still a bull market, which is in line with smooth operation, but the sudden stock market crash on 16 September shattered all illusions, and this will not affect the financial market! It is simply a devastating blow directly.

As the head of the School of Economics and a member of the National Fiscal Policy Advisory Group, Professor Wilson, a Nobel laureate in economics, felt too shameless, and although no one could have predicted such a big stock market crash, and he was not to blame, he felt ashamed of it.

When Liu Lang arrived, Professor Wilson and his assistants were summing up their experience and trying to give an explanation as soon as possible.

"Alright, let's all rest for a while!"

Seeing Liu Lang walk in, Professor Wilson waved his hand, he hadn't slept well in the past few days, and he kept thinking every day, but there were too many factors, and it was not easy to grasp the key point.

"Liu Lang, it's really 'unfortunate' for you to go to New York this time! You caught up with the stock market crash that our country has not encountered in decades, and New York is all in chaos!"

"Professor, it's really messed up, and on the day of the sixteenth, I was on the New York Stock Exchange!"

"What? Where are you? What are you doing?"

Wilson was taken aback.

"It's nothing, just buy some futures!"

Liu Lang replied.

"Oh, you're unlucky, but you're much better off than the speculators!"

Professor Wilson expressed deep regret.

"No, I'm not unlucky, and I'm so lucky, because I made $90 million that day!"

Liu Lang replied.

"Ninety million dollars......... Are you the one with 500 points in stock index futures?"

Professor Wilson jumped at once.

"That's right, that's me...... No, it should be the result of my discussion with Louis!"

Liu Lang pointed to Louis Wang, who was standing aside, and said.

"How could you .........? Did you two predict this big stock market crash?"

"That's right, the result of our research is that there will definitely be a stock market crash, and it will be a big stock market crash!"

Liu Lang said categorically.

"You predicted this stock market crash! Why didn't you say it earlier?"

Professor Wilson said with a glare.

"Hehe, Professor, if Louis had told you five days ago that there was going to be a big stock market crash in the United States that has not happened in decades, would you believe it? Even if you did, the senior officials of the government probably wouldn't believe it, but would probably think we were alarmists, wouldn't that be the case?"

Liu Lang smiled slightly.

"This .........!"

Professor Wilson didn't say anything for a long time, as a leading figure in the field of economics, he very much agreed with Liu Lang's words, there is nothing wrong, before the stock market crash did not happen, even he would not admit that the stock market crash will come to the United States, even if the US economy is a little bad this year, he also thinks that it is only a trivial wave in the transformation of the economic structure, not enough to cause such a strong stock market turmoil, but the result is beyond everyone's expectations, the stock market crash really happened, and it was a disaster beyond imagination.

"Well, then I'd like to hear how you came up with such a strong stock market swing?"

Now is not a matter of dwelling on the stock market crash itself, the key is to find out the problem and prescribe the right medicine.

"Now, I need to ask Luis, he gave me this opportunity to make money!"

"Luis, what the hell is going on?"

Wilson looked at the usually shy Chinese youth.

Louis's face was slightly red, not because of the other party's inquiry, but because Liu Lang was too boastful of himself, Liu Lang made so much money and it actually had nothing to do with him, he was very sure that even if he didn't have himself, Liu Lang would do the same thing, his determination had already been there, and the reason why the other party did this was to give himself a chance, a chance to show himself in front of Professor Wilson, this opportunity was too important to himself.

King Louis glanced at Liu Lang, Liu Lang's smile was very sincere, it was hard to imagine that it was a smile of a six-year-old child.

"Professor, in the past few months, I have done some research on the country's economy, and I have found some problems that cannot be seen on the surface, such as the country's fiscal deficit and trade deficit have reached a new high since the beginning of this year, and from the beginning of the year to the present, the fiscal deficit has reached 111 billion US dollars and the trade deficit has reached 60 billion US dollars, both of which have reached the highest deficit record.

Such a high deficit requires the absorption of external funds to compensate for the shortage of domestic funds, and in order to attract foreign capital, interest rates must be kept high, which has a direct impact on stock market prices.

Since the beginning of the 80s, the real economic growth rate of the United States and other Western countries has slowed, the demand for productive investment has been insufficient, and the surplus capital has poured into the stock market, which has directly led to rampant financial investment, unprecedented debt inflation, and a false prosperity that is difficult to sustain.

In addition, the Western economic system and the entire world economy are in a state of instability, which I cite as the inevitable situation brought about by the adjustment of the industrial structure, but this transformation has caused turbulence in the international exchange rate, serious imbalances in international trade, and continuous international debt crises, all of which have affected the stability of the international capital and stock markets.

Therefore, the immediate trigger for the outbreak of the stock market crash was that the interest rate on Treasury bills and other bonds was correspondingly higher due to the increase in interest rates, and investors transferred funds from the stock market to invest in bonds, causing stock prices to plummet, the trade deficit was too large, and the dollar exchange rate fell, shaking people's confidence in the dollar and the US stock market.

For these reasons, I think a stock market crash is inevitable!"

King Louis spoke his mind.

There are his own judgments in this, but most of them are the conclusions given by Liu Lang, and he feels that Liu Lang's analysis is more thorough, but Liu Lang gave his results to King Louis, just to make him famous.

"That's right!"

Professor Wilson listened carefully.