Maybe many friends don't know that there was a worldwide food crisis in the 90s.

In 1991, world cereal output fell by 3,120 percent year-on-year, and China's cereal output decreased by 1,147 percent; in 1993, world cereal output decreased by 3,157 percent year-on-year, and China's cereal output fell by 2,181 percent; in 1995, world cereal output fell by 3,100 percent again, and a world food crisis broke out, affecting the whole world.

Two American papers, "Will China Make the World Starving?" and "Who Can Feed China?", caused an uproar in China.

The most critical impact of this on the Song family was that China began to limit the production of baijiu and significantly increase the consumption tax on baijiu.

At the same time, the grain requisition quota of Chinese peasants is getting higher and higher, and the peasants need to hand over more and more public grain. In addition, after 1995, China continued to have a bumper grain harvest for three years, and finally survived this food crisis smoothly.

China's grain production in 1998 reached its peak in the 90s. Because of this, there are many experts who study the three rural issues, but few pay attention to the issue of food security, because China's grain production is increasing every year, and grain prices continue to fall.

Song Weiyang's paper was first published in Fudan Journal (Social Science Edition), which attracted a small range of attention in the university. Then he submitted the manuscript to Chinese Social Sciences, which was too high-quality and was not approved.

However, Shenghai's local "Academic Monthly" has given it, which has aroused many discussions among sociologists and experts on the three rural issues.

A small number of scholars agree with Song's view, but most criticize him, believing that Song Weiyang is alarmist. Their thinking is still a few years ago, believing that although the number of migrant workers is increasing, it will not cause a large-scale abandonment of cultivated land, because the land of these migrant workers will be cultivated by other people in the village, and the farmers are eager to grow food on every inch of land.

But the reality can make people scream!

Just as Song Weiyang said in his paper, the area of abandoned farmland in rural areas is not increasing little by little, but increasing geometrically.

This problem will be detonated next year, especially in the rural areas of the south, where the number of migrant workers and peasants has skyrocketed, and the area of abandoned land has skyrocketed, and the country's grain output has been declining year by year since 1999 and reached the bottom in 2003. With the abolition of agricultural taxes by the central authorities and the reform of the grain purchase and sales system, the peasants' burdens have been lightened, and grain output has begun to pick up slowly. It was also from this time that the country gradually relaxed the restrictions on liquor production, and China's liquor industry prospered rapidly.

In the paper, Song Weiyang selected several typical villages, listed the changes in the number of migrant workers and the area of abandoned land in the past three years, and sorted out a correlation coefficient.

Based on this factor, the rate of abandoned arable land in some provinces in the Yangtze River basin will reach 8 percent by 2003. This is so terrifying, it is simply appalling, so it has been criticized by many scholars as nonsense.

The facts will prove that Song Weiyang is right, even if the central government abolishes the agricultural tax, the abandoned area in some provinces once reached 4%. If the agricultural tax is not abolished, it is definitely possible to increase the abandoned area to 8%, if not more!

Inspired by Song Weiyang's paper, several experts on the three rural issues began to go to the countryside to do field research, and at the end of the year, they published several papers in succession, one of which was even published in Chinese Social Sciences. The conclusions they came to were almost identical to those of Song Weiyang, and quickly caused a wide range of discussions in the academic community.

As for the calculation coefficient of the number of rural migrant workers and the area of land abandoned by Song Weiyang, it will also be used in various ways in the next seven or eight years to study the problem of cultivated land abandonment, and was once called the "Song Weiyang coefficient" by academic circles. Of course, this coefficient only existed for seven or eight years, because after 2005, the phenomenon of rural demolition and relocation became more and more common, and it is inaccurate to use this coefficient to calculate the abandoned area.

Many years later, someone turned Song Weiyang's paper out of the knowledge network, and then popularized the "Song Weiyang coefficient", and netizens said: "Father Song is a sociologist who has been delayed in business. ”

But now it is a pity that the top academic journals in China do not accept Song Weiyang's paper at all, and the relevant departments and most scholars do not pay attention to it. Only a few experts on the three rural issues were shocked by Song Weiyang's data in a cold sweat and went to the countryside to do field research at their own expense.

It's normal to think about it, three years of bumper agricultural harvests, who still cares about the food crisis?

Excessive anxiety!

Even this thing is not politically correct, and the mainstream public opinion at this time is shouting: Chinese can feed themselves—— from the official to the non-governmental, they are cheering for the increase in grain production year after year, and they are thinking hard about countermeasures for too much grain and cheap grain hurting the peasants.

Well, the mainstream research direction in the academic circles is: If grain production continues to increase next year, how to stabilize grain prices and how to protect the interests of farmers.

……

The graduation ceremony is just around the corner, and heavy rain is falling across the country.

Sheng Hai has been on and off for several days, Song Weiyang is about to mold in the café, and Xifeng's sales branches in various places have even more headaches - it is the peak season, but the sales of drinks have plummeted!

The store was empty and there were no customers, Lin Zhuoyun reached out to the eaves to catch the rain: "When will this rain stop, it's been a whole day in a row." ”

Song Weiyang leaned on the table and said: "There may be a big flood this year. ”

Lin Zhuoyun said: "There are floods every year. ”

"This year may not be the same. Song Weiyang said.

Lin Zhuoyun smiled: "Do you want to change careers to fortune telling?"

No matter how bad Song Weiyang's memory is, he still remembers the 98 flood, the catastrophic flood with an area of 318 million mu across the country!

From the perspective of timing, the flood broke out at a critical time for rice heading and harvesting, resulting in a large area of farmland yield reduction in the flood-affected areas. But even so, the 1998 national grain harvest was a bumper harvest and reached the peak of agriculture in the 90s. This corroborates Song Weiyang's paper that the reduction in agricultural output since 1999 has nothing to do with anything else, that is, more and more part-time workers and less and less farming, which is purely caused by abandonment.

Lin Zhuoyun glanced at the clock on the wall: "Doudou is about to get out of school, it's raining so hard, you can drive to pick her up." ”

"Then I'm leaving. Song Weiyang got up and said.

From Time Cafe to Fudan Affiliated Primary School, the straight-line distance is less than one kilometer, and Doudou usually walks to and from school.

Song Weiyang drove the-yellow dilapidated van, came to the school gate in minutes, and then squatted on the car to play the mobile game - Snake!

Yes, Song Weiyang, as the boss of PHS, has a new mobile phone, Nokia 6110, the world's first mobile phone that can play games.

"Jingle bell!"

When the snake is about to fill the screen, the school bell finally rings.

After a while, Doudou ran over with an umbrella, got into the car with a smile and said, "Uncle, our car is the most conspicuous, and you can recognize it from afar." ”

"Of course, it's much easier to use than Mercedes-Benz BMW. Buckle up. Song Weiyang said.

Doudou is going to junior high school next semester, and she is already a big girl, chatting with Song Weiyang about school fun stories.

Back at the café, Doudou went straight to the arcade and turned on the coin in one go.

"Do your homework!" Lin Zhuoyun appeared like a demon.

Doudou bargained: "Hit a coin, and I'll do my homework after playing." ”

"Immediately, immediately!" Lin Zhuoyun said.

"Write it. Doudou pouted and left.

Lin Zhuoyun began to complain to Song Weiyang: "You shouldn't have bought the arcade machine back." ”

Song Weiyang said with a smile: "Children, work and rest are combined." ”

Lin Zhuoyun said: "My sister opens a store in the city, and she can't come back a few times a month, so of course I have to urge Doudou to study hard." You're good, add to the chaos!"

"Hehehe. Song Weiyang smirked.

Suddenly, the phone rang to save the driver, but it was a call from the detective agency: "Boss, someone has found it." Song Xinghua has retired, and Song Weihong and Li Chenggong are both laid-off workers. ”