897 Probability Events

Best sound clip, "Hugo". "Dead Driving" and "Girl with a Dragon Tattoo" both failed.

Best acoustics, "Hugo". "War Horse" and "Girl with Dragon Tattoo" both folded.

Following the presentation of the two trophies in the supporting role department, and the announcement of the winners of the two awards in the technical department, "Hugo" continued the strong momentum of the night's hot momentum, taking the lead, only missing out on the two awards of best costume design and best soundtrack, and now there are five golden men in hand, and they are undoubtedly leading the race for best picture tonight.

However, the next decisive battle officially entered the high/tide stage, and the core main awards made a shining debut.

If the duel between "Hugo" and "Artist" is the main theme in the technical department, and the overall pattern is relatively clear when "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "War Horse" are waiting for the opportunity, then the core awards department is the epitome of the entire awards season: a scuffle.

But it is precisely this piece of scuffle, every work has a chance to win, and every work also has a chance to cause an upset, once it can occupy an advantage in the core award department, then the competition for best picture will take on a completely different look.

In fact, the supporting actor category is the core award, and in the competition for best supporting actor, "Moneyball" and "Very Loud, Very Close" failed to make it out, and in the competition for best supporting actress, "help" beat "artist".

Both awards were won by the real front-runners of the awards season, which means that the chaos will continue: the so-called front-runners have not been able to upset in their weaknesses, while the so-called chaperones have the last laugh in their own strengths. If the following script and protagonist departments continue to do this, then the winner of Best Picture may really be a shocking upset.

Tina Fey joined forces with Steve Martin to take the stage to present two awards in the script department. These two well-known comedians in the industry, who are also excellent screenwriters, are really suitable for them to be the presenters.

The first to be revealed was the award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

"The Killing of the President", "Hugo", "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy", "Penalty Money", "Posterity", five works are among the top five nominees.

With the exception of "Killing the President", the other four works were nominated for Best Picture. If they still want to save a glimmer of hope of competing for the ultimate award, then the Best Adapted Screenplay award must not be missed, especially "Moneyball", which has become their last hope if they fail to achieve a reversal in the Best Supporting Actor category.

The script of "Moneyball" was written by Alan Sorkin and Steven Zerian, two god-level screenwriters, and it can be called the biggest hit in the screenwriting department, and the two major competitors they need to face are "Hugo" and "Posterity".

The former is written by John-Logan, who has won two Oscar nominations for "Gladiator" and "The Aviator", and the latter is written by Alexander Penn, who has also been nominated twice and won once for "School Duty" and "A Cup of Wine".

Steve Martin unveiled the winners, "Alexander Payne, Nate Faxon, Jim-Rash, 'posterity'. ”

In an instant, the "Kodak" theater, which is about to become history, applauded thunderously!

The victory of "posterity" means, first of all, that "tinker, tailor, soldier, spy" and "penalty" are left behind, and there is basically no hope for the best picture contender; secondly, it means that "posterity" still maintains a strong position in the first group, and its competitiveness in the next few other awards should not be underestimated.

The suspense has increased, and the ceremony has become beautiful.

Of course, objectively speaking, among the five nominated seats, "Descendants" is also the most outstanding work, and in the awards season, the overall momentum is still slightly ahead, and the whole work can occupy the position of the first group, and the excellent script is indispensable. It can be said that this is an award that must be won on the road of "future generations" competing for best film, and there is no compromise and no way back.

Now, the "descendants" have taken it!

Just as "Help" must win Best Supporting Actress, "Moneyball" must win Best Adapted Screenplay or Best Supporting Actor, and "The Tree of Life" must win Best Cinematography. If you succeed, you keep the hope of competing for best picture, and if you fail, you will be out immediately. As a result, the "help" stayed, and the "Moneyball" and the "Tree of Life" fell behind.

In the same way, "Midnight in Paris" had to win Best Original Screenplay;

Tina Fay revealed the results, earning Woody Allen a third Best Original Screenplay winner, while also keeping "Midnight in Paris" in the race for Best Picture.

In the competition for the best original screenplay, "Compendium to the Sea", "Bridesmaids", "A Farewell", "The Artist" and "Midnight in Paris" are among the candidates.

Throughout the awards season, "Midnight Paris" has a very obvious advantage in the script department, and even the "descendants" are difficult to form a competition, with a devastating attitude, far ahead, if it is not for missing the Oscar nomination for Best Editing, then "Midnight Paris" will likely become Woody's second work to win Best Picture after "Anne Hall".

Now, the competitive landscape is open. Midnight Paris is not the strongest contender, but like the posterity, it retains its competitiveness.

The awards ceremony has come to an end: Best Editing, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, Best Picture.

Each award is crucial and has the potential to revolutionize the landscape. So far, five trophies for "Hugo" and two trophies for "Artist" have all come from the technical department, and the trophies from each of the core departments of "Posterity", "Midnight Paris" and "Help", and the next five awards are intricately intertwined and affect the whole body.

Best Editing Award, "Penalty Money", "Hugo", "Artist", "Descendant", "Girl with a Dragon Tattoo" and other five works to face off, in addition to tonight's "Girl with a Dragon Tattoo" and "Penalty Money" that was determined to fall behind, the other three works, who can get this trophy, means that the balance of victory is tilted.

Especially "Hugo", after winning the Best Cinematography Award, if the Best Editing Award is in the bag, then the Best Picture is a high probability event.

However, when the answer was revealed, all the guests in the audience fell through their glasses: "The girl with the dragon tattoo".

Not "Hugo", not "Artist" or "Posterity", not even "Moneyball", but "Girl with a Dragon Tattoo" who did not win a nomination for Best Picture, but "Girl with a Dragon Tattoo" who was completely ignored in other technical departments tonight!

David Fincher's two royal editors, following last year's "Social Network", won the Best Editing Award for the second year in a row, achieving a winning streak, and at the same time completely breaking the pattern of the awards season -

The "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", who completely missed the competition for Best Picture, won the "Little Best Picture Award", the sandpiper and the clam competed, the fisherman profited, and there was no real winner in the competition for best editing.

"Hugo" and "Artist", who currently dominate, have not been able to extend their advantage and their momentum has slowed down, while "Descendants", "Midnight Paris" and "Help", which do not have a dominant advantage in technical awards, have risen in momentum, and it is clear that they have begun to stand out in the battle for the next two acting categories: George Clooney of "Descendants" and Viola Davis of "Help" are the biggest favorites for their respective awards.

This means ...... This still means that things are still spinning in the same place, the upset of the Best Editing award retains the suspense, the leaders have not been able to extend their advantage, the laggards continue to sit firmly in the Diaoyutai, and the true destiny of the best picture is still covered with a thin veil and fallen into the fog.

When the award presenter Angelina Jolie announced the winners, the sound of gasping could be clearly heard at the scene, and even the crew of "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" themselves were startled, looked at each other, and thought that they had heard it wrong, and couldn't believe that all this really happened.

"Poof. Ryan, who was sitting on Lan Li's left hand side, couldn't help but laugh, and said in a low voice, "I've never seen such a chaotic and ridiculous awards ceremony. ”

Lan Li couldn't help but smile, nodded in agreement, "Even in 2005, there was no such chaos, and then it depends on who will be upset." ”

On the 78th Oscars, "Art/Tricks/Memoirs" and "King Kong", two works that were not nominated for Best Picture, joined forces to dominate the technical department, while the core department fell into chaos, with seven awards other than Best Picture, which were won by six works, and "Brokeback Mountain" won the Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.

This year, the chaos is even worse.

Purely from the perspective of probability, the five works of "Hugo", "The Artist", "The Posterity", "Midnight in Paris" and "Help" are truly equal opportunities, and each work is a record of 20 percent, even the "help" that lost the nominations for Best Director and Best Editing did not fall behind at this time.

The overall momentum of the awards season has continued to the awards ceremony, which means that every subsequent award is heavier, more suspenseful, more tense, and every minute and second is suffocating.

The buzzing discussion was always boiling and spreading, and the panic and uneasiness, anticipation and apprehension revealed in the eyes of the guests at the scene filled the air with a sense of restlessness, which still could not dissipate until Colin Firth took the stage.

However, the award ceremony still has to go on. Colin is about to present the Best Actress award, and whether the equal probability can break the equilibrium is a start.

The five nominees for the actress are Meryl Streep for "Iron Lady", Viola Davis for "Help", Michelle Williams for "My Week with Monroe", Glenn Cross for "Androgyny", and Rooney Mara for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo".

Among the candidates, Rooney is too young to be nominated for the first time to encourage him, and the overall momentum of "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" is far from enough, and she fell behind early in the awards season PR, and being nominated is the best affirmation.

Glenn is too low-key, and the work "Male and Female" has been mentioned a lot during the awards season, but the public relations are weak, and only an independent publishing company has been chosen, which has always been tepid and outstanding, but has not seen a breaking point.

Not surprisingly, Rooney and Glenn should not be the final winners this year. As a result, all eyes are focused on Meryl, Viola and Michelle, and this year's actress is about to be born from it.