Hearing Feng Xiaochen talk about South America, Qi Ruicang's face changed a little, he was silent for a while, and said: "Now when the Western economic community talks about South America, they also sigh. As you know, South America is a model of free economy in economic circles, and because of the economic miracle of South America, many high-level academic papers have been born, and my tutor in the United States has seriously studied South America and has always praised the South American system. ”

"And now?" Feng Xiaochen asked gloatingly.

Qi Ruicang glanced at him and said: "Now he hasn't written an article for more than a year, and I have followed him back to South America a few times, and the scene I saw is still quite prosperous, but in our business, how can we just look at the appearance, in fact, South American countries are now in debt, just waiting for an opportunity, it is estimated that it will collapse completely." ”

"Wouldn't it?" Yu Rui, who had already become a deputy minister of the Women's Federation, interjected in surprise, that she was not a vice-ministerial-level cadre as she usually said, but just a deputy bureau-level cadre, but with her age, she was in a good position. Her current work is women's employment, and she has also visited South America, and she is quite envious of the South American economy. Now that she heard Feng Xiaochen and Qi Ruicang say that South America is facing a crisis, she really can't believe it.

Ding Shikuan said: "Lao Qi and Xiao Feng are right, I have also studied the economic data of South America, various countries have borrowed too much in previous years, and the borrowed foreign debt has not formed a local production capacity, the result is that they cannot make ends meet, and everyone is betting on when the financial crisis will happen again in South America." ”

"Don't talk about people. Xie Keli, who had been silent, spoke, he looked at Feng Xiaochen and said, "Xiao Feng, let me give you a good breath, the 100 million yuan subsidized loan you applied for is estimated to be yellow." The pressure on the state finances is now very great, and in many places not only cannot pay the salaries of primary and secondary school teachers, but even the staff of administrative organs are owed wages for several months, and if the state cannot provide some subsidies, the work in these places will come to a standstill. The leader instructed that stability is paramount, and the matter of establishing an extreme manufacturing base that you proposed can only be delayed. ”

After graduating from graduate school, Xie Keli joined the Ministry of Finance, and now he has been promoted to the level of deputy director, and he has a lot of power in his hands. He gave Feng Xiaochen this wind, which was not a violation of the regulations, but a preventive shot, so that the equipment industry company could be prepared. A few years ago, Feng Xiaochen visited many large manufacturing enterprises and called on everyone to raise funds to build an extreme manufacturing base specializing in the production of super-large and super-heavy components. Feng Xiaochen put the idea on the financial side, hoping that the finance could provide some discounts, so that the equipment industrial company could borrow a sum of money from the bank to cope with the initial investment of the base.

The report of the equipment industry company was sent to the Ministry of Finance, but it was approved by several leaders, and it was only after the Spring Festival that it would start operating. At the end of the year, the Ministry of Finance took stock and found that this year's fiscal revenue had failed to meet expectations, while the budgets reported by various departments had risen by a large amount, and the deficit was outrageously large. In this case, the head of the ministry can only instruct to reduce those unnecessary expenditures as much as possible and maintain stability. The extreme manufacturing base is a project with a long investment cycle, and there is no return in the short term, so it is naturally included in the compressed list.

The first half of the 90s was the time when the country's finances were at their tightest. At the beginning of reform and opening up, the vast majority of enterprises were state-owned enterprises, which were able to hand over profits to the treasury, and the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP reached more than 30%. Since the reform, along with the changes in the fiscal and taxation system, state-owned enterprises have shifted from paying profits to paying taxes, and a considerable part of their profits have been retained in the enterprises. In addition, due to the rise of township enterprises and private enterprises, the proportion of income generated by state-owned enterprises in the entire economy is becoming smaller and smaller, while non-public-owned enterprises do not have to pay profits, and taxes can be escaped, and the proportion of the state's fiscal revenue in GDP has also shown a precipitous decline.

By 1992, the share of state revenue in GDP had fallen to 13.1 percent, and by 1995 it had fallen to 10.7 percent. Of course, even the 13.1% figure in 1992 is much higher in absolute terms than in 1978. However, the amount of fiscal expenditure has also increased. In the past two years, prices have once again shown a trend of rising, and if wages cannot rise with them, civil servants, doctors, policemen, teachers, scientists, and so on will have no choice but to drink the wind.

Of course, this is only the concept of budgetary income, and when the state cannot come up with the money, all units are actively trying to create a large amount of "extra-budgetary income" to subsidize employees and improve the working environment. Some hospitals have started to run "specialist clinics" to make money from the wealthy, and some schools have started to run various training courses and send the best teachers to teach in order to achieve so-called "income generation".

This period of history has been criticized a lot by later generations, but standing on the threshold of 1993, even Feng Xiaochen, who has the memory of two lifetimes, can't think of any other way to change the situation. In fact, the one he engaged in in the equipment industry company is also the income-generating model of other units, such as subcontracting projects obtained from overseas to domestic enterprises and charging a certain commission, which is definitely not the right way. But if this is not done, I am afraid that the equipment industry company will close down long ago, and where will there be the ability to wrestle with local officials such as the Dingnan Planning Commission.

Hearing Xie Kelitou's news, Feng Xiaochen was silent for a moment and said: "Actually, we don't want much, that is, to provide some discounts, 100 million funds, we are ready to raise from the bank." As for the matter of providing subsidized loans for the equipment industry, the leaders at the top also nodded too much, so you can't find a way to squeeze it?"

Xie Keli smiled: "Xiao Feng, if it's just your 100 million yuan discount, we can take it out anyway, and the interest for a year is only a few million." But now the problem is that all units are applying for subsidized loans, once you are opened, others want the same policy, what should we do?"

Feng Xiaochen was speechless, what the system pays attention to is not to suffer from widowhood but unevenness, and the financial department gives interest discounts to equipment industry companies, and others will naturally demand equal treatment. The equipment industry company does not have a special aura, why should people watch you get benefits but not say anything?

"Haha, look, we were still laughing at South America just now, and now it's our turn to make jokes, right? The dignified Ministry of Finance, we can't even take out a few million, in case of a financial turmoil, will we also face financial bankruptcy?" Qi Ruicang said with a smile. At that moment just now, he was choked enough by Feng Xiaochen and the other three, and now he can seize the opportunity to ridicule each other.

Xie Keli looked at several classmates, lowered his voice and said, "Lao Qi's prophecy is not unreasonable. At present, the efficiency of state-owned enterprises is very poor, and the losses are as large as 50 percent, and the fiscal revenue has been greatly affected. I would like to reveal a piece of news here, don't go out and say that the pressure on the state finances next year will be very great, and the issuance of additional currency is certain, but the scale is still uncertain. We have calculated that in the best case, inflation is estimated to reach more than 10%, and if we are pessimistic, 15% may not be able to stop. ”

"Is it so serious?" Yu Rui was dumbfounded again. She is now working with women, and she doesn't know much about the macroeconomy, and a lot of information comes from the news, so she is quite optimistic. However, the others are different: Wang Zhenbin is from the Planning Commission; Feng Xiaochen has a large number of contacts and has the perspective of a traveler; and Ding Shikuan is engaged in economic research and has participated in many high-level internal meetings, and he has heard these rumors countless times. As for Qi Ruicang, he looked at foreign sources, and foreign estimates of China's financial situation were far more pessimistic than Xie Keli said, and the collapse theory was basically a consensus.

"I'm not so pessimistic. After a short silence, Feng Xiaochen spoke, he said: "The situation in our country is different from that in Latin America, the main difference is that our industry is basically in our own hands, unlike Latin America, which is completely controlled by foreign countries. State-owned enterprises are currently in a period of internal management mechanism adjustment, and it is inevitable that large-scale losses will occur. But before the state-owned enterprises fell into trouble, our township enterprises had sprung up, enough to support half of the country. ”

Feng Xiaochen's words are actually a summary of China's economy in the 90s. In the same way, from a planned economy to a market economy, all the state-owned enterprises in the former Soviet Union collapsed overnight, prices soared, unemployment was everywhere, and financial embarrassment was imposed. In China, on the other hand, due to the vigorous promotion of the development of township enterprises and the private economy in the 80s, by the early 90s, these non-state-owned economies had strong strength and were able to support the heavy burden of absorbing jobs and enriching the finances.

From 1990 to 1998, the number of jobs accommodated by state-owned enterprises fell by tens of millions, which is what later generations often called "30 million laid-offs", while at the same time, the number of people employed in the country's secondary and tertiary industries rose by as much as 90 million due to the absorption of private enterprises. Combined, the two are equivalent to 120 million jobs in the private sector, so that China does not repeat the old path of the economic collapse of the former Soviet Union.

"The township enterprises in China, aren't they all engaged in needles and threads, and they are struggling to survive, what can they support?" Qi Ruicang said disdainfully.

The five classmates who stayed in China turned their eyes to Qi Ruicang at the same time, as if they were looking at a turtle coming out of the countryside. Well, even if you come back from Chicago, can you not be so shallow? The domestic township enterprises did have a hard time in the 80s, but after entering the 90s, they are far from Wuxia Amon. The local tyrants on the street with "Big Brother" in their waists are far more powerful than their room at the department level and deputy director level, Qi Ruicang actually said that people are struggling to survive.

"Uh, isn't that the case? It's all written in foreign journals......" Qi Ruicang also knew that he might have made a mistake, and couldn't help but feel a little embarrassed.

Ding Shikuan sat beside Qi Ruicang, stretched out his hand and patted Qi Ruicang's arm, and said with a smile: "Old Qi, you are Lao Huangli." I have also read those foreign periodicals, and the three points of hearsay and seven points of preconceived ideas are not enough to reflect the real situation in China. According to me, if you want to study the China issue, you must come to China, and if you come back this time, you won't leave again, right?"