Vienna, Secretariat of OPEC Headquarters.

Since returning from China, Graeme has been somewhat uneasy, pondering in his mind what the Chinese authorities might do. Although he was Bradman's deputy when he went to China to negotiate, he was also a spokesman sent to OPEC by an oil company to take responsibility for his employers. Feng Xiaochen's statement that he wants to make OPEC suffer losses is in fact to make the oil companies of OPEC member countries suffer losses, and it is impossible for Graeme not to pay attention to this threat.

"Bradman, what do you think the Chinese will do?"

Sitting in his office, Graeme asked Bradman for the hundredth time.

Bradman pouted and said, "Graeme, you haven't forgotten what the Chinese said? I don't think he has any way to threaten us." China's own oil production is insufficient to meet domestic demand, and they must obtain oil from the international market unless they are willing to abandon their modernization plans. And as I understand it, they are working on their next five-year plan, which will require a large supply of oil to support all the indicators. ”

"Will they consider getting oil supplies from other countries?" Graeme asked.

"It's possible, and they're doing it now. "But other countries can't provide them with so much oil, and as long as we cut OPEC production, global oil prices will rise simultaneously, and the cheapest oil will still be provided by us, and Chinese can't deliberately choose those more expensive oils in order to gamble with us." ”

"There's also the possibility that they will increase their own oil production. "I've seen reports from the Chinese that they have discovered large oil reservoirs in the South China Sea and the Taklamakan Desert in the northwest, and they may want to replace imported oil with their own oil." ”

"It's even more unlikely. Whether it is offshore oil or oil from the desert areas of northwest China, it needs to have a long extraction cycle, and the cost is also very large. The Chinese may intend to use this oil in the long term, but at the moment, they can't do that. ”

You must know that China is a permanent member of the Security Council and has a great say in many international issues. ”

"Maybe, but what does this have to do with us?" Bradman said lazily, "We only need to be responsible for the oil companies, and let the OPEC ministers worry about the affairs on the government side." ”

"However, I still don't ...... down"

"Graeme, I think you should see a psychiatrist, or look at the new newspaper today...... Bradman said, clearly seeing the female secretary walk into their office and bring them the day's paper.

"Let me see, ha, something happened in Chechnya again, and I knew that the Russians could not control Chechnya. Iraq...... "Hey, there's actually a piece of news from China, let me see, guess what I found......" Bradman muttered to himself as he read the headline in the newspaper, when suddenly, a somewhat familiar name jumped into his eyes:

Feng Xiaochen, General Manager of China State Equipment Industry Corporation...... Hey, Graeme, did you think this could be the same von we talked to last week?"

Graeme was reading another newspaper when he heard Bradman's words, he threw down the newspaper and came to Bradman's side in an arrow step. He followed Bradman's finger to see the article, and when he first read it, he didn't feel anything, and when he read it a second time, his face suddenly turned pale.

"Coal to Synthetic Petroleum Project...... Oh my God, Bradman, did you see that the Chinese have built a new coal-to-oil project in one of their places called Shanbei Province. Graeme said loudly.

"Coal synthesizes oil?" Bradman was also a rin, he just took a cursory look at the article, and did not dwell too deeply. Coal-to-liquid is a relatively obscure technology, and Bradman is not engaged in technology, and usually does not pay attention to the news in this area, and at first glance I really don't think it is important. But when Graeme reminded him, he reacted, coal-to-oil, this is the sword of Damocles hanging above OPEC's head, Bradman, even if he is ignorant, he has heard people talk about it on weekdays.

The two men spread the newspaper on the table and read it word for word. It was a press release, and the two of them even suspected that it was a press release, the kind that the party that published the news wrote itself and had the reporters of various media outlets repost it in its entirety. The press release said that the Chinese government held a groundbreaking ceremony for a large coal-to-liquid project in Shanbei Province yesterday, which was attended by a number of government officials, and they could not tell the difference between the series of titles and the like, but at least they knew that they were all relatively large, indicating that the Chinese government attaches great importance to this matter. And presiding over this groundbreaking ceremony was none other than Feng Xiaochen, who had met with them a week ago.

"That's what Feng threatened us that day. Bradman said with some hindsight.

"Yes, that's the case, and he threatens to replace imports from OPEC with coal-to-liquid. If there is a breakthrough in this technology, it will be a very big threat to OPEC. Graeme said.

Bradman said: "Graeme, I remember that the development of coal-to-liquid technology has been going on for many years, and when the first South Africans engaged in this technology, it also attracted the attention of OPEC, but it turned out that the South Africans' experiment was not successful, and the cost of coal-to-liquid is much greater than that of natural oil, so it is impossible to replace oil." ”

Graeme, who clearly knows more, said: "So far, the cost of coal-to-liquid is still much higher than that of natural oil, and I mean, of course, the current price of oil,...... and current coal-to-liquids technology. If oil prices continue to rise, coal-to-liquids will have a certain economy. And if a major breakthrough is made in coal-to-liquid technology, it can also be economical. ”

"So, do you think the Chinese have made a major breakthrough in coal-to-liquid technology?" Bradman asked.

Graeme nodded and said, "I suspect they've done it." If you look at this paragraph, this project of the Chinese has invested 1.72 billion US dollars to form an annual production capacity of 4 million tons of synthetic oil. If they didn't have a high enough technology, how could they invest so much money in construction?"

"Could it be just a propaganda ploy?" Mr. Bradman speculated.

Graeme frowned and said, "I don't rule out this possibility, but it's also possible that the Chinese are playing for real." Bradman, do you recall what kind of attitude that Mr. Feng had towards us that day, and if he didn't have a hard enough hole card, would he dare to speak to us like that?"

"I can't see through this person. I've always thought he was bluffing, including this one. ”

"What do you mean is that they don't plan to build this project, but just to make a publicity? So, do we have to continue the construction of this site in the future? We don't even need to send someone to the site, we just need to buy a satellite photo to be able to determine if they are actually building the project. Do you think the Chinese would make up such a clumsy lie for propaganda?"

Bradman was stopped by Graeme. In fact, what he said just now was just to raise the bar in order to find a proof of his misjudgment, and when Graeme said this, he was completely dumbfounded. Yes, a project with an investment of more than one billion dollars, the scale of construction is very large, whether it is really under construction, outsiders can see clearly at a glance. Through high-definition satellite pictures, OPEC experts can clearly see the layout of the equipment on the site, if this is not a set of coal-to-oil equipment, OPEC experts can also see it, Chinese as to go to great lengths to make up such a lie?

Since it is not a lie, it means that the Chinese have indeed mastered the technology of coal-to-liquid. Moreover, the one-time construction of a project with an annual output of 4 million is completely different from laboratory-level research. If their technology is not mature, it is impossible to roll out such a large scale of construction at once. The Chinese are shouting to OPEC in this way, and Bradman, as an official who has just negotiated with the Chinese side, is obliged to report the matter to the secretary-general, who will then decide whether to convene a special meeting of the council to discuss the change.

Thinking of this, Bradman could no longer sit still, he pulled Graeme, took the newspaper, and came to the secretary-general's office.

The Secretary-General listened to Bradman and Graeme's reports, and read the contents of the newspaper carefully, also frowning.

"Have you considered it when it was not an official from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce who was negotiating with you, but an official from the Equipment Industry Company?" the secretary-general asked the two.

Graeme had already thought about this issue just now, and he said: "Mr. Secretary-General, I judge that the Chinese did not have the sincerity to negotiate with us last time. They're more just trying to send me a tough signal, and their toughness comes from the coal-to-liquid technology they have mastered. This technology should be in the hands of China's equipment industry companies, so their officials will come to talk to us. ”

"That's right. The Secretary-General nodded, "Obviously, they have mastered this technology, otherwise the person in charge of the negotiations would not be this official of the Equipment Industry Company." We now have to figure out what level of technology the Chinese have mastered, and how determined they are to promote coal-to-synthetic oil at home, which will determine our strategy toward China. ”

"Graeme and I will go to China right away to find out what is going on on the spot. Bradman said solemnly.