"The intensification of unrest in North Africa seriously threatens the security situation in the region and has a direct impact on international oil prices. Since the end of last year, international oil prices have risen by 50%. According to the forecast of the Research Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, by the second half of the year, international oil prices are likely to double from the end of 2003 and reach the level of $60 per barrel. ”

In the large conference room of the National Development and Reform Commission, Wang Zhenbin, director of the department, was briefing officials from various ministries and commissions who were invited to attend the meeting.

Deputy Director Han Hong added: "OPEC's explanation for this incident is that North Africa is in turmoil, which has affected oil production. But in fact, this is a planned production and price increase by OPEC in order to make its voice heard on the international political stage. After the Iraq war, there were frequent political turmoil in several countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and the riots in North Africa were only one of the more serious ones. Governments in the Middle East and North Africa believe that the United States is meddling in the region's affairs and have resorted to oil production curbs to hit the world economy in order to gain the necessary voice. ”

"However, in this way, it is we who are most affected. A director from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission lamented, "Due to the rise in oil prices, the cost of production enterprises has risen sharply, which has greatly affected the competitiveness of our export goods." ”

"The United States itself is a big oil producer, and the impact of rising international oil prices on the United States is small, but it has a great impact on us. OPEC is trying to put pressure on us. An official of the Ministry of Finance said.

"We are too dependent on imported oil, and as I have long said, important resources must not be left in the hands of others. In the past few years, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has invested in the construction of several large oil refineries, earmarking the use of high-sulfur oil from the Middle East. I was against it at the time, those oil tyrants in the Middle East can't be trusted at all, and now you see, we have built an oil refinery, and as soon as the price of crude oil rises, we will stare at it. An old man with gray hair said with a smug look on his face.

Han Hong glanced at the old man and recognized that this person's name was Qiu Jianxing, who turned out to be the deputy minister of a certain ministry and retired to serve as the chairman of an industry association. Lao Qiu Qiren has always opposed the development of an export-oriented economy, and he did raise objections to the import of Middle Eastern sour crude oil back then.

"Minister Qiu's opinion is very reasonable, but we at the NDRC also have our own difficulties. Our country's economy is growing so fast that oil demand has increased by more than 50 percent compared to five years ago. Such a large demand for oil cannot be done completely by relying on self-production, and all the domestic oil fields can only guarantee the supply of 70% of crude oil at full capacity, and once the oil fields are at full capacity, the existing proven reserves cannot even support it for 10 years. When we run out of crude oil under our own ground, people will jam our necks again, and we won't even have the strength to breathe. ”

Han Hong replied tepidly, but in fact, he pushed back Qiu Jianxing's words. Not dependent on imported oil, sounds right, but there is nothing operable. China is not an oil-rich country, and it is a fool's dream to rely on its own oil to modernize. What's more, oil is a non-renewable resource after all. Buried in your own ground, you can mine it whenever you want, and while you can still buy oil in the international market, why not use someone else's oil first?

The officials attending the meeting also understood this truth, and everyone listened to the words of people like Qiu Jianxing, and no one would use it as a decision-making guide. The official of the Ministry of Finance who spoke earlier diverted the topic and asked Han Hong: "Director Han, what are the considerations of the NDRC in the face of rising oil prices?" What do you want from bringing us here today?"

Han Hong said: "The rise in oil prices is a general trend. As I said earlier, the NDRC Research Center predicts that oil prices may rise to $60 per barrel in the second half of the year, and the pessimistic forecast for next year is $80, which will have a great impact on our economy. I invite you to come here today, first, to give you a breath of relief, so that all ministries and commissions can take precautions and prepare for further increases in oil prices. The second aspect is to discuss the response at the national policy level. ”

"The rise in oil prices will inevitably push up the production costs of production enterprises, which in turn will affect the ex-factory prices of industrial products. We hope that the SASAC can guide its subordinate enterprises to absorb the cost pressure as much as possible, so as to avoid the cost pressure from being transferred downstream. The consumer price index for the next two years should be kept within 103 percent, and if it exceeds this level, the pressure on the people's lives will be too great. An official from the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission said.

"In terms of foreign trade, how to digest the pressure of rising crude oil prices and ensure that foreign trade exports are not affected is also a big problem. Another NDRC official in charge of foreign trade said.

"The construction of key projects cannot be affected by this......

"In agriculture, there may be a need for some financial subsidies......"

Each NDRC official made a request from his or her own area of responsibility, and the officials from the ministries and commissions who came to the meeting wrote down the demand, as well as the requirements for the NDRC. As a macroeconomic coordination unit, the NDRC is equivalent to the nerve center of the national economy, and it needs to gather the opinions of various departments, comprehensively deal with them, and then turn them into instructions to various departments. Communication like this is a common task for the NDRC.

Seeing that the exchanges with various ministries and commissions had come to an end, Han Hong changed his relaxed expression and said with a smile: "As I said just now, there are two topics for today's meeting. One is to communicate and coordinate with the ministries and commissions here to jointly deal with the pressure brought about by the rise in oil prices, which we have just talked about very well, and our departments and bureaus of the National Development and Reform Commission will maintain communication with you and implement specific measures. The second issue is how we can counter OPEC's price hikes so that they can keep oil prices at a reasonable level, or at least at a reasonable level for China. I would like to ask everyone to come up with ideas to see if there is a way to combat OPEC's arrogance and make them dare not raise prices casually. ”

"Hmph, oil is buried under people's feet, and people can rise if they want to, what can we do?" Qiu Jianxing said with a sneer. Just now, everyone was discussing the countermeasures to deal with the rise in oil prices, and he was put aside, and the old man held his breath. Now that Han Hong has brought the topic to him again, how can he not be sarcastic.

"Minister Qiu, you can't say that. Buying and selling is a matter of both parties, the seller can make an offer, and we buyers can also make a counteroffer. As a big buyer in the international oil market, China still has a certain amount of bargaining power. Wang Zhenbin said. This was supposed to be said by Han Hong, but Han Hong is a leader after all, and it is not appropriate to always scare people like this, Wang Zhenbin, as a subordinate, should come out to help. As for saying that Qiu Jianxing used to be a deputy minister, with a higher level than Wang Zhenbin, this is not to be considered, Wang Zhenbin is helping Han Hong speak, and Han Hong will naturally cover him.

Qiu Jianxing was choked by Wang Zhenbin, and he was really a little annoyed, and he said: "Director Wang, you said that we have bargaining power, why can't I see it? The several tens of millions of tons of oil refineries we have built are all designed to refine high-sulfur oil from the Middle East, and if people don't sell oil to us, our factories will stop production, so what confidence do you have to negotiate with others?"

Minister Qiu's words are wrong. An official sitting in the corner of the conference table spoke, "If people don't sell us oil, our factory will indeed shut down, and there will be losses." But the other party's oil can't be sold, and it's also a loss. We lost a few factories in profits, which we could quite afford. And if the oil-producing countries in the Middle East have unsalable oil, it won't take long, only a few months, and their economy will collapse. Minister Qiu thinks that which side is more unconfident?"

Qiu Jianxing glanced at the official and said, "I remember that the construction funds for those factories were borrowed by General Manager Feng from the Middle East, right? At that time, the National Development and Reform Commission reported it as an achievement. I said at the time that this was actually a trap given to us, and we didn't know if we got into it ourselves. Now that people have put it away, General Manager Feng told me, how are you going to solve this set?"

The official who spoke was none other than Feng Xiaochen, general manager of the State Equipment Industry Corporation, and he was actually going to play the leading role in the second half of the agenda of today's meeting. A few years ago, he took a low-interest loan from the Middle East to build several large refineries, all built to the specifications of refining high-sulfur oil from the Middle East. At that time, Qiu Jianxing was still in office, and he did say some rumors about this matter, but everyone regarded it as air and ignored it. Qiu Jianxing made trouble at this time, but he was actually trying to regain the face of the year.

"Ladies and gentlemen, the second thing I just said was put forward by Comrade Xiaochen. Han Hong took over Qiu Jianxing's words and said to everyone: "In fact, a few years ago, when the Equipment Industry Company led the construction of three 10-million-ton oil refineries, Comrade Xiaochen raised the issue of preventing the risk of rising crude oil prices in the Middle East, which coincided with Minister Qiu's views. However, the plan put forward by Comrade Xiaochen is not to reject Middle East crude oil, but to work hard to improve our internal skills and accumulate hole cards, so that when Middle Eastern oil exporting countries use oil as a weapon, we can have the strength to fight back. Now that the predictions of Comrade Xiaochen and Minister Qiu have indeed happened, we ask Comrade Xiaochen to tell us how the Equipment Industry Corporation intends to respond to the challenge of the Middle East oil exporters. …… Xiaochen, do you want to sit down with me?"

In the last sentence, Han Hong said it to Feng Xiaochen with a smile. The position of the leader, of course, is not something that can be casually given to others to sit, Han Hong just hinted to everyone in this way that the meaning of what Feng Xiaochen wanted to say was recognized by the leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission, and everyone should not underestimate the general manager of the equipment company.