Peter, has the market recently entered a new investor, how do you feel that the long position has increased a lot?"

In London, Deutsche Bank's oil futures boss Werner Heisenberg reviewed the daily closing data and found that something was not right.

Positions that have been held overnight seem to be somewhat above average.

"Boss, the trading volume has increased a lot, and I see that it has been off by almost a million barrels per day recently. Trader Peter looked at the trading data on his computer.

"And this volume is a long trade, and it seems that there are indeed new investors in the market. ”

"A million barrels a day?" said Werner Heisenberg's brow, the Brent crude oil futures market has more than 65 million barrels a day, which is not too much, and it is not too little.

The key is that this data deviation is that the long position has also increased simultaneously, indicating that there are funds that are consciously absorbing and optimistic about the continued strength of oil in the later period.

"Yes, boss, from the perspective of the position, this investor seems to be doing long-term, not intraday trading, and the overnight position is increasing simultaneously. "Peter is a veteran trader and of course very sensitive to data.

After the boss raised the anomaly, Peter naturally also saw the clues about the data variation.

"One million barrels a day is not a small amount, and it is through the channels to find out who the capital is entering. As head of Deutsche Bank's Oil Futures department, Werner Heisenberg is concerned about all uncertainties.

The futures market is originally a zero-sum market, in fact, in addition to the exchange is to earn transaction fees and make a steady profit, there must be some people who make profits and some people who lose, and it is impossible for everyone to make money.

This is a gambling game on future oil price expectations, and the exchange is equivalent to providing the same commission as the land mark.

"Okay, boss, I'm sure Johnson doesn't expect unpredictable catfish either. "The Johnson in Peter's mouth is the head of the London Petroleum Exchange, and basically the list of major investors in the exchange is in his hands.

"Let's do it, after we figure it out, let's take some measures, the recent market has risen a little too fast, a lot of followers are pouring in, and it's not easy for us to make money, it's time to let everyone calm down." ”

Werner Heisenberg said lightly.

As one of the super big players in the exchange, with the exception of the top investment banks on Wall Street, Deutsche Bank is qualified to be a chess player, not a helpless pawn in the market.

Peter was very efficient and basically figured out the situation after a phone call.

"Boss, the exchange has indeed added a new large account recently, it is said to be the capital from Oriental Xiangjiang, and the funds injected into the exchange have exceeded 500 million US dollars, but in terms of transaction data, Johnson said that it is not convenient to disclose it for the time being. ”

When Peter got the news, he reported to Werner Heisenberg.

"It's inconvenient to disclose, it's just asking for money, Johnson, a greedy guy, takes at least $500,000 a year from our Deutsche Bank for information, and now his appetite is getting bigger and bigger. Werner Heisenberg said with great displeasure.

"The capital of the bet is hundreds of millions of dollars, and it can be regarded as a role in the exchange, and it is understandable that Johnson is waiting for the price to sell, but we don't need to give this money anymore, since we already know the origin of the other party, and now the increase in the market is also very clear, indicating that there is a high probability that this capital is absorbing goods. ”

Werner Heisenberg knows that the exchange is such a virtue, and it must not be offended by super large investors, these are all food and clothing, and the exchange cannot afford to offend, so some less sensitive data is of course top secret for ordinary retail traders, but for Deutsche Bank, a world-class top investment bank, there is nothing to keep secret.

Of course, the exchange will still protect each other's data and information between top investment banks, and will not easily disclose each other's trade secrets.

The investment data of these top investment banks, unless they privately connect with the market, they still do their own thing.

Almost at the same time, the Da Mo Oil Futures Department also found a small change in the market, but for Da Mo, this trading volume was not enough to attract their attention, but only included this change in observation, and did not even inquire about the origin like the Deutsche Bank Oil Futures Department.

For trading volumes of up to tens of millions of barrels per day, a change of one or two million barrels can hardly make waves.

Xiangjiang, Fan Junyu, who is trading remotely, couldn't help but feel a little heartbeat when he looked at the position on his computer.

After this period of accumulation, he has bought a full 100,000 long positions.

In other words, Fan Junyu has locked in 100 million barrels of oil in the next six months with the current price of more than 24 US dollars!

This is more than 20 billion Hong Kong dollars of oil, and such a huge transaction volume is the first time in his life that Fan Junyu has placed an order to absorb it.

If this oil falls by $1 per barrel in the future, then this position will lose $100 million!

This is the charm and temptation of futures, which can operate huge volumes of goods with only a small amount of margin.

However, the risk is also staggering, Liu Ruoyi smashed the 500 million US dollars into the London oil trading market, if it encounters a black Friday of oil futures, a drop of two or three US dollars, a minute is the end of passive liquidation and no return.

Is the timing really worth making such a heavy bet? Although Fan Junyu said that he is also optimistic about the future trend of oil, after all, the tension in the Gulf has not improved.

The technical trend of the market is also bullish.

But the most important characteristic of the futures market is that the ups and downs are capricious, and it may be tomorrow that a major political event will cause the entire market to reverse.

Not only is his London market almost full, but Liu Neng's position in New York has also reached its peak.

"Mr. Cai, our position is so heavy now, do you choose the opportunity to make some adjustments?" Fan Junyu cautiously suggested.

Although it has risen slightly during this period, the increasing number of long positions has increased the floating profit figures, but these floating profits are all virtual before the position is closed.

"Yes, Mr. Cai, the 15-minute and 30-minute moving averages of WTI crude oil futures show signs of catching up with the top, and in the short term, the volume and price divergence has appeared, and the rise lacks momentum. Liu Neng also felt that this small wave of market seemed to have reached an opportunity to end.

Although the WTI crude oil futures market is not fully synchronized with Brent crude oil futures.

Tony Chua stared at the short-term charts of the two markets, both of which came out of a slight upward trend after oscillating around $24.5 and are now basically standing above $25.

The 15-minute moving average is flat, and there is a tendency to meet the 30-minute moving average, which is an opportunity for a short-term closure from the perspective of quantitative trading.

In terms of short-term returns, the floating profit of the two accounts that are almost full of positions exceeds 30 million US dollars! It seems that a short-term settlement is not bad.

It's just that after Tony Cai pondered for a long time, he still felt that there was something wrong.

"Looking at the 60-minute moving average and the 10-day moving average, it is still a perfect upward channel.

Like Liu Ruoyi's judgment, Long-term Tony Cai is bullish, but futures trading is inherently a zero-sum game, and if there is no certain means, whether it is long or short, you can't get enough chips.

Although cornerstone investment has become a member of the bulls through chip absorption, it is difficult to say that if you are not careful, you will be washed out at any time.

In the futures market, although there is no market maker who completely controls the market, there are top investment banks and speculative funds in it, and it is almost possible to lure short and long at any time and place.

These big families have abundant capital, and the innate conditions and time to make waves are completely on their side.

Through wave after wave of operations, between ups and downs, it is constantly harvested from retail investors and small investors in the market.

Short-term trading charts, these large traders can be made through operations.

Therefore, Tony Cai has devoted himself to studying quantitative trading for more than ten years, which is how to grasp the short-term swing band on the basis of judging the general trend.

"The 60-minute moving average and the 10-day moving average are running in an ideal match and look like they are still on an upward trajectory, could it be that the 15-minute moving average and the 30-minute moving average are made by big investors to lure shorts?" Liu Neng and Fan Junyu looked at the trend pointed out by Tony Cai, and their judgment was also a little shaken in their hearts.

Indeed, it is too difficult to see the short-term volatility in the intraday, and many times it has to rely on luck.

"Then let's continue to hold the position?" asked Fan Junyu with some hesitation.

Among the three, his qualifications are the weakest, and his relative personality is relatively soft, so in the real test, Liu Ruoyi's upward trend is not wrong, and his real results are also in the middle of the three applicants, which can only be regarded as decent.

"If you want to judge the intention of the dealer, we will test the handicap tomorrow, now we have enough chips in our hands, tomorrow to the 15-minute moving average as the main point of operation, if it falls below the 15-minute moving average, we will do a wave of short-term shorts, the long position closed three percent!

If it continues to fall, we will add the short position to three percent, once the short-term decline is established, the long position continues to close two percent, keep the next fifty percent of the long wait-and-see, by the way to the bookmakers to say hello. Tony Tsai said calmly.

"......" For Tony Cai's operation, Liu Neng doesn't know what to say.

"......" Fan Junyu was even more startled, although he said that he was a little afraid of heights for the current position, but he suddenly closed three to fifty percent, which was inevitably a bit bigger.

You must know that the trading volume of the London oil futures market is now more than 60 million barrels a day, and if the volume released here at once accounts for half of it, such a long position will be closed, and the market will inevitably be turbulent on the day.

What's more, listening to Boss Cai's meaning, this time the London market and the New York market will be linked together?

What kind of sassy operation is this, and say hello?

What is the intention of this, Fan Junyu really can't see through it for a while.

"Ah Jun, Ah Neng, don't think too much, let's plunge into the oil futures circle like this, don't say hello to those bigwigs, the days ahead will be more difficult, especially our scale that can't go up or down, it's very tiring. ”

Looking at the confused looks of the two, Tony Cai knew that the two were not familiar with the gameplay of this circle.

But it doesn't matter, everyone will become familiar with it when you do more.

This kind of operation is similar to fire reconnaissance, where bulls and bears alternately hold positions in the short term, which can smoothly hedge against possible sharp fluctuations in the market, and at the same time, with goods in hand, it can also launch a short-term light blow at a delicate moment in the market.

If there are really people making a market in this short-term market, Tony Tsai's operation will attract the attention of the other party, so as to give a response signal in the market.

Is everyone together, or are they ready to fight each other without declaring a war?

Generally, it will be reflected in the market outlook.

This is a unique way of communication between top investment banks, because in mature markets, tandem market making is illegal, so everyone will reach an agreement through other forms.

Fan Junyu and Liu Neng do not have decision-making experience in top investment banks, and of course they feel a bit unfathomable about Tony Cai's operation, and they are even more confused.

However, Tony Cai did not continue to explain, this kind of thing should not be made public, if you understand it, you will understand, and if you don't understand it, there is no way.

Among the three, Tony Cai is the boss, although the three of them can discuss the market or operate together, but it is Tony Cai who makes the final decision, Fan Junyu and Liu Neng silently remember this and are ready to wait and see.

The two of them used to have a small fight in Xiangjiang, and the customers were not too tyrants, and most of the funds they helped people operate in a year were tens of millions of dollars, like this kind of move was a large amount of principal of billions of Hong Kong dollars, and the target was tens of billions of operations, and both of them encountered it for the first time.

It seems that he used to play the same set as a retail investor, and it would be nice to be able to drink some soup with the dealer, but now Tony Tsai's obvious operation ideas are different.

Could it be that this is the operation method of the market maker to eat meat?

No matter what, write it down first, it seems that this time to invest in cornerstone is really eye-opening.

The next day, there were signs of short luring in intraday trading, Liu Neng and Fan Junyu did not hesitate to close the long positions according to the established strategy, and then establish short positions.

The market fell by a hundredth of a percent on the day, setting a new high for a recent intraday decline.

The bulls on the cornerstone investment side closed 50% of their positions before the big fall, and at the same time established a short position of 50% of the positions, which was just offset in this intraday decline, and the profits of the bulls were firmly in their hands.

Before the two markets closed separately, Tony Cai decisively asked the two to close the short positions within the day, so that the day's operation in the case of market turmoil, smoothly pocketed half of the gains of the long positions, and at the same time safely reduced the position to half.

Holding positions overnight in this way, in the face of the turbulent market the next day, cornerstone investment is obviously more comfortable on the side.

In this first air-to-air encounter, Tony Chua's strategy was a big win.

It's just that I don't know if the bigwigs in the field have received this information.